本文为 MEPA 导入的中英对照学习资料，原文归原作者及原站所有；中文译文尚未逐篇校对。页面日期为本站收录日期，原资料生成时间不代表原文发布日期。
原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/china-futures-daily-interview-part-1/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 15:35
China Futures Daily Q&A: Part 1 – Q1 to Q7
中国期货日报问答：第一部分——问题1至问题7
Al Brooks will visit China for a lecturing trip next month organized by the publisher of Al’s Trading Price Action books (Chinese versions). The exact schedule is not yet finalized and details will be published soon to help anyone interested in joining Al.
下个月，Al Brooks 将应其价格行为交易书籍（中文版本）出版商的邀请，前往中国进行讲学之旅。具体行程尚未最终确定，详细信息将很快公布，以便有意参加的读者加入 Al 的活动。
To help promote Al’s visit, the China Futures Daily News website invited Al to answer a series of questions, and an audio recording and transcript is below. This is part 1 (Q1-Q7), and part 2 (Q8-Q12) will be published next weekend.
为了宣传 Al 的到访，中国期货日报新闻网站邀请 Al 回答了一系列问题，音频记录和文字稿如下。这是第一部分（问题1-7），第二部分（问题8-12）将在下周末发布。
Enjoy!
请尽情享用！
Audio recording – Questions 1 to 7
音频记录——问题1至7
Audio duration: 27min 06sec
音频时长：27分06秒
Question #1: You said you were an eye doctor. We know it’s hard to be an eye doctor, and it’s a highly paid and stable job. Why did you decide to start a new career and be a professional trader? Were there some special experiences and stories?
问题1：你说过你是眼科医生。我们知道当眼科医生很难，这是一份高薪且稳定的工作。你为什么决定开始新的职业生涯，成为一名专业交易员？是否有一些特别的经历和故事？
A trading career
交易职业生涯
I went to the University of Chicago for medical school. I got my M.D. degree there. All of the time, I wondered if I should have been downtown at the Chicago Board of Trade, or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, trading futures.
我去芝加哥大学读了医学院，在那里获得了医学博士学位。那时候，我总在想，我是否应该去市中心的芝加哥期货交易所或芝加哥商品交易所，做期货交易。
When I was a child, we grew up poor. There were six of us in a two-bedroom house. We had one bathroom and no shower. I did not have my first shower until I was 14 years old and in high school.
我小时候，我们家很穷。我们六个人住在一栋两居室的房子里，只有一个卫生间，没有淋浴。我直到14岁上高中时才第一次洗淋浴。
My father dropped out of school when he was 8 years old. I did not have guidance as to what to do with my career. My mother thought it would be wonderful if her oldest boy would become a doctor. She told me that she would like me to become an eye surgeon.
我父亲8岁就辍学了。我没有得到关于职业规划的指导。我母亲认为，如果她的大儿子能成为一名医生，那将是件很棒的事。她告诉我，她希望我成为一名眼科医生。
My grandparents were immigrants from Quebec, French-Canadian immigrants. Our culture was one of having a lot of respect for elders. When my mother told me that she wanted me to become an eye surgeon, I did not give any thought to what I might like to do. I thought the appropriate thing for me to do was to do what she wanted me to do.
我的祖父母是来自魁北克的移民，是法裔加拿大移民。我们的文化非常尊重长辈。当我母亲告诉我她希望我成为一名眼科医生时，我没有考虑过自己想做什么。我认为，对我来说，做她希望我做的事是正确的。
As a result, I became an eye surgeon. Yes, it was highly paid and it was a very stable job, but all of the time when I was in medical school and in my residency at the University of Chicago, I kept wondering if I really should be downtown trading futures. I’ve always been fascinated by financial markets, and Chicago was the futures trading capital of the world. It was only a few miles away, but I was too afraid to give up what was a sure career path to a lot of money.
结果，我成为了一名眼科医生。是的，这份工作薪水很高，也很稳定，但当我在芝加哥大学读医学院和实习时，我总是想知道，我是否真的应该去市中心做期货交易。我一直对金融市场着迷，而芝加哥是世界期货交易之都。它离我只有几英里远，但我太害怕放弃这条确定的、能赚很多钱的职业道路了。
A few years later, I briefly taught eye surgery at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, and then moved to Los Angeles. After 10 years in practice, I had a daughter, and then 15 months later I had identical twin daughters. I thought this was a perfect excuse to quit my career and stay at home and raise the girls. I had enough money saved up so that I could stay home, trade, and raise my girls.
