本文为 MEPA 导入的中英对照学习资料，原文归原作者及原站所有；中文译文尚未逐篇校对。页面日期为本站收录日期，原资料生成时间不代表原文发布日期。
原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/brazil-price-action-video-podcast/ 生成时间: 2026-09-03 20:15
Video duration 1hr 6min. Podcast first published January 28, 2020 by Portal Price Action, Brazil, for the Brazilian Brooks Price Action community.
视频时长1小时6分钟。播客由巴西的Portal Price Action于2020年1月28日首次发布，面向巴西的Brooks价格行为社区。
Brazil’s legion of Al Brooks price action fans
巴西的众多 Al Brooks 价格行为（PA）粉丝们
FELIPPE: Hi, Al. How are you?
FELIPPE：嗨，Al，你好吗？
AL: I’m very well, Felippe. Thank you for inviting me.
AL：我很好，Felippe。谢谢你邀请我。
FELIPPE: Thank you for being here, for attending this interview. As you know, Portal Price Action is a community dedicated to price action with over 15,000 fanatics for your methodology here in Brazil. We study and apply it every day. The following questions are the results of those questions from these traders that I compiled and rephrased here to fit.
FELIPPE：感谢你来到这里参加这次访谈。正如你所知，Portal Price Action 是一个专注于价格行为的社区，在巴西有超过 15,000 名你的交易方法的狂热粉丝。我们每天都在研究和应用它。以下问题是这些交易者提出的问题，我将其整理并重新表述以适应这里。
The first question is about it. You are an Amazon bestselling author and have fans all over the world, but are you aware that thousands of people love you here in Brazil? How do you feel about having a legion of engaged fans from a country that cannot even speak your language, nor have access to the crème de la crème of material you have produced?
第一个问题是关于这个的。你是亚马逊畅销书作家，在全球拥有众多粉丝，但你知道吗，在巴西这里，有成千上万的人爱你？对于一个连你的语言都不会说、也无法接触到你所创作的顶级材料的国家，拥有如此庞大的忠实粉丝群体，你有何感想？
AL: I’m flattered, but that’s not my motivation. I wanted to help people. It took me a long time to understand how to trade, and it’s amazing to me that there are no very good resources out there to help people learn how to trade. If you work for Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan, they’ll teach you. They’ll teach you some things in business school. But the vast majority of other people, they have no way to learn how to trade except on their own.
AL：我很受宠若惊，但这不是我的动机。我想帮助人们。我花了很长时间才明白如何交易，让我惊讶的是，几乎没有很好的资源来帮助人们学习如何交易。如果你为高盛或摩根大通工作，他们会教你。商学院也会教你一些东西。但绝大多数其他人，除了自己摸索，他们没有其他途径来学习如何交易。
I thought, “Wow, I can do something useful.” It makes me feel like I’m doing something good, and I like helping people. I like doing good things.
我当时想：“哇，我能做点有用的事了。”这让我感觉自己在做一件好事，我喜欢帮助别人。我喜欢做有意义的事。
Keeping focus to succeed at trading
保持专注，才能在交易中取得成功
FELIPPE: Great. I actually felt that in my skin because I lost money for so many years before I found your first book. Really amazing what you do for traders, Al.
费利佩：太棒了。我真的感同身受，因为在读到你的第一本书之前，我亏损了很多年。阿尔，你为交易者所做的一切真的很了不起。
Second question: you’ve said that you decided to become a full-time trader just a few months before you became a father. I imagine your costs probably rose. Since you stayed a long period without making any money – 10 years, if I’m not mistaken – you probably were under a lot of pressure and anxiety. To make things worse, over this long period, you tried to learn and apply different approaches without success, and that brought a lot of frustration, I can imagine.
第二个问题：你曾说过，你决定成为全职交易员是在成为父亲前几个月。我想象你的开支可能增加了。由于你长时间没有赚到任何钱——如果我没记错的话，有10年——你可能承受了很大的压力和焦虑。更糟糕的是，在这漫长的时间里，你尝试学习和应用不同的方法，但都没有成功，这带来了很多挫败感，我能想象得到。
You had the option to get back to work as a doctor, which is way more stable, but decided to keep trying trading and developing your own style with no guarantees. What kept you focused and confident that you would succeed, and what do you have to say to traders that are facing similar challenging moments?
你本可以选择重新当医生，那份工作要稳定得多，但你却决定继续尝试交易，并发展自己的风格，尽管没有保障。是什么让你保持专注并相信自己会成功？你对那些正面临类似挑战时刻的交易者有什么话要说？
AL: I have a few things. Let me give some background information. I’m in the United States, and it’s easy to assume everybody in the United States is rich. I was not born rich . There were six of us, four kids and my parents. We lived in a small house. No shower. We had a bathtub. I did not get a shower until I was in high school.
AL：我有几点要说。让我先提供一些背景信息。我在美国，很容易假设美国每个人都很富有。我不是生来就富有的。我们家有六口人，四个孩子和我的父母。我们住在一间小房子里。没有淋浴。我们有一个浴缸。我直到上高中才有淋浴。
My father was born in 1904, and he stopped going to school when he was 8 years old and he worked in a factory all his life. I never had new clothes. We always bought our clothes at secondhand stores. So I grew up poor, and I hated being poor. I just decided I was not going to stay poor.
我父亲出生于1904年，他在8岁时就辍学了，然后在工厂里干了一辈子。我从来没有穿过新衣服。我们总是去二手店买衣服。所以我从小就很穷，我讨厌贫穷。我下定决心，我不会一直穷下去。
My mother – back then, in the 1950s and 1960s when I was young, doctors were held in very high esteem in our community. My mother, her dream was for her son – first of all, her dream was for her son to become a priest because back then, every Catholic family had to have a son or daughter become a priest or a nun. I was the oldest son, and it became clear that she did not think of me as priest material. Therefore, the second-best choice was to become a doctor. That was the second most honorable or prestigious thing that she could have for her son.
我妈妈——在我年轻时的1950年代和1960年代，医生在我们社区中备受尊敬。我妈妈的梦想是让她的儿子——首先，她的梦想是让她的儿子成为一名牧师，因为那时，每个天主教家庭都必须有一个儿子或女儿成为牧师或修女。我是长子，但很明显，她并不认为我适合当牧师。因此，第二好的选择是成为一名医生。这是她能为儿子争取到的第二份最体面或最受人尊敬的工作。
So she decided that she wanted me to become an eye surgeon. I don’t know why she picked eye surgeon, but that’s what she picked. So all my life, I grew up thinking “I’m going to become an eye surgeon because that’s the honorable thing to do. My parents want me to do that. That’s what I have to do.” So I went ahead and I did everything I could to become an eye surgeon.
所以她决定让我成为一名眼科医生。我不知道她为什么选择眼科医生，但她就是这么选择的。所以我从小就认为“我要成为一名眼科医生，因为这是光荣的事。我的父母希望我这样做。这是我必须做的事。” 所以我继续努力，做了我能做的一切来成为一名眼科医生。
Among the different medical specialties, eye surgery, ophthalmology, is one of the most difficult to get in, in part because you work relatively few hours as an ophthalmologist in private practice and you can make an incredible amount of money. So a lot of doctors in medical school want to get into eye surgery residencies. They’re hard to get in. I was fortunate and I got in.
在不同的医学专业中，眼科手术是其中最难进入的领域之一，部分原因是作为一名私人执业的眼科医生，你的工作时间相对较少，但能赚取巨额收入。因此，许多医学院的学生都希望进入眼科手术住院医师培训项目。这些项目很难进入。我很幸运，我被录取了。
But all of the time that I was in Chicago – Chicago was the home of Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, so commodity futures, bond futures, and the stock index futures market was there. All the time when I was in Chicago, I just kept feeling like, “I’m in the wrong place, and I should be in the business school or I should be in downtown Chicago, trading the pit. That’s what I really want to do. I don’t want to be cutting out eyeballs. I don’t want to be seeing a bunch of patients. I want to be a trader.”
但我在芝加哥的整个时间里——芝加哥是芝加哥期货交易所和芝加哥商品交易所的所在地，所以商品期货、债券期货和股票指数期货市场都在那里。我在芝加哥的整个时间里，我总是觉得，“我在错的地方，我应该在商学院，或者我应该在芝加哥市中心的交易坑里交易。这就是我真正想做的事。我不想切除眼球。我不想看一堆病人。我想成为一名交易员。”
I just so much wanted to do that, and I was afraid. I was afraid of disappointing my family, and also, here I was on a path that would make me have a very good lifestyle in the United States – I would make a lot of money as an eye surgeon – and I was afraid to give it up.
我真的很想这样做，但我很害怕。我害怕让家人失望，而且，我当时走在一条能让我在美国过上非常好的生活的道路上——作为眼科医生，我能赚很多钱——我害怕放弃这一切。
Anyway, I did it for a number of years. I was a young guy. I was very aggressive. I built up a very big practice. I was maybe 34 years old with 17 employees, which is really pretty remarkable. I also built a surgical center and got it approved by the United States government, Medicare. So I had a big operation going. I was making an incredible amount of money. I was making over a million dollars a year back in the ’80s. That’s take-home pay, and that is a lot of money.
总之，我做了好几年。我那时还年轻，非常积极进取。我建立了一个很大的诊所。我大概34岁，有17名员工，这真的很了不起。我还建立了一个手术中心，并获得了美国政府医疗保险的批准。所以我有一个很大的业务在运作。我赚了很多钱。在80年代，我每年赚超过一百万美元。这是净收入，这是一大笔钱。
Fortunately, I was able to save a lot of money. I decided that I really should not be doing this. I’ve got one life, and as much as I want to be honorable and do what my mother wants me to do, I have one life, and I want to do what I want to do. I felt like I did what she wanted me to do for long enough, and I decided, “I really want to trade. I’m going to start trading.” That’s what I started doing.
幸运的是，我存了很多钱。我决定我真的不能再这样做了。我只有一次生命，尽管我想成为一个正直的人，做我母亲希望我做的事，但我只有一次生命，我想做我想做的事。我觉得我已经按照她的意愿做了很长时间了，我决定：“我真的想交易。我要开始交易了。”这就是我开始做的事情。
I picked a funny month to begin. I started trading in October of 1987, and I traded aggressively, traded very big volume – much more volume than I should have for a beginner. On the day of the stock market crash in 1987, I had a very large short position. I put it on that morning. But I also had a very full surgery schedule, and I had to exit my position and go to work and do my eye surgery.
我选择了一个有趣的月份开始。我在1987年10月开始交易，并且交易非常积极，交易量很大——对于一个初学者来说，交易量远远超过我应该有的水平。在1987年股市崩盘的那天，我持有大量的空头头寸。我在那天早上建立了这个头寸。但我也有一个非常满的手术日程，我必须平仓去工作，做我的眼科手术。
As I was driving to work, the stock market was crashing. Nobody knew how much it was crashing. I liked listening to the stock market news reports, and nobody knew what the stock market was doing. Nobody knew what the price was, which was crazy. At the end of the day, they came up with a final price. The stock market was down about 25%. Had I held onto my position, I would have made $400,000 on that one day, and in today’s dollars that would be over a million dollars in a single day of trading.
