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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/bitcoin-analysis-jamie-dimon-warren-buffett/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 15:25
Bitcoin analysis for Monday June 24 and Friday November 22, 2019
2019年6月24日星期一和11月22日星期五的比特币分析
Video duration: 15min 26sec. Apologies for low quality audio.
视频时长：15分26秒。 抱歉音质不佳。
Monday June 24, 2019: A question on Bitcoin. Part 1 duration: 10min
2019年6月24日星期一：关于比特币的问题。第一部分时长：10分钟
Bitcoin, if you’ve been paying any attention to it, has been doing great. This is the Bitcoin Index. I threw up the weekly chart. That was last year’s blow off top. We had a Triangle, a bear breakout, and then a reversal up, and three legs up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
如果你一直在关注比特币，就会发现它表现得非常好。这是比特币指数。我放上了周线图。那是去年的高潮顶部。我们有一个三角形，一个空头突破，然后向上反转，三个推进段——一，回撤，二，回撤，三。
Ten – this was a likely resistance area. Ten, a big round number, likely a resistance area. But this is up very strongly. We have another resistance here, so spike, pullback, channel. However, I think the odds are we’re going higher. How much higher? I don’t know.
十——这可能是一个阻力区域。十，一个大整数，可能是阻力区域。但这上涨得非常强劲。我们这里还有另一个阻力位，所以是急涨、回撤、通道。然而，我认为我们上涨的概率更大。能涨多少？我不知道。
Bitcoin is like gold
比特币就像黄金。
Bitcoin is kind of like gold. You have a bunch of idiots on TV that say irrational things. When it’s going down, they say it’s going to go up, so all the way down, they kept saying, “It’s a buy, it’s a buy, it’s a buy, it’s a buy, it’s a buy,” right? And on the way up, “It’s a buy, it’s a buy, it’s a buy.” It’s like gold. Whenever gold is going down, you’ll hear the gold bugs on TV say, “Ah, it’s going down. You’ve got to buy it. It’s great value. It’s cheap.” And when it’s going up, they’ll say, “Oh, you’ve got to buy it. It’s going up. The momentum is good.”
比特币有点像黄金。电视上有很多白痴说一些不理智的话。当价格下跌时，他们说它会上涨，所以在整个下跌过程中，他们一直说：“买入，买入，买入，买入，买入”，对吧？而在上涨过程中，他们说：“买入，买入，买入。” 这就像黄金。每当黄金下跌时，你会在电视上听到黄金虫说：“啊，它下跌了。你必须买入。它很有价值。它很便宜。” 当它上涨时，他们会说：“哦，你必须买入。它正在上涨。动能很好。”
If you ask them, “When do you sell it?”, they’ll pause and say, “Oh, we never sell it. We always buy it.” The same is true with Bitcoin. There are people – most of the people they put on television are Bitcoin crazies, just like the gold crazies. No matter what Bitcoin is doing, it’s a buy. “Oh, pullback here, it’s a pullback. It’s a buy.” Yeah, but if you bought here, you lost 75%. It only came down to $3,000.
如果你问他们：“什么时候卖出？”他们会停顿一下，说：“哦，我们从不卖出。我们总是买入。” 比特币也是一样。电视上出现的人——大多数都是比特币狂热分子，就像黄金狂热分子一样。无论比特币怎么走，都是买入时机。“哦，这里回撤了，是回撤。买入。” 是的，但如果你在这里买入，你会亏损75%。它只跌到了3000美元。
In a bull trend
在多头趋势中。
So it’s clearly in a bull trend. Big, big reversal, but it went above this resistance, above this, above that, and it’s testing this. A lot of traders want to buy pullbacks. This is the weekly chart. Usually once you get a pullback, you don’t want to buy it because it looks like a bear trend reversal.