几年后，我在佐治亚州亚特兰大的埃默里大学短暂地教过眼科手术，然后搬到了洛杉矶。行医10年后，我生了一个女儿，15个月后又生了一对双胞胎女儿。我认为这是一个完美的理由，可以辞去工作，留在家里抚养孩子。我存够了钱，可以留在家里，做交易，抚养我的女儿们。
My hope was that I could train them to have great careers right from college and not have to wait 15 or more years the way I did. I did a great job. My girls graduated from Berkeley, Yale, Harvard, and Stanford. They all have excellent careers and they’re doing very well.
我的希望是，我可以训练她们从大学开始就有很好的职业，而不必像我一样等待15年或更长时间。我做得很好。我的女儿们毕业于伯克利、耶鲁、哈佛和斯坦福。她们都有很好的职业，并且做得很好。
I started trading a few months before the 1987 stock market crash. I remember, the day of the crash I had 13 S&P futures contracts that were short, thinking that the stock market was going to go down big on the morning of the stock market crash. That is the equivalent of 65 E-Mini contracts today.
我在1987年股市崩盘前几个月开始交易。我记得，在崩盘当天，我持有13份标普期货空头合约，认为股市将在股市崩盘的早晨大幅下跌。这相当于今天的65份E-Mini合约。
When I got to work, no one knew for sure how far the stock market had fallen, but I had to close out my positions before I went to work because I had a full surgery schedule. Had I stayed home, and if I had stayed in my positions, I would have made $400,000 on the day. That would be about a million dollars in dollars today.
当我开始工作时，没有人确切知道股市跌了多少，但我必须在去上班之前平掉我的仓位，因为我有一整天的手术安排。如果我留在家里，并且继续持有我的仓位，那天我本可以赚40万美元。按今天的美元计算，那大约是一百万美元。
That was the day that changed my life and made me believe that I could make a lot of money as a trader.
那是改变我生活的一天，让我相信自己可以通过交易赚很多钱。
Unfortunately, I came from a medical background, and the paradigm was that you learn from the people who went before you. You spend a lot of time studying, reading books, and learning your trade. However, the futures industry back in the 1980s was filled with dishonest people. I spent a lot of time reading every book that I could find and taking a lot of courses, yet I ended up consistently losing money. This went on for about 10 years.
不幸的是，我出身于医学背景，当时的范式是向前辈学习。你要花很多时间学习、阅读书籍，掌握你的交易技能。然而，20世纪80年代的期货行业充满了不诚实的人。我花了大量时间阅读能找到的每一本书，参加了许多课程，但结果却总是亏钱。这种情况持续了大约10年。
It wasn’t a disaster; I had a lot of money saved up, and I was having a good time raising my daughters. However, it was clearly the wrong path. Every day at the end of the day, I would print out a chart of the stock index futures and see that there were obvious opportunities to make a lot of money. I would ask myself, why didn’t I take those trades?
这并不是灾难；我存了很多钱，并且很享受抚养女儿的时光。但显然，这是一条错误的道路。每天收盘后，我都会打印出一份股指期货图表，发现有很多明显的赚钱机会。我会问自己，为什么我没有做那些交易？
The reason I did not is because everything that I learned from reading books told me not to take those trades, and much of what I learned told me to do the opposite. I began to get rid of all of the indicators and only look at a bar chart, a 5-minute bar chart. I began to notice all kinds of relationships and patterns, and I began to trade them. Over time I quickly learned that I could become very profitable – very consistently profitable – by simply looking at charts and ignoring indicators, and ignoring the news, and ignoring what anyone else writes or says. That was the turning point in my career.
我没有做那些交易的原因是，我从书中学到的所有东西都告诉我不要做那些交易，我学到的很多东西都告诉我要做相反的事情。我开始抛弃所有指标，只看K线图，5分钟K线图。我开始注意到各种关系和模式，并开始根据它们进行交易。随着时间的推移，我很快意识到，只需看图表，忽略指标、新闻和任何人写或说的话，我就能获得非常可观且稳定的利润。那是我职业生涯的转折点。
Over time, I began to observe more and more things about the stock market. Now, I trade mostly E-Mini futures. I also trade the bond futures, crude oil, gold, and stocks and stock options. But most of what I do is trade stock index futures, in particular, the E-Mini.