当我开车去上班时，股市正在暴跌。没有人知道它跌了多少。我喜欢听股市新闻报道，但没人知道股市在做什么。没有人知道价格是多少，这太疯狂了。到了最后，他们才给出一个最终价格。股市下跌了约25%。如果我当时持仓不动，我那天就能赚40万美元，按今天的美元计算，那将是一天交易中超过100万美元的收益。
I decided, “Hmm, maybe I can do this,” and I decided to become a trader. But all my years trying to get into medical school, and then once in medical school, the routine that worked was you read books, you listen to people ahead of you, and you try to copy what they’re doing.
我想：“嗯，也许我能做到这点”，于是我决定成为一名交易员。但我在试图进入医学院的那些年里，以及在医学院里，行之有效的方法是：你读书籍，你听前辈的经验，你尝试模仿他们的做法。
You’re too young to know this, but back in the ’80s, the trading world was filled with dishonest people – liars, thieves, crooks. In the United States the government has cracked down on that, so now that’s much less a problem, but back then it was just filled with very, very dishonest people. I paid all kinds of money to hire tutors, to go to conferences. I read every book out there. I was very good at following the rules, just like as an eye surgeon, I was very good at following the rules and was a good eye surgeon.
你还太年轻，不知道这个情况，但在80年代，交易界充满了不诚实的人——骗子、小偷、恶棍。在美国，政府已经打击了这种现象，所以现在这已经不是一个大问题了，但那时，交易界充斥着非常非常不诚实的人。我花了很多钱请导师，参加会议。我读了所有能找到的书。我非常擅长遵循规则，就像我作为眼科医生一样，我非常擅长遵循规则，是一名优秀的眼科医生。
But I was losing money, and I kept losing money, and I didn’t understand how that could possibly be. Growing up, everybody I knew was honest, so I just assumed that everybody in the world was honest. I came to the inescapable conclusion that all of these people who were teaching people how to trade were liars. It was just all fraud. I decided that, well, obviously there are big companies out there who were making money, and why can’t I do it? I’ve been successful all my life, and I should be able to be successful at this.
但我一直在亏钱，我不明白为什么会这样。在我成长的过程中，我认识的所有人都是诚实的，所以我以为世界上所有人都是诚实的。我得出一个不可避免的结论：所有这些教人如何交易的人都是骗子。这全是欺诈。我决定，显然，外面有大公司在赚钱，为什么我不能做到？我一生都很成功，我应该能够在交易中取得成功。
So I decided to get rid of all the indicators on my charts and just look at charts, just look at the bars and try to look for patterns. I thought that trading was based upon rational human behavior and repeatable human behavior, and therefore there would be patterns, and if I could learn enough patterns, I should be able to trade. It took me years to come to that conclusion, about 10 years. As I said, I made a lot of money as an eye surgeon, and I could have retired and stayed retired for the rest of my life. I had a lot of money. So for me it was not a big financial problem quitting eye surgery and staying home to raise my kids.
所以我决定在图表上去掉所有指标，只看图表，只看K线，尝试寻找模式。我认为交易是基于理性的人类行为和可重复的人类行为，因此会有模式，如果我能学习足够的模式，我应该能够进行交易。我花了多年时间才得出这个结论，大约10年。正如我所说，我作为眼科医生赚了很多钱，我本可以退休，并一直退休到余生。我有很多钱。所以对我来说，放弃眼科手术，留在家里抚养孩子，并不是一个大的经济问题。
Anyway, I decided to build it from scratch, ignore what everyone else has said, and try to understand it for myself and try to put it into words. I’m very good at classifying things and trying to put things into words. At least, I think I am. At least, in my mind I can eventually solve problems and come to peace. That’s how I approach the market. I try to look at patterns, understand why they were forming, and then understand what is the likelihood that they will lead to the market going up or down.
总之，我决定从头开始构建它，忽略别人说了什么，尝试自己理解它，并尝试用语言表达出来。我擅长分类事物，并尝试用语言表达事物。至少，我认为我是这样的。至少在我的脑海里，我最终能解决问题，并找到平静。这就是我对待市场的方式。我尝试观察形态，理解它们形成的原因，然后理解它们导致市场上涨或下跌的可能性有多大。
I just spent years and years and years doing that. For the past more than 30 years, I’ve been looking at charts real-time, tick by tick by tick. I can’t imagine that there’s another person on the planet who has looked at charts as much as I have looked at charts. I save charts every day. I’ve been doing that for 30 years, so I have a big collection of charts, and I have them classified into different patterns, and now I’m very good at seeing patterns unfold and anticipating what patterns will unfold.
我花了很多年、很多年、很多年时间在做这件事。在过去的30多年里，我一直在实时观察图表，逐笔逐笔地分析。我无法想象在这个星球上还有谁比我看过的图表更多。我每天都会保存图表。我已经做了30年了，所以我有大量的图表收藏，我把它们分类成不同的形态，现在我非常擅长观察形态的展开，并预测哪些形态会展开。
I want to say one other thing about my career change. In 1988, I had a daughter, and then 15 months later I had identical twin daughters. So I had three daughters until the age of 15 months, and that was a big, big focus for me. So yes, I was trading in 1988, 1989, but I was also trying to raise daughters, and I also thought, “Gosh, I am so fortunate to have three really healthy young girls who appear to be very, very smart. I don’t want to go to my office in downtown Los Angeles every day. I want to be home with my kids, and I want to trade.”
我想再说一件事，关于我的职业转变。1988年，我生了一个女儿，15个月后，我又生了一对双胞胎女儿。所以在15个月大的时候，我就有了三个女儿，这对我来说是一个很大的关注点。所以，是的，我在1988年、1989年都在交易，但我也在尝试抚养女儿，我还想：“天哪，我很幸运能有三个非常健康、看起来非常聪明的小女孩。我不想每天去洛杉矶市中心的办公室。我想待在家里，和孩子们在一起，我想交易。”
So for me, it was a big magnet at home, and I decided that I was just going to sell my practice and stay at home, raise my kids and trade. For the first few years, it was more raising kids than it was trading, but as time went on, it became more and more trading, and I became very good at figuring things out. After about 10 years, I finally felt like I understood enough and I had enough confidence – one of the things that’s difficult for a trader starting out is confidence. “Do I trust what I’m doing? Do I believe that the patterns will be profitable?” It takes years to get the confidence, trust the math.
所以对我来说，家里是一个巨大的吸引力，我决定卖掉我的诊所，留在家里，抚养孩子，进行交易。在最初的几年里，我更多的是抚养孩子，而不是交易，但随着时间的推移，交易越来越多，我也越来越擅长解决问题。大约10年后，我终于觉得自己理解得足够多了，也足够自信了——对于刚开始交易的交易者来说，信心是一个难题。“我信任我所做的事情吗？我相信这些形态会带来盈利吗？”建立信心和信任数学需要数年的时间。
One of the problems with trading is everybody wants 100%, right? They want to take a trade and they want 100% certainty that they will make money, and that’s not how trading is. Trading, you’re in a gray fog. Nothing is ever as clear as you want.
交易的一个问题是，每个人都想要100%的确定性，对吧？他们希望进行一笔交易，并希望100%确定他们会赚钱，但交易并不是这样的。交易时，你身处灰色的迷雾中。没有什么事情像你希望的那样清晰。
Every trade that you take, you have to assume that there’s an institution taking the opposite side of your trade. There’s also an institution taking your side of the trade, but there are always two institutions trading. Therefore, you’ve got to be thinking that at every given instant, the math is pretty close for the buyers and the sellers, and that’s true for all markets. You have to assume that there’s probably a way to make money buying and probably a way to make money selling at every instant, all day long, if you know how to structure the trade and if you know how to manage the trade.
你每做一笔交易，都必须假设有一家机构在做与你相反的交易。同时，也有一家机构在做与你相同的交易，但总是有两家机构在交易。因此，你必须认为在任何给定的瞬间，买方和卖方的数学计算都非常接近，这在所有市场都是如此。你必须假设，如果你知道如何构建交易，如果你知道如何管理交易，那么在任何时候，无论是买入还是卖出，都有可能赚钱，而且这种可能性贯穿全天。
Over the course of years, I developed a set of rules that I use for trading, and it works. I’m sorry for the long answer to your question.
经过多年的时间，我制定了一套用于交易的规则，并且这些规则有效。很抱歉对你的问题给出这么长的回答。
Does ‘Mr Average’ have any chance in market?
“普通先生”在市场中有任何机会吗？
FELIPPE: No, it was great. I’m almost applauding here. In fact, it’s very difficult for people to think in probabilities. We want to be sure before we put a trade. It’s very hard to think that it’s real. The chance to lose money on any trade is real, so it’s hard for most people. I think you are the world champion in thinking about patterns, Al. I really do.
FELIPPE：不，这太棒了。我差点在这里鼓掌。事实上，人们很难用概率来思考。我们在下单之前希望确定。很难相信这是真实的。任何交易都有亏损的可能，这是真实的，所以对大多数人来说很难。我认为你是思考模式的世界冠军，阿尔。我真的这么认为。
Third question: you are a successful trader, a surgeon, a bestselling author, and a fast thinker, so I think we can safely say you have an above-average intelligence. That’s also the case for many good institutional traders, which we trade against every day. Do you think an average guy has any chance in the market? If a guy is not a fast thinker and he is aware of that, how do you think he can improve his odds?
第三个问题：你是一位成功的交易者、外科医生、畅销书作家，而且思维敏捷，所以我们可以安全地说你拥有超乎寻常的智力。这对于我们每天交易的许多优秀机构交易员来说也是如此。你认为一个普通人是否在市场中有任何机会？如果一个人的思维不够敏捷，并且他意识到这一点，你认为他如何能提高自己的胜算？
AL: I want to say two things. First I want to brag. I have three daughters. They graduated from the University of California at Berkeley, Yale University, Harvard University, Stanford University, they got into Princeton, Columbia, Penn – in the United States, these are the absolute best schools in the country.
AL：我想说两件事。首先我想炫耀一下。我有三个女儿。她们毕业于加州大学伯克利分校、耶鲁大学、哈佛大学、斯坦福大学，还被普林斯顿大学、哥伦比亚大学、宾夕法尼亚大学录取——在美国，这些都是全国最顶尖的学校。
FELIPPE: Wow.
FELIPPE：哇。
AL: You can assume that they must have a very smart mother.
AL：你可以假设她们一定有一个非常聪明的母亲。
FELIPPE: [laughs] Well, I’m sure they do. I believe you. I believe all of them, the so-called Ivy League, all of these –
FELIPPE：[笑] 我相信他们确实如此。我相信你。我相信他们所有人，所谓的常春藤联盟，所有这些——
AL: Ivy Leagues, yeah. They’re the best schools in the country. Best schools in the world. Let me go back to your question.
AL：常春藤盟校，没错。它们是国内最好的学校，也是世界最好的学校。让我回到你的问题上来。
FELIPPE: Okay.