所以它显然处于多头趋势中。虽然出现了大幅反转，但它突破了这个阻力位，突破了这个，突破了那个，现在正在测试这个。许多交易者都想买入回撤。这是周线图。通常情况下，一旦出现回撤，你就不想买入，因为它看起来像是空头趋势反转。
So for example, here. Here’s a pullback in a bull trend. It’s a Higher Low, but nobody wants to buy it. Up here, everybody wants to buy it, but that’s really not a good place to buy it. You want to buy a pullback. Daily chart, got a pullback here, pullback here. These are the times when you buy it, and you can see so many traders bought, we got a gap up.
比如说，这里。这是多头趋势中的一个回撤，是更高的低点，但没人想买入。在上面这里，每个人都想买入，但那其实不是一个好的买入位置。你应该买入回撤。日线图，这里有一个回撤，这里有一个回撤。这些是你应该买入的时机，你可以看到很多交易者都买入了，我们出现了跳空上涨。
I would not buy it up here. If you want, you could trade really small, but your stop is down here or down here, so you’re risking 30%, and that is a lot to risk. It’s probably better to just patiently wait, or to get closer to the Moving Average and then buy above a bull bar and try to get the next leg up.
我不会在这里买入。如果你想交易，可以非常小仓位操作，但你的止损位在这里或这里，所以你承担了30%的风险，这风险太大了。或许最好耐心等待，或者等价格接近均线后，在多头K线上方买入，尝试捕捉下一波上涨。
Do I think it’s going up to a thousand, a million, pick a big number? I don’t know. Everybody calls it digital gold. They don’t really say what they mean by that. I do think it’s digital gold. I think it’s a storehouse of value. There are enough buyers below so that at least for the next year or two or three, it’s probably not going to go to zero. Traders will buy selloffs.
我认为它会涨到一千、一百万，还是某个更大的数字吗？我不知道。每个人都称它为数字黄金。但他们并没有真正解释这句话的含义。我确实认为它是数字黄金。我认为它是一种价值储存手段。下方有足够的买盘，所以至少在未来一两年或三年内，它可能不会归零。交易者会买入抛售。
Bitcoin as a currency?
比特币作为一种货币？
But I do not think it’s ever going to be a currency. I talked about this a month or two ago. It has a fundamental problem. The nature of its structure, the nature of how the transactions are confirmed, is a huge problem because right now, the fastest a transaction can get confirmed is they can do 7 a second. You’ve got to be able to do 50,000 a second, right? But the way Bitcoin is structured and the way the confirmations take place, it’s impossible to do 50,000 a second.
但我不认为它会成为一种货币。我一两个月前就谈过这个问题。它有一个根本性的问题。其结构的本质，以及交易确认的方式，是一个巨大的问题，因为目前，一笔交易最快能被确认的速度是每秒7笔。你必须能够处理每秒50,000笔交易，对吧？但比特币的结构和确认方式决定了它不可能达到每秒50,000笔交易。
If you look at Visa or MasterCard, do you think they can only process 10 transactions a second? No, they can process thousands a second, and that’s what Bitcoin has to be able to do if it’s going to become an actual currency – a currency being an item you can use to buy things and sell things. I don’t see that happening. Bitcoin, it would have to totally change its structure. Keep the name, but totally change the structure.
如果你看看Visa或万事达卡，你认为它们只能处理每秒10笔交易吗？不，它们可以处理每秒数千笔交易，而比特币要成为真正的货币——一种可以用来买卖东西的货币——就必须能够做到这一点。我不认为这会发生。比特币必须彻底改变其结构，保留名称，但彻底改变结构。
Bitcoin alternatives – Libra?
比特币替代品——天秤币？
More likely what will happen is some of the other coins that allow a lot more transactions per second will become the main currencies. For example, Facebook has Libra. They’re designing that to basically replace credit cards, and on the surface, you say, “Ah, that sounds good. I pay a 3% credit card fee, and therefore if I trade Libra, everything will be 3% less.” No. Facebook is going to pocket that 3%, so you will not pay a penny less.