随着时间的推移，我开始观察到越来越多关于股市的事情。现在，我主要交易E-Mini期货。我还交易债券期货、原油、黄金、股票和股票期权。但我做的大部分是交易股指期货，尤其是E-Mini。
There are 81 bars during the day session on the 5-minute chart in the E-Mini. On an average day, I see about 40 trades that are reasonable setups for 1 point scalps in the E-Mini. I think a 1-point scalp is the smallest size scalp that a person should ever trade. If you trade for smaller than that, you have a problem with commissions, slippage, execution, so that it becomes very difficult to be profitable.
在E-Mini的5分钟图表上，日盘期间有81根K线。在平均一天中，我会看到大约40笔交易，这些交易是E-Mini中1点剥头皮的合理设定的。我认为1点剥头皮是任何人应该交易的最小规模的剥头皮。如果你交易的规模比这更小，你会在佣金、滑点、执行方面遇到问题，从而很难获得利润。
For most traders, even trading for a 1 point scalp is too small. Most traders should look for swing trades. In the E-Mini, when I talk about a swing trade, I mean a trade that moves at least 4 points, has at least 2 legs, and lasts at least 10 bars.
对大多数交易者来说，即使是1点的剥头皮交易也显得太小。大多数交易者应该寻找波段交易机会。在迷你标普（ES）中，当我谈论波段交易时，我指的是至少移动4点、至少有2个推进段、且持续至少10根K线的交易。
Now, as I said, I see about 40 trades during the day for 1 point scalps and about 20 trades that are good for 2 point scalps. I also see two to five trades a day that are good for 4 point scalps. If you do the math, it doesn’t take much to realize if a trader can consistently make 3 or 4 points a day, he can make a very good living by simply increasing his trading position size.
正如我说的，我每天能看到大约40次1点剥头皮的交易机会，以及大约20次适合2点剥头皮的交易机会。我每天还能看到2到5次适合4点剥头皮的交易机会。如果你算一算，就会很容易意识到，如果一个交易者能每天稳定地赚取3或4点，他只需要增加仓位大小，就能过上非常好的生活。
Question #2: How did you set up your trading system, step-by-step?
问题 #2：你是如何一步步建立你的交易系统的？
Setting up a trading system
建立交易系统
Well, like I said, I began printing out charts every day and looking for every possible setup and every possible relationship. I need more than just entries; I also need stops and profit targets. I began to study the mathematics, and I realized that everyone was talking about risk-reward ratios, but there was an equally important variable – that is, probability.
就像我说的，我开始每天打印图表，寻找所有可能的形态和所有可能的关联。我需要的不仅仅是入场点，还需要止损和盈利目标。我开始研究数学，我意识到每个人都在谈论风险回报比，但还有一个同样重要的变量——那就是概率。
Risk-reward is meaningless unless you also think about probability. For example, if you have a trade that has a reward that is 10 times greater than the risk, would you take the trade if you only had a 5% chance of success? Think about that. That is a losing strategy. You will lose money.
风险回报比在不考虑概率的情况下是毫无意义的。比如，你有一笔交易，目标位是风险的10倍，但你只有5%的成功概率，你会愿意入场吗？好好想想。这是个亏损的策略，你会亏钱。
For me, I think about trading in terms of what I call the Trader’s Equation. That means that I need the probability of a profit times the size of the profit to be greater than the probability of a loss times the size of the loss. As long as that equation is positive, then a trade makes mathematical sense.
对我来说，我用我所谓的“交易者方程”来思考交易。这意味着我需要获利的概率乘以获利的大小，大于亏损的概率乘以亏损的大小。只要这个方程是正值，那么交易在数学上就是合理的。
I also realized that when I looked at charts, setups that looked really good were not as good as they looked. In addition, setups that looked terrible were often fantastic, and that led me to conclude that during 90% of the bars on the chart, the probability of a profitable trade if you buy is always between 40% and 60% and the probability of a profitable trade if you sell is also between 40% and 60%.
我还发现，当我查看图表时，那些看起来非常好的形态其实并没有那么好。此外，那些看起来很糟糕的形态往往非常棒。这让我得出结论，在图表上90%的K线中，如果你买入，获利交易的概率始终在40%到60%之间，如果你卖出，获利交易的概率也在40%到60%之间。
I said 90% of the bars on the chart. During 10% of the bars on any chart on any timeframe in any market, the market’s in a strong breakout. When that is the case, you should only trade in the direction of the trend. The risk is far greater because the stop is further away, yet the Trader’s Equation is profitable because the probability of making a profit is so high.