费利佩：好的。
AL: Are you familar with Warren Buffett?
AL：你熟悉沃伦·巴菲特吗？
FELIPPE: Of course, yes.
FELIPPE：当然，是的。
AL: Warren Buffett is probably the world’s greatest, most highly respected trader. He’s now I think 89 years old. What most people don’t know is he has a partner, Charlie Munger. Have you heard of Charlie Munger?
AL：沃伦·巴菲特可能是全球最伟大、最受尊敬的交易者。他现在我想有89岁了。大多数人不知道的是，他有一个合作伙伴，查理·芒格。你听说过查理·芒格吗？
FELIPPE: I heard, but I don’t know much about him.
FELIPPE：我听说过他，但对他不太了解。
AL: I know two things about him. One is he was a lawyer, and he started a very prestigious law firm. It’s a very high-end law firm. All of his lawyers went to Harvard, Stanford, and Yale, the three best law schools in the county. One of my daughters is one of his lawyers. So I have that connection to Charlie Munger.
AL：我知道关于他的两件事。一是他是律师，他创立了一家非常有声望的律师事务所。这是一家高端律师事务所。他的所有律师都毕业于哈佛、斯坦福和耶鲁，这是全国最好的三所法学院。我的一个女儿就是他的律师之一。所以我和查理·芒格有这种联系。
And then Charlie Munger also says something – he occasionally says what I’m about to tell you, and it directly answers your question. Charlie Munger says he would rather have someone with an IQ of 130 who thinks his IQ is 110 than someone with an IQ of 150 who thinks his IQ is 170. He wants people who can accept being wrong. For trading, it’s really important to accept being wrong.
然后查理·芒格也说过一些话——他偶尔会说我接下来要告诉你的话，这直接回答了你的问题。查理·芒格说，他宁愿要一个智商130但认为自己智商110的人，也不愿要一个智商150但认为自己智商170的人。他希望人们能够接受自己犯错。对于交易来说，接受自己犯错是非常重要的。
As far as being a fast thinker goes, you and I are both competing against high frequency trading firms, and most of the buying that takes place every day is being traded by high frequency trading firms. So how can I possibly think fast enough to make a living if I’m competing against computers that are thinking infinitely faster? Theoretically, those computers are much smarter than I am and they can make decisions and place trades much faster than I can – yet how can I make money?
至于快速思考的能力，你和我都在与高频交易公司竞争，每天的大部分买入交易都是由高频交易公司完成的。那么，如果我在与思考速度无限快的计算机竞争，我如何才能思考得足够快以谋生呢？从理论上讲，这些计算机比我更聪明，它们可以比我更快地做出决策和下单——但我如何才能赚钱呢？
The reason is because there are other ways to make money than being super fast and super smart. What you have to do is find a timeframe where you have time to think about things and come up with logical conclusions, and you don’t have to have exceptional intelligence to do that. I think a person with average intelligence can do that.
原因在于，除了超级快速和超级聪明之外，还有其他赚钱的方法。你需要做的就是找到一个时间框架，在这个框架内你有时间思考问题并得出逻辑结论，而你不需要具备超凡的智力来做到这一点。我认为一个智力普通的人也能做到这一点。
Also, just trading stocks. Apple, they make good products. Microsoft makes good products. So you know that those stocks are going to go up over time. There are lots of company like that, and a very simple way to look at it is, “Apple is going to go higher; I’m going to wait to buy Apple when it’s on sale. I’ll wait till it drops 10% or 20% and then buy Apple.” You don’t have to be a genius to know that. That is a very profitable strategy.
此外，只交易股票。苹果公司生产优质产品，微软也生产优质产品。所以你知道这些股票会随着时间的推移而上涨。有很多这样的公司，一个非常简单的方法就是：“苹果会涨得更高；我会等到苹果打折时再买入。我会等到它下跌10%或20%时再买入苹果。”你不需要是天才才能知道这一点。这是一个非常盈利的策略。
If somebody simply tries to buy Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Pepsi-Cola, Johnson & Johnson – there are a whole bunch of companies that are really good companies, and you don’t have to be a genius to know that they’re in bull trends and they’re going to be in bull trends for the next 10 years, even if they lose 50% at some point during those 10 years. You don’t have to be a genius to know that if you buy Apple when it’s down 20%, or Coca-Cola when it’s down 20%, and you just hold onto it, you’re going to make money.
如果有人只是尝试买入苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、可口可乐、百事可乐、强生——有很多公司都是非常好的公司，你不需要是天才才能知道它们处于多头趋势，并且未来10年内都会处于多头趋势，即使它们在某个时候损失了50%。你不需要是天才才能知道，如果你在苹果下跌20%时买入，或者在可口可乐下跌20%时买入，然后持有它，你就会赚钱。
So anybody can make money as a trader if they have a long enough timeframe. If you’re willing to buy Apple or Coca-Cola and hold it for 5 or 10 years, you are going to make money. The odds are astronomically good that you’re going to make money. Therefore, you’re a trader and you’re making a successful trade, and you don’t have to be a genius to do that.
因此，只要有足够长的时间框架，任何人都可以作为交易者赚钱。如果你愿意买入苹果或可口可乐并持有5到10年，你就会赚钱。你赚钱的概率非常高。因此，你是一名交易者，你正在进行成功的交易，而你不需要是天才才能做到这一点。
What you’re talking about, though, is a trader trading on a much shorter timeframe, without that fundamental information. With Apple, there’s fundamental information. You know that they’re going to be profitable. As a short-term trader, you’re not trading on fundamentals. You’re trading on technicals. You’re looking for short patterns.
但你说的这种情况，是指一个交易者在更短的时间框架内交易，而没有这些基本面信息。以苹果公司为例，你有基本面信息，你知道他们会盈利。作为短期交易者，你不是在交易基本面，而是在交易技术面。你在寻找短期形态。
But the same rule applies. If you see a chart, let’s say a daily chart, and a [unclear 00:20:33], anything, and the chart is going up – there’s pullbacks, 3%, 5%, 10% pullbacks, but it’s going up – all you have to do is look at it and say, “If it falls 5% or 10%, if I buy it and hold onto it, I’m going to make money.” So on a daily chart, anybody can make money without being a genius. And the same is true on an hourly chart, and if you think faster, you can do it on a 5-minute chart or a 1-minute chart. If you’re a high frequency trading firm, a computer, you can do it on a tick chart based upon the ticks of the past 5 seconds or the ticks of the past 2 seconds.
但同样的规则适用。如果你看一张图表，比如日线图，以及任何其他图表，只要图表在上升——即使有3%、5%、10%的回撤，但整体趋势是上升的——你只需要看一眼，然后说：“如果它下跌5%或10%，我买入并持有，我就能赚钱。”所以，在日线图上，任何人都可以赚钱，而不需要成为天才。小时图也同样如此，如果你反应更快，可以在5分钟图或1分钟图上操作。如果你是高频交易公司或计算机，可以基于过去5秒或2秒的tick数据在tick图表上操作。
So you don’t have to have a very big IQ to trade profitably. Anybody can do it; they just have to be patient and find a timeframe where they can comfortably make decisions. For some people, it’s a 5-minute chart; other people, it’s a day chart or an hourly chart. For me, I can trade on a 1-minute chart or a 15-second chart, but it’s stressful and it’s really unpleasant, so that’s why I don’t do it.
所以，你不需要很高的智商才能盈利交易。任何人都可以做到，他们只需要耐心，并找到一个他们可以舒适地做出决策的时间框架。对有些人来说，是5分钟图；对另一些人来说，是日线图或小时图。对我来说，我可以在1分钟图或15秒图上交易，但这很紧张，也很不愉快，所以我不这样做。
I trade on a 5-minute chart. I’m comfortable on that timeframe. I can make a very good living on that timeframe, and I don’t worry that if I traded a 1-minute chart that might have 400 bars during the day in the Emini and 50 or 60 or 100 trades – I don’t care. I’m in a timeframe where I’m comfortable and I can consistently make money trading on my timeframe.
我在5分钟图上交易。我在这个时间框架内感觉舒适。我可以在这个时间框架内过上很好的生活，我不担心如果我在1分钟图上交易，迷你标普一天可能有400根K线，可能有50、60或100笔交易——我不在乎。我在一个我感觉舒适的时间框架内，我可以持续在这个时间框架内赚钱。
That’s true for a 60-minute chart or an hourly chart, an hourly chart or a daily chart. There are timeframes where anyone can make money if they just follow some simple rules and look for repeating patterns.
这对于60分钟图、小时图或日线图都是如此。只要遵循一些简单的规则，寻找重复的形态，任何人都可以在某些时间框架内赚钱。
FELIPPE: That’s very interesting, Al. It’s a matter of finding the right timeframe, the right strategy, right? Very interesting.
FELIPPE：这非常有趣，Al。关键是找到合适的时间框架和策略，对吧？非常有趣。
AL: Yeah.
AL: 对。
Advice on being patient
关于耐心的建议
FELIPPE: Fourth question. You stress that patience is one of the most important personality traits for a trader, especially when he is starting out. But patience is a rare quality to find in a person nowadays, especially amongst youngsters. With your experience, what would be your advice for a novice trader to convince him to not jump stages?
FELIPPE：第四个问题。你强调耐心是交易者最重要的性格特质之一，尤其是在刚开始的时候。但耐心是当今社会中罕见的品质，尤其是在年轻人中。基于你的经验，你对新手交易者有什么建议，以说服他不要跳过阶段？
AL: I have a couple thoughts about that. Do you have Walmart stores in Brazil?
AL：我对此有几点想法。巴西有沃尔玛商店吗？
FELIPPE: We do, yeah.
FELIPPE：有，是的。
AL: We have them all over the place up here. Probably within three or four miles, there are probably five Walmart stores. I like shopping at Walmart. It’s interesting; last year, one of my buddies was shopping at Walmart and he ran into me and he said, “Al? You shop at Walmart? I thought guys like you shop at all the expensive stores.” I said, “Nah, I grew up poor. I love Walmart.” When I was a kid, I used to go to stores like that and I would just dream of buying anything. I couldn’t buy anything, and I used to just dream of buying anything. Now I can go to Walmart and I feel like I can buy anything and I’m happy. So for me, I like going to Walmart. I go to Walmart every week.
AL：我们这里到处都有沃尔玛。可能在方圆三四英里内，就有五家沃尔玛商店。我喜欢在沃尔玛购物。有趣的是，去年我的一个朋友在沃尔玛购物时遇到了我，他说：“Al？你在沃尔玛购物？我以为像你这样的人都去高档商店购物。”我说：“不，我从小就穷，我喜欢沃尔玛。”小时候，我常去这样的商店，只是梦想着能买任何东西。我买不起任何东西，只能梦想着能买任何东西。现在我可以去沃尔玛，感觉自己可以买任何东西，我很开心。所以，我喜欢去沃尔玛，每周都去。
What I say in my chatroom is some traders, they’ll put on a trade and they’ve lost five of the past six or seven trades. They’re so desperate a win that they’ll put on a trade and it just goes a few ticks in their direction and they’ll take the trade. Let’s just use dollars as an example.