更可能发生的情况是，其他允许每秒处理更多交易的加密货币将成为主要货币。例如，Facebook 有 Libra。他们设计 Libra 的目的主要是为了取代信用卡，表面上看，你可能会说：“啊，这听起来不错。我支付 3% 的信用卡手续费，所以如果我交易 Libra，所有费用都会减少 3%。”不，Facebook 会把这 3% 收入囊中，所以你不会少付一分钱。
Also, for example, one of my credit cards, I get 3% back. So… I don’t know how the credit card company makes any money. Every transaction I get, I get 3% back. I don’t see how Libra offers any advantage. It offers an advantage to Facebook because to use Libra, you’re probably going to have to deposit money into Facebook, like a bank. Facebook then has billions of dollars sitting in an account, and they can lend it out like a bank, and they can collect the flow.
另外，举个例子，我的其中一张信用卡可以返现3%。所以，我不知道信用卡公司是怎么赚钱的。我每笔交易都能获得3%的返现。我看不出Libra有什么优势。它对Facebook有利，因为要使用Libra，你可能需要像银行一样向Facebook存入资金。Facebook随后会在账户中坐拥数十亿美元，他们可以像银行一样将其借出，并收取资金流。
So they can make a ton of money off Libra. Plus, a lot of people will start buying on their site the way they buy on Amazon, and they’ll keep more eyeballs on Facebook. More people will click on ads and buy things on Facebook, and Facebook gets paid for every one of those clicks. So Libra is a really good thing for Facebook, and that I think has a much better chance of actually being a currency, a method of payment and transactions, than Bitcoin.
所以他们可以从 Libra 上赚很多钱。此外，许多人会开始像在亚马逊上购物一样在他们的网站上购物，这将让更多人留在 Facebook 上。更多人会在 Facebook 上点击广告并购买商品，而 Facebook 会为每次点击付费。所以 Libra 对 Facebook 来说是一件非常好的事情，我认为它比比特币更有可能真正成为一种货币、一种支付和交易方式。
Bitcoin is like gold
比特币就像黄金。
Bitcoin is going to be kind of the old granddad, kind of like gold. You can take gold to Walmart and you buy a candy bar and see what happens. You can’t use it. You cannot go with a block of gold into Walmart and buy soup, right?
比特币会像黄金一样，成为某种“老古董”。你可以拿着黄金去沃尔玛，买一根糖果，看看会发生什么。你用不了它。你不能拿着一块黄金去沃尔玛买汤，对吧？
And Bitcoin I think is going to have the same problem. It’s not going to be used for transactions; it’s going to be like gold, a store of value. You buy it because you think it’s secure and you think all other cryptocurrencies will somehow be correlated to Bitcoin, and as long as enough people keep investing in Bitcoin, the whole cryptocurrency market will be stable and people will not panic out and send everything to zero overnight.
我认为比特币也会面临同样的问题。它不会被用于交易，而是会像黄金一样，成为一种价值储存手段。你购买它，是因为你认为它安全，并且认为所有其他加密货币都会与比特币产生某种关联。只要有足够多的人继续投资比特币，整个加密货币市场就会保持稳定，人们就不会恐慌性抛售，导致价格一夜之间归零。
That’s one of the complaints about Bitcoin. If the cryptocurrencies die, if the United States government says cryptocurrencies are illegal – for example, a lot of countries, cryptocurrencies are illegal. I think India, I think cryptocurrencies are illegal. Anyway, there are a bunch of countries where cryptocurrencies are illegal.
这就是人们对比特币抱怨的原因之一。如果加密货币消亡了，如果美国政府宣布加密货币非法——例如，许多国家都认为加密货币是违法的。我认为印度就是这样，我认为加密货币在那里是非法的。总之，有很多国家都把加密货币视为非法。
If one day you wake up, turn on the news, and you see the United States just decreed, or the Federal Reserve just decreed that, or the SEC, or anybody, just decreed that cryptocurrencies are illegal, a pyramid scheme, right, or a Ponzi scheme, Bitcoin could go to zero overnight. That’s the risk.
如果有一天你醒来，打开新闻，发现美国政府、美联储、SEC 或其他任何机构刚刚宣布加密货币是违法的、是金字塔骗局或庞氏骗局，比特币可能在一夜之间归零。这就是风险所在。
I don’t think that’s going to happen, and I think it won’t happen because the government knows that cryptocurrencies and blockchain transactions are probably going to be around for a lot of years, and banks will start incorporating them.