我说过，图表上的90%的K线都是这样。在任何市场、任何时间周期的图表上，有10%的K线显示市场处于强劲的突破状态。在这种情况下，你只应该顺着趋势方向交易。风险要大得多，因为止损点更远，但交易者方程式是盈利的，因为获利的概率非常高。
During 90% of the bars on every chart, the chart is either in a channel or in a trading range. When that is the case, a trader can make money at any minute buying or selling if he uses the appropriate stop and is willing to scale in properly and uses an appropriate profit target.
在90%的K线中，图表要么处于通道中，要么处于交易区间内。在这种情况下，如果交易者使用适当的止损，愿意合理地分批建仓，并设定合适的获利目标，那么他可以在任何一分钟通过买入或卖出获利。
That’s how I trade today. When there is a strong breakout, I only trade in the direction of the trend. The probability is high that I’ll make a profit. However, I often take a profit that is relatively small compared to my initial risk. During the other 90% of the bars on the chart, I can buy or sell and make money if I manage my trade correctly.
这就是我现在的交易方式。当出现强势突破时，我只顺着趋势方向交易。我获利的概率很高。然而，与我最初的风险相比，我通常获得的利润相对较小。在图表上其他90%的K线中，如果我正确地管理交易，我可以买入或卖出并获利。
If the market is in a fairly tight channel – for example, a bull channel – I prefer only to buy. If it’s in a fairly tight bear channel, I prefer only to sell. If it’s in a broad channel – for example, in a bull channel, I’ll sell at new highs and buy pullbacks. If it’s in a broad bear channel, I’ll buy new lows and sell rallies that go up about 50% of the height of the prior leg down. If it’s in a trading range, I buy low, sell high, and I scalp.
如果市场处于一个相对窄幅的通道中——比如多头通道——我只喜欢买入。如果它处于一个相对窄幅的空头通道中，我只喜欢卖出。如果它处于一个宽通道中——比如多头通道，我会在新高位卖出，在回撤时买入。如果它处于一个宽幅的空头通道中，我会在新低位买入，并在反弹至前一波下跌高度约50%时卖出。如果它处于交易区间内，我低买高卖，做短线交易。
Question #3: Your first book has been widely praised in China. Many traders think that your book is valuable. In your opinion, what’s the biggest difference between your book and other trading books?
问题 #3：你的《第一本书》在中国广受好评，许多交易者认为你的书很有价值。在你看来，你的书与其他交易书籍的最大区别是什么？
Trading books
交易书籍
I think that’s a mistake. I think every trader should get confidence in their ability to analyze what is in front of them and ignore everything else.
我认为这是一个错误。我认为每个交易者都应该对自己分析眼前情况的能力充满信心，并忽略其他一切。
In particular, they should ignore “experts” on television. Most of the experts on television are not traders; they are analysts, and they do not know how to trade. If they could make money trading, they would be trading. In general, it’s very difficult to find a very good trader on television because they’re busy trading.
尤其是，他们应该忽略电视上的“专家”。电视上的大多数专家都不是交易员，他们是分析师，他们不知道如何交易。如果他们能通过交易赚钱，他们就会去交易。总的来说，在电视上很难找到一个非常好的交易员，因为他们都在忙着交易。
One of the problems with most of the books is that the logic simply does not make sense. If you look carefully at what they’re writing, there’s no profitable way to make money. There’s no mathematical basis for what they’re doing. Most of them rely heavily on indicators. All indicators are derived from price charts. I’d rather look at the price charts directly instead of converting the information into an indicator and then looking at the indicator. Price charts contain an incredible amount of information; a lot of it is hidden if you concentrate on indicators.
大多数书的问题之一在于它们的逻辑根本说不通。如果你仔细看看他们写的东西，你会发现没有可盈利的方法来赚钱。他们所做的事情没有数学依据。大多数人严重依赖指标。所有指标都来源于价格图表。我宁愿直接看价格图表，而不是将信息转换成指标，然后再看指标。价格图表包含着大量信息，如果你专注于指标，其中许多信息就会被隐藏起来。
Heavily traded markets, like the E-Mini futures contract, a lot of the big ETFs, bond futures, gold futures, and crude oil futures, are heavily computerized. The vast majority of the volume is traded by computers using algorithms. The algorithms are logical. That means that every little tick, movement up or down on every chart is there for a reason. Therefore, there’s information coming to me with every tick on every chart.