我在聊天室里说过，有些交易者，他们开仓后，之前六七笔交易中有五笔都亏损了。他们急于赢一笔，所以只要行情朝他们有利方向移动几点，他们就会平仓。我们用美元举例。
FELIPPE: No problem.
FELIPPE：没问题。
AL: Let’s say their stop is $10 away and they have a $2 profit. They’re so desperate for a win that they’ll wait for the perfect setup, they’ll see the setup, they’ll take the trade, and they’ll just get out with $2, risking $10. That is a losing strategy. You cannot have a risk that much greater than your reward and make money unless you’re going to win 90% of the time, and if you’re starting out, you’re not going to do that.
AL：假设他们的止损距离是10美元，而他们获利2美元。他们急于赢一笔，所以会等待完美的入场信号，看到信号后开仓，然后只获利2美元就平仓，而风险却是10美元。这是一个亏损策略。除非你能赢90%的交易，否则你不能让风险远大于回报并赚钱，而如果你刚开始交易，你做不到这一点。
So one of the rules that I recommend traders starting out is find a credible setup, find out where your stop has to be – if your stop has to be $5 below, always go for a reward that is at least twice your stop. So if your stop is $5, go for a profit that is $10. If you find yourself exiting with $2, what you do is you take the trade – let’s say it’s a buy. You put your stop in. Let’s say it’s $5 below. You place a limit order $10 above, so your reward is $10. Your risk is $5. You tell the broker, “Set it up as an OCO order,” so if one gets filled, the other order gets cancelled.
所以，我建议新手交易者遵循的一条规则是：找到一个可信的入场信号，确定你的止损位置——如果你的止损需要设在下方5美元，那么始终追求至少是止损两倍的回报。所以，如果你的止损是5美元，就追求10美元的获利。如果你发现自己只获利2美元就平仓，那么你应该这样做：假设你开多单，设置止损，比如在下方5美元。然后在上方10美元处设置限价单，这样你的回报就是10美元，风险是5美元。你告诉经纪人：“设置一个OCO订单”，这样如果一个订单成交，另一个订单就会被取消。
Then you go to Walmart . If you’re trading a 5-minute chart, you put the trade on and you go to Walmart. You come back in an hour or two, and what you’ll find out is that 40% of the time, you’ll make $10. Maybe 20%, 30% of the time, your $5 stop will be hit. And then some of the time, you’ll either make a little bit or lose a little bit. The market will be around where you entered when you get back from Walmart. That is a profitable trading strategy.
然后你去沃尔玛。如果你交易的是5分钟图，开仓后就去沃尔玛。一两个小时后回来，你会发现，40%的时间里，你会获利10美元。可能有20%、30%的时间，你的5美元止损会被触及。然后有时候，你会略有获利或略有亏损。当你从沃尔玛回来时，市场价格会接近你入场时的价格。这是一个盈利的交易策略。
If you’re exiting too quickly, you should think about the Walmart trade. Find your setup, place your stop, place a profit-taking order twice the distance of your stop, and then go to Walmart.
如果你出场得太快，就该想想沃尔玛交易法。找到你的入场条件，设置止损，设置一个距离止损两倍的获利单，然后去沃尔玛。
FELIPPE: Can I say something about it?
费利佩：我能说点关于这个的看法吗？
AL: Yeah.
AL: 对。
FELIPPE: I think it’s actually a very interesting strategy, the Walmart thing, because if you think about this anxiety thing, the lack of patience people have nowadays, the regular session here has – for the minis here, 9 hours. I think it’s 8 hours, the mini S&P, if I’m not mistaken. So it’s a lot of hours every day. If a person is anxious, to trade two or three times only along 9 hours is really painful, right?
费利佩：我觉得“沃尔玛交易法”其实是个很有趣的策略，因为如果你考虑到焦虑的问题，以及人们现在缺乏耐心，这里常规交易时段对于迷你合约来说有9个小时。我记得迷你标普是8个小时，如果我没记错的话。所以每天都有很多小时。如果一个人很焦虑，在9个小时内只交易两三次是非常痛苦的，对吧？
AL: Right.
阿尔：对。
FELIPPE: It’s very difficult for a beginner to wait – before the session starts, it’s easy for the beginner to think, “Yeah, I’m going to concentrate. I’m only going to trade the best trades, two or three during the day.” But during 9 hours, especially if he loses in the first trade, for instance, it’s very difficult. So going to Walmart is very good advice. I’ve heard before you saying that, but this thought just occurred right now. All right, are you going to keep answering this question, or we’ll jump to the next one?
费利佩：对于新手来说，等待是非常困难的——在交易开始前，新手很容易想：“是的，我要集中注意力。我只会做最好的交易，一天两三次。”但9个小时内，尤其是如果他在第一次交易中就亏损了，那就非常困难。所以去沃尔玛是个很好的建议。我以前听过你说过这话，但这个想法刚刚才浮现出来。好了，你是继续回答这个问题，还是跳到下一个问题？
AL: Let’s move to the next one. I can come back to it.
阿尔：我们继续下一个问题。我可以再回到这个问题上来。
What problem habits to unlearn?
需要摒弃哪些不良习惯？
FELIPPE: Sorry if I interrupted your thinking. Five: what habits or behaviors do you remember having to unlearn to become consistently profitable? How long did it take to unhook from bad habits and create the new habits needed? What habits do you remember being a problem for you as a novice trader?
费利佩：抱歉，如果我打断了你的思路。第五个问题：你记得需要摒弃哪些习惯或行为才能实现持续盈利？摆脱坏习惯并养成新习惯需要多长时间？你还记得哪些习惯在你刚开始交易时给你造成了问题？
AL: One of the things is – the brain works in a really interesting way. If something is very, very painful to you, if you’re going through a very, very painful experience, over time the feeling of pain is gone, but the memory of the event is still there. I’m sure all of us have had very, very painful things happen to us when we were kids. We lose a soccer game or whatever. It was very painful at the time, and 10 years later you remember that it was very hurtful, but you don’t feel the pain anymore.
AL：有一点是这样的——大脑的工作方式非常有趣。如果某件事对你来说非常痛苦，如果你经历了非常痛苦的经历，随着时间的推移，痛苦的感觉会消失，但事件的记忆仍然存在。我相信我们所有人小时候都经历过非常痛苦的事情。我们输掉了一场足球比赛，或者其他什么事情。那时非常痛苦，但10年后你记得那很伤人，但你不再感到痛苦。
I’m at that point as a trader. I know all kinds of things that I did that were stupid. I did a lot of really stupid things. At the time, the pain was unbelievable. It was just horrible. But now I look back and I cannot recapture the pain. So in a way, the people who are on the other side who haven’t gone through it yet, they have the pain and they’re desperate, “Gosh, how do I get rid of this pain?”, and I’m over there no longer having the pain, saying, I don’t know. Somehow I got from there to here, and I don’t know how it happened. It’s kind of like I lost my hair. I don’t know when that happened. But somewhere along the line it just happened.
我作为交易者正处于这个阶段。我知道我做过很多愚蠢的事情。我做了很多非常愚蠢的事情。当时，痛苦是难以置信的，简直是可怕的。但现在我回过头来看，我无法重温那种痛苦。所以从某种意义上说，那些还没有经历过这一切的人，他们正经历着痛苦，他们绝望地想，“天哪，我该如何摆脱这种痛苦？”而我已经不再感到痛苦，我说，我不知道。我不知道我是如何从那里到达这里的，也不知道它是如何发生的。这有点像我掉了头发。我不知道那是什么时候发生的。但不知在什么时候，它就发生了。
I think most traders discover everything possible that they could ever do wrong, and they try it. When you’re starting out, you’re trying everything, and along the way you discover that you do every stupid thing that you should not be doing as a trader, and you do it many, many times before you finally conclude that it’s stupid and you’ve got to stop doing it.
我认为大多数交易者都会发现他们可能犯下的所有错误，并尝试去做。当你刚开始时，你会尝试一切，并在过程中发现你做了作为交易者不应该做的所有愚蠢事情，而且你会反复做这些事情很多次，直到你最终得出结论，这很愚蠢，你必须停止这样做。
One of the things is you keep doing the same thing over and over again, hoping that it’ll finally become successful, and that works sometimes, in some things. If you’re trying to knock a fence over to replace it and you keep pushing on it, eventually the fence falls over and then you can put the new fence up. Well, with trading, that’s not the way it works. If you keep doing something over and over and over again, brute force is not going to work. You have to back off and try something else.
有一点是，你不断地重复做同一件事，希望它最终会成功，在某些情况下，这有时是有效的。如果你试图推倒一扇栅栏以便更换它，并且你不断地推它，最终栅栏会倒下，然后你可以安装新的栅栏。然而，在交易中，情况并非如此。如果你不断地重复做同一件事，蛮力是不会起作用的。你必须后退并尝试其他方法。
One of the things is a lot of logical things in life that work for us in society do not work as a trader. If you’re walking on the right side of the sidewalk and everybody is going the same direction, it’s easy to go in that direction. But as a trader, if the market is going up and up and up and up and you finally decide to buy, but because everyone has been buying, the market is going up, that’s usually a mistake. A lot of times you have to be thinking about doing the exact opposite of what seems logical. That is very hard to do.
有一点是，生活中许多对我们社会有用的逻辑事物在交易中并不适用。如果你在人行道的右侧行走，每个人都朝着同一个方向走，那么朝那个方向走就很容易。但作为交易者，如果市场不断上涨，你最终决定买入，但正是因为每个人都在买入，市场才会上涨，这通常是一个错误。很多时候，你必须考虑做与看似合理的事情完全相反的事情。这很难做到。
Some of the best trades are the most difficult because you’re doing the opposite of what seems logical and rational. Also, some of the very easiest things to do are usually the worst. For example, today I took a short in the Emini, and I had a profit order to get out with a limit order. The market went right down to my price, did not go through my price, and yet it filled me. So what does that tell you?
有些最好的交易也是最难的，因为你在做与看似合乎逻辑和理性的事情相反的操作。而且，一些最容易做的事情通常是最糟糕的。例如，今天我在迷你标普（ES）上做空，我挂了一张限价获利的离场单。市场直接跌到我的价位，没有穿过我的价位，但我的单子却成交了。所以这说明什么？
Let me answer. Okay, I’m buying back my short for a profit. I always assume that the other side of my trade is an institution, so if I’m buying, that institution is selling. Why would that institution sell as the market is going down and allow me to get out without the market having to fall through my limit order? It’s because that institution is very confident that the market is going lower. I talked about this in the room. I said, oh, the market fell to my limit order. Normally it has to go below my limit order for me to get out, and here it just touched my limit order and bounced.