我认为这不会发生，因为政府知道加密货币和区块链交易 可能会持续很多年，银行也会开始 将其纳入体系。
Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett
杰米·戴蒙和沃伦·巴菲特
A year ago, Jamie Dimon , the most respected banker in the country for the past 10 years, CEO of JPMorgan, said Bitcoin was garbage and cryptocurrencies were garbage. Well, JPMorgan is now starting to use cryptocurrencies. Warren Buffett, considered the world’s greatest investor possibly in history, has said that Bitcoin is rat poison, “triple rat poison.” But, you know, he also said Google was stupid when Google came up about 10 years ago, and he did not buy Google.
一年前，过去十年来国内最受尊敬的银行家、摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）说比特币是垃圾，加密货币也是垃圾。但现在，摩根大通开始使用加密货币了。被誉为历史上可能最伟大的投资者的沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾说比特币是老鼠药，是“三倍剂量的老鼠药”。但你知道，大约十年前谷歌刚出现时，他也说谷歌很愚蠢，并且没有买入谷歌。
Warren Buffett is very good at picking candy stores to buy. Underwear, like Fruit of the Loom, to buy. Furniture stores, like RC Willey. He’s not so good at picking other things. I think he’s a really wise person. But when it comes to actually picking stocks, I would not pay much attention to what Warren Buffett does. If you look at the stuff he buys, do you really want to buy Fruit of the Loom? Do you really want to buy See’s Candy? Do you want to buy craft booze? No, you don’t want to buy the garbage that he buys. Geico, he owns Geico. Do you want to buy Geico? No.
沃伦·巴菲特非常擅长挑选糖果店来买入，比如内衣品牌Fruit of the Loom，家具店比如RC Willey。他不擅长挑选其他东西。我认为他是一个非常聪明的人。但说到实际选股，我不会太关注沃伦·巴菲特做什么。如果你看看他买的东西，你真的想买Fruit of the Loom吗？你真的想买See’s Candy吗？你想买手工酒吗？不，你不想买他买的那些垃圾。Geico，他拥有Geico。你想买Geico吗？不。
But if he gets an 8% return or a 6% return, everyone says he’s a genius – and he is. It’s a really profitable thing. But as a trader or an investor, he’s buying stuff that you don’t want to buy. I would not pay much attention to what Warren Buffett says when it comes to Google, and I would not pay much attention to what Warren Buffett says when it comes to cryptocurrency.
但如果他获得8%的回报或6%的回报，大家都会说他是个天才——他确实是。这是一件非常赚钱的事。但作为交易者或投资者，他买的东西是你不想买的。当谈到谷歌时，我不会太在意沃伦·巴菲特说了什么，当谈到加密货币时，我也不会太在意沃伦·巴菲特说了什么。
Where is Bitcoin going next?
比特币接下来会去哪里？
So three legs up, no sign of a top. Can we come down and test this gap, a 50% pullback? I don’t know. Near term, 10,000 is probably going to be support. This high might be support. This low, 8,000, might be support. But this is up so strongly, I think we’re going higher.
Tom Lee, who all through here kept saying “Bitcoin’s a buy, Bitcoin’s a buy,” right? He’s now again saying, “Bitcoin’s a buy, and we’re going above this.” I don’t know. Certainly, has a lot of momentum. We may go up above the all-time high. But it’s a strong enough move up, traders will buy pullbacks, just like when it was going down, smart traders were selling rallies, although it was difficult to short Bitcoin.