交易量大的市场，比如迷你标普期货合约、许多大型ETF、债券期货、黄金期货和原油期货，都高度计算机化。绝大部分交易量是由计算机使用算法完成的。这些算法是逻辑性的。这意味着图表上每一次微小的波动、每一次上涨或下跌都有其原因。因此，每一次K线的波动都会给我带来信息。
One of the things that annoys me when I read work by other people is they often talk about “noise.” That implies that there’s something random about the markets. That is total nonsense. Every little move that you see during the day on every chart on every timeframe takes place because of a reason. If the market goes up even 1 tick, it’s because at that instant, more dollars believe the market is priced too low and has to go higher to find enough sellers. If it goes down even 1 little tick, that means at that, instant, there are not enough buyers at that current price. The market’s too expensive. It has to go down lower to find more buyers.
当我阅读他人作品时，有一件事让我感到烦恼，那就是他们经常谈论“噪音”。这意味着市场存在某种随机性。这是完全无稽之谈。你在每张图表上、每个时间框架内看到的每一次小幅波动，都是有原因的。如果市场上涨哪怕1个点，那是因为在那一刻，更多的人认为市场价格太低，必须上涨才能找到足够的卖家。如果它下跌哪怕1个小点，那意味着在那一刻，当前价格下没有足够的买家。市场太贵了。它必须下跌才能找到更多买家。
With experience, if you look at enough charts, there is evidence before the market goes up a tick or goes down a tick that it will make a move up or down. That’s true on all timeframes. My goal as a trader is to try to find a mathematical advantage. I want some combination of probability and risk and reward that allows me to structure a profitable trade.
随着经验的积累，如果你看了足够多的图表，你会在市场上涨或下跌之前发现它将上涨或下跌的迹象。这在所有时间框架内都是如此。作为一名交易者，我的目标是尝试找到数学上的优势。我希望找到概率、风险和回报的某种组合，使我能够构建一个盈利的交易。
I look at what the market is doing and try to assess buying pressure and selling pressure. If the market is going sideways or mostly sideways, I try to determine, is it more likely to go up or go down? If I formulate an opinion, I then try to structure a trade. Do I buy, do I sell, where’s my stop? If the trade requires a stop of a certain size, what is a reasonable profit target?
我观察市场的走势，并尝试评估买盘压力和卖盘压力。如果市场横向波动或基本横向波动，我会尝试判断它更有可能上涨还是下跌。如果我形成了一个观点，我就会尝试构建一个交易。我买入还是卖出？我的止损位在哪里？如果交易需要一定大小的止损，合理的盈利目标是什么？
I think most of the books out there and most of the websites out there do not spend enough time thinking about what the markets are doing. I think most of the work that I read is written by people who really do not understand the function of markets and the behavior of markets. My emphasis is always on trying to understand what the market is trying to do.
我认为市面上大多数书籍和网站都没有花足够的时间去思考市场在做什么。我认为我读过的大部分作品都是由不理解市场功能和市场行为的人所写。我的重点始终是尝试理解市场在试图做什么。
Question #4: What’s the difference and interrelation between a trend move and a range move?
问题4：趋势行情和区间行情有什么区别和关联？
Trends and trading ranges
趋势与交易区间
I look at every bar on every chart as either a trend or a trading range. A bar, if it opens on its low and closes on its high, I view that as a bull trend bar. If it opens on its high and closes on its low, I view that as a bear trend bar. If there’s a big tail on the top or bottom, if it closes somewhere in the middle, I view that as a 1 bar trading range.
我把图表上的每一根K线都看作是趋势或交易区间。如果一根K线在低点开盘并在高点收盘，我将其视为多头趋势K线。如果它在高点开盘并在低点收盘，我将其视为空头趋势K线。如果顶部或底部有长影线，且收盘价位于中间位置，我将其视为1根K线的交易区间。
The market is constantly probing up and down. The fair price, best price, the price where most buyers and sellers will want to trade, is never known and it’s always changing. However, there is a range of a fair price, and the market always is probing up and down to find where that range is. It usually has to go too far up before it knows that it’s gone far enough up, and then it reverses and it probes down. It usually has to go too far down before it concludes that it has gone down too far and it has to reverse and start probing up.
市场不断地上下试探。公平价格、最佳价格、大多数买卖方愿意交易的价格永远是未知的，且不断变化。然而，公平价格有一个范围，市场总是在上下试探以寻找这个范围。通常它必须上涨得过高，才能意识到已经上涨得足够高，然后反转并下探。通常它必须下跌得过低，才能得出结论，已经下跌得过低，必须反转并开始上探。
This is true on all timeframes on every chart. As I said a few minutes ago, during 90% of the time the market is in a probing pattern. It’s probing up and down. A trading range or a channel. When that is the case, a good trader can make money buying or selling at any instant if he structures his trade properly and manages his trade properly.