让我来回答。好吧，我正在平掉我的空头头寸，获利了结。我总是假设我的交易对手方是机构，所以如果我在买入，那就是机构在卖出。为什么机构会在市场下跌时卖出，允许我在市场不必跌破我的限价单的情况下离场？这是因为该机构非常确信市场会继续下跌。我在交易室里提到过这个问题。我说，哦，市场跌到了我的限价单。通常情况下，市场必须跌破我的限价单我才能离场，而这里只是触及了我的限价单就反弹了。
FELIPPE: By the tick.
FELIPPE：逐刻观察。
AL: Exactly to the tick. I said in the chatroom that the market is probably going lower because some institution sold – I bought, so they sold. They sold on the low tick, presumably because the market is going lower. So usually if I get filled exactly on the low tick and the market starts to turn up, it’s going to go lower – and it did. It went lower and kept going lower for about an hour or so.
AL：精确到每个跳动点。我在聊天室里说过，市场可能会下跌，因为某个机构卖出了——我买入了，所以他们卖出了。他们是在最低点卖出的，可能是因为市场会继续下跌。所以通常情况下，如果我正好在最低点成交，而市场开始反弹，那么它就会继续下跌——事实确实如此。它下跌了，并且持续下跌了大约一个小时左右。
There’s a saying that I use. It’s a fairly common Wall Street saying: good fill, bad trade. If I get a fill and it seems really good, it’s usually a bad trade. Usually if I’m getting a good fill, it’s because it’s not a good fill. I could get a much better fill if I held on.
我常说一句话，这是华尔街很常见的一句话：好成交，坏交易。如果我成交了，感觉成交价很好，那通常意味着这是一笔坏交易。通常情况下，如果我成交价很好，那是因为这其实不是一个好成交价。如果我能坚持住，我本可以得到一个更好的成交价。
When did your “I don’t care” position sizing appear?
你那种“无所谓”的仓位管理方式是什么时候出现的？
FELIPPE: Very interesting, Al. Never thought about it that way. Sixth question: when you approached trading psychology, when and how did you come up with your “I don’t care” position sizing rule to help manage your emotions and trade with more success? What was the moment that happened?
FELIPPE：非常有趣，Al。我从来没有这样想过。第六个问题：当你开始研究交易心理时，你是什么时候以及如何想出“我不在乎”的仓位管理规则，来帮助控制情绪并更成功地交易的？那是什么时候发生的？
AL: I think it’s really important not to care because you’re trading against a lot of very smart people. You’re trading against machines, and they’re purely logical. They’re purely logical, and all they’re doing is analyzing price action and they’re making decisions based upon the analysis of price action. So if I’m adding another variable, like “I’m afraid, I’m afraid” or “I need to make money,” if I’m adding some other variable, I’m looking at something that they are not looking at. I’m partially being logical and partially distracted because I’m considering other things that computers are not considering.
AL：我认为不去在意这些事情非常重要，因为你是在与许多非常聪明的人对抗交易。你是在与机器对抗交易，而它们是纯粹理性的。它们是纯粹理性的，它们所做的就是分析价格行为，并根据价格行为的分析做出决策。所以，如果我再添加一个变量，比如“我害怕，我害怕”或“我需要赚钱”，如果我再添加其他变量，我就是在关注一些它们没有关注的东西。我部分是理性的，部分是分心的，因为我在考虑计算机没有考虑的其他事情。
So I had to figure out some way to stay logical, and the easiest way to do it – well, the easiest way is to paper trade so there’s not much emotion at all. But you can’t make a living paper trading. You have to make a living by trading more money. The way to do it, I think, is to get rid of the emotion, and that means you have to trade a small enough position so you don’t care if you lose. You can just focus on doing the right thing, following your rules and managing your trade properly. That’s how I arrived at the “I do not care” size. You have to trade at that size.
所以我必须想办法保持理性，最简单的办法——好吧，最简单的是模拟交易，这样几乎没什么情绪。但模拟交易不能让你谋生，你必须靠交易更多资金来谋生。我认为，要做到这一点，就得摆脱情绪，那意味着你的仓位必须足够小，小到亏了也无所谓。这样你就能专注于做正确的事，遵守规则，妥善管理交易。这就是我得出“我不在乎”仓位规模的原因。你必须用那个规模去交易。
As time goes on – well, let me say one other thing. One of the nice things about the “I do not care” size is you’re never going to lose much money. But the flipside of that is you’re never going to make a lot of money either. So the trick is to do it to build up the experience of doing the right thing, and then slowly increasing your size so that you are making enough money, and you’re still maintaining the “I do not care” size. I have enough experience trading, I have enough confidence in what I’m doing, I can increase my position size and I can start to make money that’s truly worthwhile.
随着时间的推移——让我再说一件事。“我不在乎”的仓位大小的一个好处是，你永远不会损失太多钱。但它的缺点是，你也永远不会赚很多钱。所以诀窍是，通过这样做来积累做正确事情的经验，然后慢慢增加仓位规模，这样你就能赚到足够的钱，同时仍然保持“我不在乎”的仓位规模。我有足够的交易经验，对我所做的事情有足够的信心，我可以增加我的仓位规模，并开始赚取真正有价值的钱。
FELIPPE: This is simple advice, but it’s one of the best advices, in my opinion, that you give to traders, ever – and this is not a big technique. This is something simple. It’s in the reach of every trader. But still, lots of beginners refuse to do that and they keep blowing their accounts.
费利佩：这是一个简单的建议，但我认为这是你给交易者提供的最佳建议之一——这不是什么高深的技术。这是一件简单的事情，是每个交易者都能做到的。但即便如此，许多初学者仍然拒绝这样做，他们不断地亏损自己的账户。
AL: It’s a big, big mistake. People starting out, especially if they were successful in business and they have a lot of money, they think that “I don’t have to trade one contract. I can trade 10 contracts or 20 contracts, and I have enough cushion so I can be wrong a lot and still have a lot of money left over.” That’s a big, big mistake. Starting out, traders should trade the smallest possible position.
阿尔：这是一个巨大的错误。刚开始交易的人，尤其是那些在商业上取得成功并拥有大量资金的人，他们认为“我不需要交易一份合约，我可以交易10份或20份合约，我有足够的缓冲，所以我可以犯很多错误，仍然有很多钱剩下。” 这是一个巨大的错误。刚开始交易时，交易者应该交易尽可能小的仓位。
In the United States now, they have a Micro Emini contract. An Emini contract is $12.50 a tick, and the Micro Emini is one-tenth that size. It’s like Forex positions. You can trade very small Forex positions. Yes, you’re not going to get rich, but you are going to get practice, and you can develop confidence in your trading style with that practice, and that would allow you eventually to increase your position size.
现在美国有微型迷你标普合约。一个迷你标普合约的波动价值是12.50美元，而微型迷你标普合约是这个规模的十分之一。这就像外汇仓位一样。你可以交易非常小的外汇仓位。是的，你不会变得富有，但你会得到练习，通过这种练习，你可以建立对自己交易风格的信心，这将最终允许你增加仓位规模。
FELIPPE: How is the volume of this Micro contract?
费利佩：这个微型合约的成交量如何？
AL: The Micro Emini?
阿尔：微型迷你标普？
FELIPPE: Yeah. It was launched last May, if I’m not mistaken. Is it tradeable nowadays?
费利佩：是的。如果我没记错的话，它是在去年五月推出的。现在可以交易吗？
AL: Oh, it’s totally tradeable. If you think about it, it has to be totally arbitrage with the full size Emini, right?
阿尔：哦，它完全可以交易。如果你仔细想想，它必须与全尺寸的迷你标普完全套利，对吧？
FELIPPE: Yeah, of course. And it’s computers.
FELIPPE: 是的，当然。而且是电脑。
AL: Yeah. If it gets more than a tick out of sync, the computers are going to buy one, sell the other, and bring them back together again.
AL：对。如果价格偏离超过一个跳动，计算机就会买入一个品种，卖出另一个品种，然后让它们重新同步。
FELIPPE: Perfect.
FELIPPE：完美。
AL: So it’s very, very tradeable. Even if the volume is small, it cannot get more than a tick away from the Emini. If you’re scalping for 1 point, that could still be a problem. But if you’re willing to hold for a swing trade – 5 points, 10 points – then a tick one way or the other does not matter. So it’s definitely very tradeable.
AL：所以它非常适合交易。即使成交量很小，它也不会偏离迷你标普（ES）超过一个跳动点。如果你是做1点的剥头皮交易，这可能还是个问题。但如果你愿意持仓做波段交易——5点、10点——那么一个跳动点的上涨或下跌就无关紧要了。所以它绝对非常适合交易。
Impact of Al’s books
Al 书籍的影响力
FELIPPE: Great. Seventh: it’s been already 10 years since your first book, Bar by Bar , was published, and I was lucky enough to have access to it just a few weeks after the publishing. Thank you so much, Al. That book was a revelation to me and to many other traders. We were instantly hooked on the first few pages. Since then, I’ve studied and traded your methods every day, so I’ve been a witness to your effort and commitments since 2009.
FELIPPE：太好了。第七点：从你的第一本书《Bar by Bar》出版到现在，已经过去了10年，我很幸运地在出版后几周就看到了这本书。非常感谢你，Al。这本书对我和许多其他交易者来说都是一次启示。我们在读了前几页后就立刻被吸引住了。从那时起，我每天都在学习和实践你的方法，所以我从2009年起就见证了你的努力和付出。
Did you have any idea back then that what you were writing was the starting point of a revolutionary movement in trading that was going to have a positive impact on so many lives on a global scale? As you were writing, did you have any idea of what you were about to start? Because it’s huge nowadays, right?
你当时有没有意识到，你所写的东西将成为一场交易革命的起点，这场革命将在全球范围内对许多人的生活产生积极影响？当你在写作时，你有没有意识到你即将开始什么？因为现在这件事已经非常巨大了，对吧？
AL: Yeah.
AL: 对。
FELIPPE: I don’t even know if you know that is huge.
费利佩：我甚至不知道你是否知道那有多重要。
AL: I’m actually pretty much not aware because I just sit here in my office and I trade. I come out of the office a couple times a year and talk at conferences, and I see people and I get emails from people, so I know a certain number of people appreciate that I do. But that was not my intention. My intention was I was frustrated for years by the lack of reliable information about how to do this. There’s information on how to do everything – how to salsa dance, how to play the violin, how to kick a soccer ball – but there was not good information on how to trade.
AL：其实我不太清楚，因为我只是坐在办公室里交易。我一年只离开办公室几次去参加会议，在那里我会见到一些人，也会收到他们的邮件，所以我知道有一些人欣赏我所做的事情。但这并不是我的初衷。我的初衷是，我多年来一直对缺乏可靠的交易方法信息感到沮丧。关于如何做任何事情的信息都有——如何跳萨尔萨舞、如何拉小提琴、如何踢足球——但关于如何交易的信息却很少。
The obvious reason is because most successful traders are in it to make a lot of money, and they don’t want to spend a lot of time – even if they want to teach how to do it, it takes so much time to do it, to teach, that they just don’t want to do the time. For me, I just love teaching my girls all kinds of things, and I like living a very quiet life, very simple life. So I have a lot of time. I have a lot of time to think, and I enjoy trying to organize things. I also enjoy trying to put things into words.