已经向上推进了三波，没有出现顶部信号。我们会回落并测试这个缺口吗？一个50%的回撤？我不知道。短期来看，10,000点可能成为支撑位。这个高点可能成为支撑位。这个低点，8,000点，也可能成为支撑位。但价格上涨得如此强劲，我认为我们还会继续上涨。
汤姆·李，他一直在这里说“比特币是买入信号，比特币是买入信号”，对吧？他现在又说：“比特币是买入信号，我们会突破这个点位。”我不知道。当然，它有很大的动能。我们可能会突破历史新高。但这是一次强劲的上涨，交易者会买入回撤，就像在下跌时，聪明的交易者会卖出反弹一样，尽管做空比特币很难。
Monday June 24, 2019: “Any update on Bitcoin?” Part 2 duration: 5min 26sec
2019年6月24日，星期一：“比特币有最新消息吗？”第二部分，时长：5分26秒
I’ve been looking at Bitcoin. To me, it’s kind of amusing. I’m not writing about it this weekend. If you’re watching Bitcoin, that’s an ETF version of it, and this is the real-time cash index for Bitcoin.
我一直在关注比特币。对我来说，这有点有趣。我这个周末不会写关于它的文章。如果你在关注比特币，那就是它的ETF版本，这是比特币的实时现金指数。
Up here, I said we’d break below 10,000. Down here, I said we’d fail at 10,000. I said we’d come down to about 7,500 at a minimum, but we may come all the way down here. First leg up, pullback, second leg up, pullback, third leg up. I suspect that we’re going to start to go sideways here. This could be a pullback from this. Sometimes the pullback goes below the bottom of the bull trend. But when it does, if you reverse up, you usually enter a Trading Range. So I think Bitcoin is going to be sideways for at least another month or two. Do we get back up here? Do we go up to a million, up to two million, like some people are saying? I don’t know.
上面我说过我们会跌破10,000点。下面我说过我们会在10,000点失败。我说过我们至少会跌到7,500点左右，但我们可能会一直跌到这里。第一波上涨，回撤，第二波上涨，回撤，第三波上涨。我怀疑我们将开始在这里横盘整理。这可能是对之前的回撤。有时回撤会跌破多头趋势的底部。但当它发生时，如果你反向向上，通常会进入一个交易区间。所以我认为比特币至少在未来一两个月内会横盘整理。我们能否回到这里？我们能否像有些人说的那样涨到一百万、两百万？我不知道。
Bitcoin’s structural problem
比特币的结构性问题
My fundamental problem with Bitcoin – I’ve mentioned this before – is the structure of it. It cannot be used for cash transaction. Realistically, it cannot compete with credit cards because the way the math works with Bitcoin, they can only do about 7 transactions a second. So if you have billions of people around the world using Bitcoin, a lot of seconds during the day, there probably will be more than 7 people making a transaction. There will probably be thousands of transactions. MasterCard, Visa, they can handle that. Bitcoin cannot.
我对比特币的基本问题——我之前提到过——是它的结构。它不能用于现金交易。实际上，它无法与信用卡竞争，因为比特币的数学运算方式只能处理约每秒7笔交易。所以如果全球有数十亿人使用比特币，一天中的许多秒内，可能有超过7个人进行交易。可能会有成千上万的交易。万事达卡、Visa可以处理这些，但比特币不能。
So Bitcoin has a structural problem that – I don’t think there’s any solution to it, and if you fix it, then it’s no longer Bitcoin. It’s something else. So I think that is a big, big problem for Bitcoin, and that means it’s not really going to be used as digital currency.
所以比特币有一个结构性问题——我认为这个问题没有解决方案，如果你修复它，那它就不再是比特币了，而是其他东西。所以我认为这是比特币的一个大问题，这意味着它实际上不会被用作数字货币。
If it’s not digital currency, then what is it? Then it’s a store of value – basically, a gold replacement. Gold has the advantage of having a second reason to own it, and that’s that it’s pretty. People like to own things that are gold. Bitcoin doesn’t have that. I’m not confident of Bitcoin’s future.
如果它不是数字货币，那它是什么？那它就是价值储存工具——本质上是黄金的替代品。黄金有一个额外的优势，那就是它很漂亮，人们喜欢拥有黄金制品。比特币没有这个优势。我对比特币的未来不抱信心。
Bitcoin analysis
比特币分析
You can argue Wedge bull flag, one, two, three, testing that low. It looks like an Expanding Triangle – one, two, three. This is the daily chart. But I’m currently flat. To me, it looks like we’re probably going to bounce here, and we’re probably going to be in a range between today’s low and 10,000, maybe for the next month or two or three.