这在所有时间框架的图表上都是如此。正如我几分钟前所说，市场90%的时间都处于试探模式。它上下试探，形成交易区间或通道。在这种情况下，如果交易者正确地构建和管理交易，他可以在任何时刻通过买入或卖出获利。
Only during 10% of the bars on the chart is the market quickly moving up or down. That is a breakout. That is a time of consensus between the bulls and bears that the price is wrong. They both agree that the market has to quickly move to a new price level where, again, the market will be confused and balanced. The goal of every market is a range – that is, an area of confusion, an area where both the bulls and the bears feel that the price is appropriate.
只有在图表上10%的K线中，市场才会快速地上升或下降。这就是突破。这是多头和空头之间达成共识的时刻，认为价格是错误的。他们都同意市场必须迅速移动到一个新的价格水平，在那里市场再次感到困惑和平衡。每个市场的目标都是一个区间——即一个混乱区域，一个多头和空头都认为价格合适的区域。
I have lots of ways to estimate how far a breakout will go. I call them measured move projections. I do not have enough time to talk about all the ways right now, but there are many ways. For example, based upon the height of the breakout, based upon the trading range from which the market broke out, there are Leg 1 = Leg 2 measured moves. There are measured moves based upon gaps. I use a very broad definition of a gap. What I call a gap, many traders would not think of as a gap.
我有很多方法来估算突破会走多远。我把它们称为等距运动预测。我现在没有足够的时间来谈论所有这些方法，但方法有很多。例如，基于突破的高度，基于市场突破的交易区间，有腿1 = 腿2的等距运动。还有基于缺口的等距运动。我对缺口的定义非常广泛。我所说的缺口，许多交易者可能不会认为它是缺口。
Question #5: For a trend trader, what are the difficulties in combining trend analysis with trading rules? What’s the key point?
问题5：对于趋势交易者来说，将趋势分析与交易规则结合有哪些困难？关键点是什么？
Trend trading and rules
趋势交易与规则
In general, most traders should be swing trading. You used the word “trend.” When I think of a trend, I use that term in a very specific way. On any chart, the screen cannot have more than two trends. There can be a trend up and a trend down, or only a trend up or only a trend down. If there is a third trend on the chart, I don’t use the term “trend”; instead, I use the term “swing.” There can be four or five swings on any chart on any timeframe.
总体而言，大多数交易者应该进行波段交易。你使用了“趋势”这个词。当我考虑趋势时，我以非常特定的方式使用这个术语。在任何图表上，屏幕上不能有超过两个趋势。可以有一个上升趋势和一个下降趋势，或者只有一个上升趋势或只有一个下降趋势。如果图表上有第三个趋势，我就不使用“趋势”这个词，而是使用“波段”这个词。在任何时间框架的任何图表上，都可以有四个或五个波段。
If you’re talking about a true trend – in other words, the market starting in the lower left and going to the upper right, or starting in the upper left and going to the lower right, or a chart that has two trends on it – it’s usually pretty clear. Either the market is in a breakout phase or it’s in a very tight channel. If it’s in a breakout, then it has a series of consecutive trend bars up or down. If instead it’s in a very tight channel and you look at the next higher timeframe chart, that tight channel is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
如果你谈论的是真正的趋势——换句话说，市场从左下角开始，走向右上角，或者从左上角开始，走向右下角，或者图表上有两个趋势——通常情况会很清楚。市场要么处于突破阶段，要么处于非常窄的通道中。如果处于突破阶段，则会有连续的一系列趋势K线向上或向下。如果它处于非常窄的通道中，而你查看更高时间框架的图表，那么这个窄通道在更高时间框架的图表上就是一个突破。
For example, if there’s a very tight bull channel on the 5-minute chart, then there’s a breakout on the 15-minute chart. I therefore trade tight channels the same way I trade breakouts. For example, if there’s a very tight bull channel, I know that it is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart. I only want to buy. If there’s a very tight bear channel or if there’s a strong bear breakout, I only want to sell.