最显而易见的原因是，大多数成功的交易者都是为了赚大钱而进入这个领域，他们不想花太多时间——即使他们想教别人如何做到这一点，但教学本身就需要花费大量时间，所以他们不愿意投入这些时间。对我来说，我只是喜欢教我的学生们各种各样的事情，我喜欢过一种非常安静、简单的生活。所以我有很多时间。我有充足的时间去思考，我喜欢尝试组织事物。我也喜欢尝试用语言表达事物。
So for me, it’s very satisfying to write my blog, to write books. When I did it, to be honest, I didn’t really care if it sold a single copy, and I didn’t really care if anybody liked it. I didn’t care if everybody hated it. I thought what I was putting out there was honest and helpful, and if somebody liked it, that’s wonderful. If people found it useless, that’s okay too. It’s working for me, and it’s out there, and if somebody wants to find it and if they find it helpful, that makes me happy.
对我来说，写博客和写书是一件非常令人满足的事情。说实话，当我做这些事情时，我并不在乎是否能卖出一本书，也不在乎别人是否喜欢它。我不在乎所有人是否讨厌它。我认为我所分享的内容是诚实且有帮助的，如果有人喜欢它，那就太好了。如果人们觉得它没用，那也没关系。这对我有用，我把它放在那里，如果有人想找到它并觉得它有帮助，那就让我很高兴。
But that was not my intention. I didn’t do it to become famous or to have people say, “That’s a Brooks idea.” I don’t care. When I’m trading, I don’t care about losing, and when I write, I don’t care if I’m famous or not famous. That’s not what motivates me. What motivates me is trying to do the right thing and trying to think about things logically and trying to find words that I can use to communicate what I’m thinking and what I’m doing so that other people can understand if they’re interested.
但这不是我的初衷。我这样做并不是为了出名，也不是为了让人们说“这是布鲁克斯的想法”。我不在乎。当我交易时，我不在乎亏损，当我写作时，我不在乎是否出名。这不是我的动力来源。我的动力来源是努力做正确的事情，努力逻辑地思考问题，并努力找到合适的词语来表达我的想法和行为，以便感兴趣的人能够理解。
FELIPPE: Great, Al. You talked before, in the first question or in the second question, about dishonest people that you used to have – well, you still have in America, but you used to have way more dishonest people in the ’80s. I think in Brazil, in the markets, we are at that point right now. There are a lot of dishonest people, crooks. It’s booming. It’s really booming here. There’s like three times more people investing in the stock market or futures market than we had a few years ago. So it’s booming now, and with YouTube, you can imagine all kinds of scams.
FELIPPE：很好，Al。你之前在第一个或第二个问题中提到过，你曾经遇到过不诚实的人——虽然美国现在仍然有，但80年代的不诚实的人要多得多。我认为巴西的市场现在正处于这个阶段。有很多不诚实的人，骗子。这正在蓬勃发展，真的在蓬勃发展。投资于股票市场或期货市场的人数是几年前的三倍。所以现在它正在蓬勃发展，有了YouTube，你可以想象各种各样的骗局。
AL: Yeah. That’s very frustrating for somebody starting out because a lot of the – there’s a term called a con artist.
AL：是的。这对刚入门的人来说非常令人沮丧，因为有很多——有一个术语叫“骗子”。
FELIPPE: I never heard of that.
FELIPPE：我从来没听说过这个词。
AL: What a con artist is, is a confidence artist. The best con artists, the best scammers, are the best-looking, the most articulate, most convincing, most charismatic people, and they get the most attention because they’re charismatic, they look good, they have good presentation. But if you think about it, the most effective scammer, the most effective fraud, is always going to look very convincing and persuasive.
骗子是什么？骗子就是“信任艺术家”。最高明的骗子、最厉害的诈骗犯，往往是长相最好、口才最棒、最有说服力、最有魅力的那种人。他们得到的关注最多，因为他们有魅力、外形好、表现力强。但你想一想，真正最有效的骗子、最高明的欺诈，永远是看起来非常可信、非常有说服力的那种人。
That makes it very hard for the consumer to know who’s honest and who’s not because this charismatic guy has a very good presentation and it looks like, “Gosh, he has to be good to have this wonderful presentation.” But it’s all fraud. It’s all a show. There’s not substance to it. If you listen to what he says and you think carefully about what he’s saying, he’s promising things that are too good to be true.
这让消费者很难分辨谁是诚实的，谁不是，因为这个有魅力的家伙有一个非常好的演讲，看起来像是“天哪，他一定很厉害才能有这么精彩的演讲”。但这都是骗局，都是表演，没有实质内容。如果你听他说的话，仔细思考他的话，他承诺的事情太好了，不可能是真的。
Anything that’s too good to be true is not true. Anybody who’s making it sound like you can have a big edge and win a lot of money doing anything is lying to you. The market is filled with lots of smart, hardworking people, and therefore, no matter how good you are, your advantage, your edge over anybody else, is always going to be small. So if you see somebody making it sound like it’s easy, “just learn these 5 rules or these 10 candlestick patterns,” the person is a fraud. He’s a fraud.
好得不像真的东西，就不是真的。任何人把这事说得好像你能拥有巨大优势、做什么都能赚很多钱，那他就是在骗你。市场里充满了聪明又勤奋的人，所以无论你多优秀，你相对于别人的优势、你的edge，永远都很小。所以如果你看到有人把这说得好像很容易，“只要学这5条规则或这10种K线形态”，那人就是骗子。就是骗子。
I always talk about trading – you’re living in a gray fog. You’re never as certain as you want to be, but if you develop enough systems and enough confidence and enough consistency, even though you’re in a gray fog and you’re going to make a lot of mistakes, you’re going to make money. You’re going to be successful.
我总说交易——你活在灰雾之中。你永远不会有你想要的那么确定，但如果你建立起足够的系统、足够的信心、足够的一致性，即使你身处灰雾之中，会犯很多错误，你仍会赚钱，你会成功。
FELIPPE: Yeah, it’s true, unfortunately for beginners.
FELIPPE: 是的，没错，对新手来说不幸的是这样。
AL: Yeah.
AL: 对。
What motivates, drives Al?
是什么激励着、驱动着 Al？
FELIPPE: The eighth question: most other successful traders never bother helping anyone. You said before that you like to help other people, but the energy you put in on this is way beyond what any other trader has done. It’s really kind of ridiculous what you do for traders. You give way more than whatever people give you back. What motivates you? What’s behind your drive? You have spoken about that before today, but if you can just talk a little bit more about this?
FELIPPE: 第八个问题：大多数其他成功的交易者从不费心帮助任何人。你之前说过你喜欢帮助别人，但你在这上面投入的精力远超其他任何交易者所做的。你为交易者做的事情真是有点不可思议。你付出的远比别人回馈给你的多。是什么激励着你？你这种动力背后是什么？你今天之前已经谈过这个，但能不能再多讲一点？
AL: I like thinking. I like thinking about markets and I like trying to come up with words – it’s like a game for me. It’s like a complex, never-ending game. I just like what I’m doing. I like thinking about it. I like trying to come up with words to describe what I’m thinking. I like to try to come up with ways of organizing things. It’s a lot of fun for me during the day, if I watch the market and I see patterns unfold and I anticipate what the market’s going to do. It’s fun. It’s profitable, but it’s fun. I just love doing it.
AL: 我喜欢思考。我喜欢思考市场，喜欢试着想出词语来描述——对我来说这就像一场游戏，一场复杂、永无止境的游戏。我就是喜欢我正在做的事。我喜欢琢磨它，喜欢试着想出词语来表达我所想的，喜欢试着找到把事物组织起来的方法。白天我盯盘时，看到形态展开，预判市场接下来会怎么走，这对我来说非常有趣。有趣，也能赚钱，但有趣。我就是热爱做这件事。
At the end of the day, I like thinking about it, and one of the things – I like writing about it too because when I’m writing about it, it’s a game. Can I come up with words quickly to describe what I’m seeing and what I think the market is doing? I just find it satisfying.
归根结底，我喜欢思考它，还有一件事——我也喜欢把它写下来，因为当我写作时，这就像一场游戏。我能快速想出词语来描述我所看到的和我认为市场正在做的事吗？我就是觉得这很有满足感。
I don’t like to compare myself to a painter or an artist, but a lot of famous artists spent all their time painting. You say, “Why are they doing that? Why don’t they go do something else? They’ve got all this money. Why don’t they go do something else?” Or a famous athlete. “Why doesn’t he go do more of something else? Why doesn’t he enjoy his money?” Or a famous actor.
我不喜欢把自己比作画家或艺术家，但许多著名的艺术家把所有时间都花在绘画上。你会说：“他们为什么要这样做？他们有这么多钱，为什么不去做其他事情？”或者一个著名的运动员。“他为什么不去做更多其他的事情？他为什么不享受他的钱？”或者一个著名的演员。
For me, it’s like any endeavor. If you get really good at it and you really love what you’re doing, you like doing that more than anything else, so I don’t want to go do that other stuff. I just want to sit here in my little office and think and type and trade. Every day, I can’t wait for the markets to open. Every day, I’m just excited and happy to have the markets open. I like to be in sync, I like to be synchronized with what the market is doing. It’s a very satisfying thing.
对我来说，这就像任何一项事业。如果你做得很好，并且真正热爱你所做的事情，你会比任何其他事情都更喜欢做这件事，所以我不想去做其他事情。我只想坐在我的小办公室里，思考、打字和交易。每天，我都迫不及待地等待市场开盘。每天，我都对市场的开盘感到兴奋和快乐。我喜欢与市场同步，我喜欢与市场的走势保持一致。这是一件非常令人满意的事情。
So I don’t think of it as trying to do more than anybody else. I think of it as it’s fun. It’s part of my routine. It’s how I think about the market. It helps me, tomorrow, see patterns better if I’m typing at the end of the day about the patterns.
所以我不认为这是在试图比别人做得更多。我认为这很有趣。这是我日常工作的一部分。这是我思考市场的方式。如果我在每天结束时打字记录市场形态，这有助于我在第二天更好地识别形态。
How simple can trading be?
交易能简单到什么程度？
FELIPPE: Awesome. If more people spent more time thinking on things that they like, whatever, humankind would be on a higher level, for sure. But people waste time on television and other stuff. [laughs] Great, Al. Ninth question: some people complain that your methodology can be hard to learn and apply. Do you agree with that? How simple can trading be, and how do you think traders can make trading simple and pleasurable for a happier life?
FELIPPE：太棒了。如果更多的人花更多时间思考他们喜欢的事情，无论是什么，人类肯定会达到更高的水平。但人们浪费时间在电视和其他事情上。（笑）很好，Al。第九个问题：有些人抱怨说你的交易方法很难学习和应用。你同意这种说法吗？交易能简单到什么程度，你认为交易者如何才能让交易变得简单和愉快，从而过上更幸福的生活？
AL: I think it’s very easy. As you know, I have hundreds of variations of different patterns. Someone starting out, if they look at that or if they look at 50 hours of videos, they can be overwhelmed. I think the best thing to do is start small. Just look for one type of pattern, like a strong breakout. Buy a strong bull breakout. Or a pullback, a bull flag. Buy a bull flag. Or a Wedge Top or a Wedge Bottom. Just pick one pattern and look for it every day and develop confidence in it, and just trade one pattern.