你可以认为这是一个楔形多头旗形，一、二、三，测试那个低点。它看起来像一个扩张三角形——一、二、三。这是日线图。但我目前持平仓。对我来说，我们可能会在这里反弹，并在未来一两个月或三个月内处于今天的低点和10,000点之间的区间内。
More on Jamie and Warren
关于杰米和沃伦的更多内容
But I’m not as hostile toward Bitcoin as some people like Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett are. It’s actually fairly surprising to me how angry they are at Bitcoin, how condescending they are. I can understand Jamie Dimon wanting it to go away, because he’s a banker, and he deals with dollars, currencies. He doesn’t want everybody to take their dollars and put them into something else, like Bitcoin. He’s going to do whatever he can to make Bitcoin go away.
但我对比特币的敌意没有杰米·戴蒙和沃伦·巴菲特等人那么大。我对他们对比特币的愤怒和傲慢态度感到非常惊讶。我能理解杰米·戴蒙希望比特币消失，因为他是银行家，他处理的是美元、货币。他不希望每个人都把他们的美元拿去投资其他东西，比如比特币。他会尽一切努力让比特币消失。
But Warren Buffett – I understand Warren Buffett’s argument. He prides himself in being simple and real. He wants to buy things that you can easily see and relate to, so he’ll buy See’s Candy or Geico insurance or Fruit of the Loom underwear or a whole bunch of small furniture stories around the country or a lot of Apple stock. So he buys things that you can see and touch and feel and like. He does not buy intangibles, especially things that you cannot describe in one sentence. Bitcoin, try describing it in one sentence and have somebody understand what you’re talking about. It’s not going to happen.
但沃伦·巴菲特——我理解沃伦·巴菲特的观点。他自诩简单真实。他想买那些你能轻易看到和理解的东西，所以他会买See’s Candy糖果、Geico保险、Fruit of the Loom内衣，或者全国各地的许多小型家具店，或者大量苹果股票。所以他买的是那些你能看到、触摸、感觉到并喜欢的东西。他不买无形资产，尤其是那些你无法用一句话描述清楚的东西。比特币，试着用一句话描述它，让别人理解你在说什么。这不可能实现。
So anyway, I think Bitcoin has some fundamental problems, and I don’t believe that – I don’t think it has a great future. It may be around forever, and it may become a digital gold or a repository or money, especially since it seems like it’s a pretty good setup for criminals. So I think they’ll want to keep it around.
总之，我认为比特币存在一些根本性问题，我不相信——我不认为它有美好的未来。它可能永远存在，并可能成为数字黄金或货币存储手段，尤其是因为它似乎是犯罪分子的理想工具。所以我认为他们会希望保留它。
Concluding comments
总结评论
But it doesn’t make sense that it’s going to be the digital currency. The people who are doing it are not the powerful people on Wall Street. If there’s going to be a digital currency, it’s not going to come from Bitcoin. It’s going to come from Apple or Amazon or Google – in other words, Silicon Valley. Or it’s going to come from New York City. JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs or something like that, from the banks, or from the tech sector.
It’s not going to be this thing that kind of appears out of nowhere, nobody knows who created it, and it’s not transactional. I don’t see that Bitcoin has a future other than fun to talk about, fun to speculate. At this point, at least, I don’t see how it’ll be widely accepted, and I don’t see how it will attract a lot of dollars. But I could be wrong.
但它成为数字货币是不合理的。从事这项工作的人并不是华尔街的权贵。如果要有数字货币，它不会来自比特币。它会来自苹果、亚马逊或谷歌——也就是说，硅谷。或者它会来自纽约市。来自摩根大通、摩根士丹利、高盛之类的银行，或者来自科技行业。
它不会是那种从无处冒出来的东西，没人知道是谁创造的，而且它不具备交易性。我认为比特币除了作为谈资和投机对象外，没有未来。至少在目前，我看不出它如何被广泛接受，也看不出它如何吸引大量资金。但我可能错了。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于阿尔的在线日间交易室的信息