例如，如果5分钟图表上有一个非常窄的多头通道，那么在15分钟图表上就会有一个突破。因此，我交易窄通道的方式与交易突破的方式相同。例如，如果有一个非常窄的多头通道，我知道它在更高时间框架的图表上是一个突破。我只想买入。如果有一个非常窄的空头通道，或者有一个强劲的空头突破，我只想卖出。
This is not difficult. There are simple tricks that traders can use to determine if a trend is strong. For example, if the market’s in a channel and you cannot tell if the channel is tight, then you should only buy. If the market’s in a bear channel and the channel is very tight and you cannot tell if it’s broad enough to buy, then only sell. Always assume that if the channel might be tight, only trade in the direction of the trend.
这并不难。交易者可以使用一些简单的技巧来判断趋势是否强劲。例如，如果市场处于通道中，而你无法判断通道是否狭窄，那么你应该只买入。如果市场处于空头通道中，通道非常狭窄，而你无法判断是否足够宽可以买入，那么只卖出。始终假设，如果通道可能狭窄，则只沿趋势方向交易。
A simple way to determine that is just look at the chart from the perspective of a trader trying to do the opposite. For example, if the market is rallying, is there any way that a bear can make money selling? For example, if the bear sells at the prior high, which might’ve been 3 or 4 bars ago, will he make money? If it’s very difficult or impossible for bears to make money, then a channel is tight, and therefore a trader should only look to buy.
判断这个问题的一个简单方法，就是从试图做相反操作的交易者的角度来看图表。例如，如果市场正在上涨，空头有没有办法通过卖出获利？例如，如果空头在之前的高点卖出，比如3或4根K线之前的高点，他能赚钱吗？如果空头很难或不可能赚钱，那么通道就是窄幅的，因此交易者应该只考虑买入。
Question #6: How should we understand your trading concepts, such as a tight stop, early entrance, and second entrance?
问题6：我们应该如何理解你的交易理念，比如紧止损、提前入场和二次入场？
Tight stops, early and second entries
窄止损，早入场和二次入场
A tight stop means that the risk is less. The risk reward ratio is therefore good. That immediately tells you that you will probably lose. If one institution gets good risk/reward, the institution taking the other side of the trade gets a high probability of profit. This is because perfect trades cannot exit. A perfect trade is one where there is a high probability of making a big profit while risking very little. This cannot exit because no institution would take the opposite side. The opposite is a trade with a low probability of a small profit while risking a lot of money. In general, the smaller the risk, the lower the probability of profit. However, there are often several good choices for a stop. The tighter stop will lose more often, but the losses will be small. The wider stops will result in fewer, bigger losses. It does not matter which approach a trader takes as long as his stop is reasonable.
紧止损意味着风险较小。因此风险回报比很好。这立刻告诉你，你很可能会亏损。如果一方机构获得了良好的风险回报比，那么接另一方交易的机构就拥有高概率获利。这是因为完美的交易无法离场。完美交易是指在风险很小的情况下，有很大概率获得大利润。这无法离场，因为没有机构愿意承担相反方向。相反的交易是指在风险很大的情况下，只有低概率获得小利润。一般来说，风险越小，盈利的概率越低。然而，止损往往有几种不错的选择。止损越紧，亏损发生的频率越高，但每次亏损都很小。止损越宽，亏损发生的频率越低，但每次亏损会更大。交易者采取哪种方式并不重要，只要他的止损是合理的。
If a market is in a trading range, traders should look to buy low, sell high, and scalp. In a trading range, the market often falls below support, a prior low, before it reverses up. At the top of the range, it often goes above the top of the range before it reverses down.
如果市场处于交易区间内，交易者应该寻找低买高卖和短线交易的机会。在交易区间内，市场通常会在反转向上之前跌破支撑位（即此前的低点）。在区间顶部，市场通常会在反转向下之前突破区间顶部。
If a leg up looks particularly strong and starts to reverse down, it’s usually better not to take the first entry. It’s usually better to wait for a second entry, like a micro double top. The same is true at the low; if it reverses up but the bear leg was down very strongly, it’s usually better to wait for a second entry. That would have a higher probability. That would also be a micro double bottom.
如果一个上涨腿看起来特别强劲，并开始向下反转，通常最好不要选择第一次入场。通常最好等待第二次入场机会，比如一个微型双顶形态。低点的情况也一样；如果价格向上反转，但空头腿的下跌非常强劲，通常最好等待第二次入场。这样成功的概率会更高。这也会形成一个微型双底形态。
A lot of times traders are not sure where the bottom is or where the top is when they’re trading in either a broad channel or a trading range. In that instance, if they’re willing to scale in – for example, in either a broad bull channel looking to buy a pullback, or in a trading range looking to buy near the bottom – it’s usually better to use a wide stop, trade small, and scale in.