AL：我觉得这很简单。你知道，我有几百种不同形态的变体。刚入门的人，如果看到那些，或者看50个小时的视频，会不知所措。我觉得最好的做法是从小处着手。只找一种形态，比如强势突破。做多强势阳线突破。或者回撤，多头旗形。做多多头旗形。或者楔形顶、楔形底。就挑一种形态，每天只找它，建立信心，只交易那一种形态。
I honestly think that a person can make a living off a single pattern if he learns the different variations of that pattern. Now, if they understand money management, one of the key things, I think, is find out where the stop has to be and then go for a reward that is twice your stop and start from there. So look for a pattern, see where the stop is, try to go for a reward twice the distance to your stop. If the trade is falling apart, you get out early, but that’s the basic. You go for a reward equal to twice your risk, and even if you’re right only 40% of the time, it’s a profitable strategy.
我诚恳地认为，如果一个人学会了某种形态的不同变体，他就可以靠这种形态谋生。现在，如果他们理解资金管理，我认为关键之一是找出止损点在哪里，然后追求一个是止损点两倍的回报，从那里开始。所以，寻找一个形态，看看止损点在哪里，尝试追求一个是止损点两倍距离的回报。如果交易失败，你可以早点退出，但这就是基本原则。你追求的回报应该是风险的两倍，即使你只有40%的时间是正确的，这也是一种盈利的策略。
So yes, it’s complicated if you just look at it and say, “Ugh, there are hundreds of patterns and hundreds of variations. How can I do all that?” You don’t do all that. Pick one or two things and just look for them every day. As time goes on, once you get comfortable with those, then you can start looking at other things or variations of those patterns.
所以，是的，如果你只是看一眼就说，“哎呀，有数百种形态和数百种变体，我怎么能做到这一切？”那确实很复杂。但你不需要做到这一切。选择一两件事，每天只关注它们。随着时间的推移，一旦你对这些事情感到舒适，你就可以开始关注其他事情或这些形态的变体。
But you’re looking at making a career, making a lot of money. No matter what career you do – accountant, “Oh my gosh, I’ve got to learn all this balance sheet stuff and tax law?” Yeah, you do. Engineer, “Ugh, I’ve got to learn all these formulas?” Yeah, you do. You’ve got to learn them. Doctor, you’ve got to learn all these medicines and all these diseases? Yep, that’s what you have to do. In trading, there’s a certain amount of stuff that you have to learn if you’re going to make money doing it.
但你是在考虑建立职业生涯，赚很多钱。无论你从事什么职业——会计，“天哪，我得学所有这些资产负债表和税法？”是的，你得学。工程师，“哦，我得学所有这些公式？”是的，你得学。你必须学会这些。医生，你得学所有这些药物和疾病？是的，这就是你要做的事。在交易中，如果你想通过它赚钱，就必须学习一定量的知识。
FELIPPE: Yeah. Great advice, too. Master one pattern, go for swings, and go to Walmart, right?
FELIPPE：是的。也很棒的建议。掌握一种形态，做波段交易，然后去沃尔玛，对吧？
AL: That’s right. [laughs]
AL：没错。[笑]
FELIPPE: Great. Recently, we had some research from a local university, FGV, stating that over 95% of the day traders lose money on a consistent basis and that most would be better off as an Uber driver. This same research also concluded that results for day traders are not a function of time and the activity. Therefore, one can try all his life to make money as a day trader without any results. What are your thoughts on this, Al?
FELIPPE：很好。最近，我们当地一所大学FGV做了一项研究，指出超过95%的日内交易者在持续稳定地亏钱，而且大多数人还不如去开优步。这项研究还得出了结论：日内交易者的结果与投入的时间以及交易活动本身无关。因此，一个人可能花一辈子时间试图靠日内交易赚钱，却一无所获。Al，你怎么看？
AL: Without reading the study, my immediate thought is the guy is trying to get on TV. When he starts to say, “Don’t be a day trader, go drive Uber,” when you say things like that, it’s ridiculous, and you’re trying to get attention. That immediately makes me question the conclusions.
AL：在没有阅读研究报告的情况下，我的第一反应是这个人想上电视。当他开始说“别做日内交易，去开Uber”之类的话时，这很荒谬，他是在试图吸引注意力。这让我立即对他的结论产生怀疑。
I do think most day traders lose money, but I also think that a lot of day traders eventually make money. I get emails all the time from people who are doing very well. I agree that most traders starting out, if they’re day trading – most day traders are hobbyists. They’re doing it as a hobby. Some people play golf for a hobby. Golf course money. Some people go to soccer games. If going to soccer games is your hobby, it costs money. Some people day trade, and they do it as a hobby, not as a career.
我确实认为大多数日内交易者会亏钱，但我也认为很多日内交易者最终会赚钱。我经常收到一些做得很好的人的邮件。我同意，大多数刚开始交易的人，如果他们做日内交易——大多数日内交易者都是爱好者。他们把它当作爱好来做。有些人把高尔夫当作爱好。高尔夫球场的钱。有些人去看足球比赛。如果去看足球比赛是你的爱好，那就需要花钱。有些人做日内交易，他们把它当作爱好，而不是职业。
So if you lump in – let’s take a look at soccer players. Most people who play soccer lose money. They pay for soccer balls, they pay for soccer tickets, and they lose money. So should they stop playing soccer? No. It’s their hobby. Most people who do any activity – most people play golf. They spend money to buy golf clubs. They spend money on lessons. They spend money for greens fees. So they spend a lot of money, and they’re not making money. But they’re not doing it to make money.
所以如果我们把这些人归类在一起——让我们看看足球运动员。大多数踢足球的人都会亏钱。他们支付足球的费用，他们支付足球门票的费用，他们亏钱。所以他们应该停止踢足球吗？不。这是他们的爱好。大多数从事任何活动的人——大多数人打高尔夫。他们花钱买高尔夫球杆。他们花钱上课。他们花钱支付果岭费。所以他们花了很多钱，但他们没有赚钱。但他们不是为了赚钱而做这些事。
Most day traders are not really doing it to make money. Most day traders are doing it as an experiment. “Can I make a career change into as a trader?” So yes, if you lump in everybody who day trades, which is pretty much everybody – everybody tries it at one time or another; everybody tries some version of it – you’re going to come up with a very high number of losers. If most of those people are doing it to make money, yeah, they probably would make more money working at McDonald’s or driving an Uber car.
大多数日内交易者实际上不是为了赚钱而交易。大多数日内交易者把它当作一种实验。“我能否把职业转向交易员？”所以，是的，如果你把所有做日内交易的人归类在一起，这几乎是每个人——每个人都会在某个时候尝试它；每个人都会尝试某种版本——你会得出一个非常高的亏损者数字。如果这些人中的大多数是为了赚钱而交易，是的，他们可能在麦当劳工作或开Uber车会赚更多钱。
But if you just look at the serious people, the people who are doing it for a career and who are making a serious effort to get good at it, it’s not 95% who lose money. I think it’s a much, much lower percent. I think depending on which group you look at – if you just look at a basket of everybody who plays soccer or everybody who plays golf or everybody who tries day trading at one time or another, you’re going to come up with a very high percentage of people losing money and very few people making money as a career.
但如果你只看那些认真的人，那些把交易当成职业并努力提高自己的人，亏损的比例并不是95%。我认为这个比例要低得多。我认为这取决于你观察的群体——如果你只看那些踢足球的人、打高尔夫的人，或者那些曾经尝试过日内交易的人，你会发现亏损的比例很高，而能以此为职业并赚钱的人很少。
But if you look at the group, a much smaller group of people who are really dedicated to doing it and who are serious about doing it and are doing it in a very careful, systematic way, I think those people have a very high probability of making money.
但如果你观察那些真正专注于交易、认真对待交易并谨慎、系统地进行交易的更小群体，我认为这些人赚钱的概率非常高。
But making money is not enough, because I made a lot of money as an eye surgeon, but I didn’t like what I was doing. Therefore, simply making money as a day trader is not enough of a reason to become a professional day trader. It has to be for fun and for profit. Profit alone is not enough reason to do it. You have to be enjoying it.
但赚钱还不够，因为我作为眼科医生赚了很多钱，但我不喜欢我所做的事情。因此，仅仅作为日内交易者赚钱，并不是成为专业日内交易者的充分理由。这必须是为了乐趣和利润。单纯的利润并不是做这件事的充分理由。你必须享受它。
For me, for years, I didn’t enjoy it. I hated it because I was so stressed out all the time. But I was confident that I could find some way of doing it that would be compatible with my personality. It took me a long time, but eventually I did. So that study is sensational. There have been variations of that study forever, that 90% – or 95% in that study – 90% of day traders lose money. That’s true, but what about people who don’t day trade? What about traders who buy stock in their 401(k)? Do 95% of them lose money? No, 95% of them make money.
对我来说，多年来我都不喜欢它。我讨厌它，因为我总是感到压力很大。但我相信我能找到一种与我的性格相符的交易方式。这花了我很长时间，但我最终做到了。所以这项研究非常引人注目。这项研究一直有不同的版本，研究显示90%——或者95%——90%的日内交易者亏损。这是真的，但那些不做日内交易的人呢？那些在401(k)中买股票的交易者呢？他们中有95%的人亏损吗？不，他们中有95%的人赚钱。
Most people’s retirement money makes money. So if you’re willing to hold things for a year or two or three, or 10 or 20, you’re going to make money. The majority of people in the United States, their retirement money, part of it at least, is in stocks. And if they’re managing their money themselves, they’re buying stocks. And they’re doing it successfully.
大多数人的退休金都能赚钱。所以，如果你愿意持有资产一两年，或者三五年，甚至十几年、二十几年，你就能赚钱。美国大多数人的退休金，至少部分是投资在股票上的。如果他们自己管理资金，他们就会买股票。而且他们做得很成功。
So the difference is that group who does it with a long timeframe, a long horizon, they’re making money, and the people who do it trading a 1-minute chart are losing money. There’s somewhere in between there where the dividing line between losing and winning is, and you have to find out where the dividing line is for you. We talked about that earlier.
所以区别在于，那些以长期时间框架进行交易的群体在赚钱，而那些使用1分钟图表进行交易的人在亏损。亏损和盈利之间的分界线就在两者之间某处，你需要找出对你来说的分界线在哪里。我们之前讨论过这个问题。
FELIPPE: Yeah.
FELIPPE：是的。
AL: Some traders cannot profitably trade a 1-minute chart or a 5-minute chart or an hourly chart, and they’re better off just looking for trades on the daily chart, looking to buy and hold something for a day or two or three or a week or two or three. That study probably did not pay attention to that group. Does that answer the question?
AL：有些交易者无法在1分钟图、5分钟图或小时图上实现盈利交易，他们最好只关注日线图上的交易机会，寻找可以持有1天、2天、3天或1周、2周、3周的标的。这项研究可能没有关注到这一类交易者。这个回答解决了问题吗？
FELIPPE: Yes. It’s a matter of how serious you are about it, right?
FELIPPE：是的。这取决于你对它的重视程度，对吧？
AL: How serious and who you put in your study group. Are you including people who buy Apple and hold it for 10 years? They’re traders.
AL：重视程度以及你把谁纳入了研究群体。你是否把那些买入苹果股票并持有10年的人也算作交易者？他们也是交易者。
FELIPPE: Very interesting. We are in historical highs all over the world. If you think about it, nobody would ever lose money if they managed it correctly. Never. They wouldn’t lose money in stocks because we are in historical highs. Very interesting.
FELIPPE：非常有趣。全球各地都处于历史高点。如果你仔细想想，如果他们管理得当，没有人会亏损。从来不会。他们不会在股票上亏损，因为我们正处于历史高点。非常有趣。
Should traders develop their own trading style?
交易者是否应该发展自己的交易风格？
Eleventh: how important do you believe it is for a trader to develop his or her own style of trading? Should they back test it in a demo account or trade small in the real market? Also, Al, in the same question, for traders that are studying your methodology, do you think they should stick to exactly what you say or they should try to adapt to their personality?
第十一点：你认为交易者发展自己的交易风格有多重要？他们应该在模拟账户中进行回测，还是在实盘中进行小额交易？此外，Al，在同一个问题中，对于正在学习你的方法的交易者，你认为他们应该严格遵循你所说的，还是应该尝试适应自己的性格？
AL: I think, as I said, you cannot make a living as a trader unless two things: you’re doing it profitably and you’re having fun. There are countless ways to trade profitably. What you have to do is find a way that’s compatible with your personality. It’s not as if my approach to the market is the only approach. There are also a lot of people who do what I do, and they use other words to describe what they’re doing. But they’re doing what I’m doing; they’re just talking about it using different words.
AL：我认为，正如我所说的，除非满足两个条件，否则你无法以交易为生：你能实现盈利交易，并且你享受交易。实现盈利交易的方法有无数种。你需要做的就是找到一种与你的性格相符的方法。我的市场交易方法并不是唯一的。也有很多人做着与我相同的事情，但他们用其他词语来描述他们的行为。但他们做的事情与我相同，只是用不同的词语来描述。
I think a person starting out should paper trade for a certain period of time, but within months, I would start trading real money, but I would trade very small, like Forex markets, and trade 10,000 units. Or trade Micro Eminis, because you need to engage the emotions, which are real. Unless you have real money on the line, even if it’s very small money, you cannot start to work through the emotional aspects of trading. So I think it’s important to soon, within months, start to make little trades – at least, for example, trading 10,000 Forex units and holding a trade, looking for a trade to hold for a day or two or three, and then reduce your timeframe if you want.
我认为，一个初学者应该在一段时间内进行模拟交易，但在几个月内，我就会开始用真金白银进行交易，但交易规模会非常小，比如外汇市场，交易10,000单位。或者交易微型迷你标普，因为你需要面对真实的情绪。除非你有真实的资金风险，即使是很小的资金，否则你无法开始处理交易中的情绪问题。因此，我认为在几个月内尽快开始进行小额交易是很重要的——至少，例如，交易10,000单位外汇并持有一笔交易，寻找可以持有1天、2天或3天的交易机会，然后根据需要缩短时间框架。
Funny experiences as a trader
作为交易员的趣事
FELIPPE: Great. This is the last question. I can see you’re losing your voice. With such a long career as a trader, do you remember any funny situations, such as people that could not understand what you do for a living, or even suggesting what a big screw-up you’ve made moving to be a big trader? Or even something really stupid you did in the market.
费利佩：太好了，这是最后一个问题。我看到你已经快说不出话来了。作为一名交易员，你有着漫长的职业生涯，你还记得任何有趣的情况吗？比如有人不理解你的工作，甚至认为你成为一名大交易员是一个巨大的错误？或者你在市场上做过什么非常愚蠢的事情。
For instance, every time I say to people – I’ve been trading for many, many, many years as well. Not as many as you, but when I say to people – they ask, “What do you do for a living?” “Oh, I trade. I trade the markets.” They say, “Oh, great, that’s awesome. But what’s your real job?” [laughs] Things like that happen, right? Do you remember any funny situations?
例如，每次我对别人说——我也做了很多很多年的交易了，虽然没有你那么久，但当我对别人说——他们问我：“你靠什么谋生？”“哦，我做交易，我交易市场。”他们说：“哦，太好了，那太棒了。但你真正的职业是什么？”[笑]这样的事情发生过，对吧？你还记得任何有趣的情况吗？
AL: I can tell you back in the ’90s, when day trading started to become popular, it was portrayed in the media as gambling and addicted people were losing all their money. The image of a day trader was really a terrible image. At least, the media presented it that way. So in the United States, the perception among people was if you’re a day trader, you’re a gambling addict and you’re a loser and you’re going to end up broke and you’re going to ruin your family. You’ll just ruin your life.
阿尔：我可以告诉你，在90年代，当日内交易开始流行时，媒体将其描绘成一种赌博，成瘾者会输掉所有钱。日内交易员的形象非常糟糕，至少媒体是这样呈现的。因此，在美国，人们的看法是，如果你是日内交易员，你就是一个赌博成瘾者，你是一个失败者，你最终会破产，你会毁了你的家庭，你会毁了你的生活。
I thought about it and I said, hmm, it’s an honest profession, and if I do it profitably and I’m doing an honest profession and I’m doing something good – I think of myself as a liquidity provider. There are tens of thousands of people like me, and we add liquidity to the system. I take a lot of trades, it adds volume, and if enough people do it, the bid-ask spreads become small and it becomes difficult, virtually impossible, for firms or anybody to manipulate the market. So I feel like I’m making a contribution to the market by adding my little piece of volume to it.
我想了想，我说，嗯，这是一个诚实的职业，如果我能盈利地做这份工作，我是在做一个诚实的职业，我是在做一件好事——我把自己看作是一个流动性提供者。和我一样的人有成千上万，我们为系统增加了流动性。我做了很多交易，这增加了成交量，如果足够多的人这样做，买卖价差就会变小，对公司或任何人来说，操纵市场都会变得困难，几乎不可能。所以我觉得我通过为市场增加一点点成交量，为市场做出了贡献。
So here I am thinking that I’m doing something good, I’m following the rules, I’m 100% totally honest about what I’m doing, what I’m doing is entirely legal, and I’m doing a tiny thing of what Warren Buffett is doing. He’s trading over a timeframe of years; I’m trading over a timeframe of minutes, but it’s comparable. Why should I be embarrassed? Why should I be embarrassed about this, no matter how the press is presenting it? I’m proud of what I’m doing.
所以我在这里想，我在做一件好事，我在遵守规则，我对我所做的事情100%诚实，我所做的事情完全合法，我在做一件与沃伦·巴菲特所做的事情相似的小事。他交易的时间跨度是几年；我交易的时间跨度是几分钟，但这是可比的。我为什么要感到尴尬？无论媒体如何呈现，我为什么要为这件事感到尴尬？我为我所做的事情感到自豪。
People would ask me, “Al, what do you do for a living?” and I’d say, “I’m a day trader.” I would say it kind of in their face, look at them right in the eye and say, “I’m a day trader. What’ve you got to say about that?”
人们会问我：“阿尔，你靠什么谋生？”我会说：“我是日内交易员。”我会直视他们的眼睛，说：“我是日内交易员，你有什么要说的？”
FELIPPE: [laughs] You like to see their reaction. It’s fun.
费利佩：[笑]你喜欢看他们的反应，很有趣。
AL: Yeah, I dare them to say, “You’re a gambling addict, you’re a loser.” That’s not – what I do, I do it well.
AL：是的，我敢让他们说：“你是个赌徒，你是个失败者。” 但事实并非如此——我做的事情，我做得很好。
I want to say one other thing about this. There are lots of jobs in society. There are people who clean the streets. There are people who clean the sewers. There are people who do all kinds of horrible jobs that we would never, ever consider doing. Some of them, they’ve done it well and they’ve organized big businesses.
我想再说一件事。社会上有很多工作。有人在清扫街道，有人在清理下水道，还有人做着各种我们永远不会考虑做的糟糕工作。其中一些人做得很好，并组织了大型企业。
I have a friend who makes a million dollars a year running a janitor company. He has hundreds of janitors working for him. I have another friend who owns a trucking company and has several hundred trucks. When I go fishing with him, every now and then someone will say, “Hey, what do you guys do for a living?” I’ll say, “I’m a day trader” and he’ll say, “I’m a truck driver.” He’s a truck driver. He owns hundreds of trucks and he makes a fortune.
我有一个朋友，他经营一家清洁公司，每年赚一百万美元。他手下有数百名清洁工。我还有一个朋友，他拥有一家卡车公司，有几百辆卡车。当我和他一起去钓鱼时，偶尔有人会问：“嘿，你们靠什么谋生？”我会说：“我是日内交易员”，而他会说：“我是卡车司机。”他就是个卡车司机。他拥有数百辆卡车，赚了很多钱。
My point is, there are all kinds of things in society that are legal. A lot of them you would never imagine doing, but people can make a lot of money doing anything, including being a janitor or being a truck driver. If you build the business up enough, you can make a lot of money. I think anybody who is doing something that’s honest and following the rules and being very successful about it, they deserve admiration, not scorn or disdain or ridicule.
我的观点是，社会上有各种各样合法的东西。其中很多是你永远不会想去做的，但人们可以通过做任何事情赚很多钱，包括当清洁工或卡车司机。如果你把生意做得足够大，就能赚很多钱。我认为，任何人只要做的事情是诚实的、遵守规则的，并且非常成功，他们就值得钦佩，而不是受到蔑视或嘲笑。
So as a day trader, I feel like I’m doing a good thing, and I’m proud of it. I don’t care if someone looks at me and says, “You’re trash.” I don’t care.
所以，作为一名日内交易员，我觉得我在做一件好事，我为此感到自豪。我不在乎有人看着我说：“你是垃圾。”我不在乎。
FELIPPE: All right. Al, thank you so much for this interview. It was really not only an honor, but I learned a lot talking here to you. Thank you so much for everything you do for traders like me and people that are trying to learn. Thank you for your efforts and time, every time, trying to help people. Thank you very much.
FELIPPE：好的。Al，非常感谢你接受这次采访。这不仅是一种荣幸，而且我从与你的交谈中学到了很多东西。非常感谢你为像我这样的交易员和那些试图学习的人所做的一切。感谢你每次都努力帮助别人，感谢你付出的努力和时间。非常感谢你。
AL: I appreciate that. I appreciate the kind words and I appreciate having the opportunity to speak with your community. Thank you very much.
AL：我很感激。感谢你的赞美之词，也感谢有机会与你的社区交流。非常感谢你。
FELIPPE: Thank you.
FELIPPE：谢谢你。