交易者很多时候在宽通道或交易区间内交易时，并不确定底部或顶部在哪里。在这种情况下，如果他们愿意分批建仓——例如，在宽幅多头通道中寻找买入回撤的机会，或在交易区间内寻找接近底部买入的机会——通常最好使用宽止损，轻仓交易，并分批加仓。
The key is knowing where to put the stop. Usually it’s better to put it just beyond some kind of measured move projection below where you’re entering. The stop often has to be further away than what you think is reasonable. If you’re thinking about scaling in, your initial entry has to be very small. The total risk of your first entry plus your second entry has to be within your comfort zone, and that is determined by how far your stop has to be.
关键在于知道如何设置止损。通常最好将其设置在你入场位置下方某个等距运动预测点之外。止损通常需要设置得比你认为合理的距离更远。如果你考虑加仓，那么你的初始入场仓位必须非常小。第一次入场和第二次入场的风险总和必须在你的舒适范围内，这是由你的止损距离决定的。
If you cannot trade small enough to use the appropriate stop and if you cannot handle the emotion of the market trading against you after your first entry, do not take the trade.
如果你无法将仓位控制得足够小以使用适当的止损，或者无法处理市场在你首次入场后反向波动时的情绪，那么就不要进行交易。
I think the important point is when the market is in a broad channel or a trading range, knowing exactly when the bottom of a move or the top of a move is, is difficult. As a result, a lot of traders take what they think might be a reasonable entry, but they’ll use a wide stop and they’re willing to add on more if the market continues before reversing.
我认为关键点在于，当市场处于宽通道或交易区间时，准确判断一波行情的底部或顶部是非常困难的。因此，许多交易者会选择他们认为合理的入场点，但他们会使用宽止损，并且愿意在市场继续波动之前反转时加仓。
However, beginners should not do that. A trader has to be able to use the appropriate stop. They have to be comfortable having the market go against them after they first enter, and they have to be able to add on to the position at the appropriate time. That is a lot to expect from a person starting out. However, experienced traders regularly do that.
然而，初学者不应该这样做。交易者必须能够使用适当的止损。他们必须能够在首次入场后承受市场反向波动，并且必须能够在适当的时间加仓。这对一个刚入门的人来说要求很高。然而，有经验的交易者经常这样做。
Question #7: Could you please talk about your money management in trading? [I’ve already talked a lot about money management.] How much money would you invest at first when you decide to start a trade and take a position? What’s the proportion? When you put on a heavy position, first time, second time or third time, what is the most valuable signal in the system when you decide to increase your position while you are trading? How do you deal with them usually?
问题 7：您能否谈谈您在交易中的资金管理？（我已经谈了很多关于资金管理的内容。）当您决定开始交易并建仓时，您最初会投资多少资金？比例是多少？当您第一次、第二次或第三次建立大仓位时，在您决定加仓时，系统中最有价值的信号是什么？您通常如何处理这些信号？
Position sizing
仓位管理
This is all about position size. I think the important concept is the mathematics of what you are doing. In general, a trader should try to avoid risking more than 2% of his entire account on any one trade. If a trader is planning to scale in – let’s say he’s planning to add on to his position if the market goes against him – the combined risk if his stop is hit has to be 2% or less of his entire account size. If he cannot risk less than 2% of his account size, he should not take the trade – or he has to trade a smaller position.
这完全是关于仓位大小。我认为重要的概念是你所做事情的数学原理。一般来说，交易者应尽量避免在任何一笔交易中承担超过其账户总额 2% 的风险。如果交易者计划加仓——比如说，如果市场反向波动，他计划增加仓位——那么当止损被触发时，总风险必须占其账户总额的 2% 或更少。如果他无法承担低于账户总额 2% 的风险，那么他不应该进行交易——或者他必须交易更小的仓位。
I sometimes take a bigger position when I’m extremely confident of a move. Initially, if I’m taking a bigger position, I’m taking it as my first entry. Usually when I take a bigger position, I’m not planning to add on. I’m taking it usually because it’s already a second or third entry after the first or second has failed but were very strong signals. I might not have taken the earlier entry because I often wait for a 2nd or 3rd entry because I want a higher probability of profit.
当我对行情走势极有信心时，有时会加大仓位。如果我一开始就加大仓位，那就是我的首次入场。通常当我加大仓位时，我并不打算继续加仓。我这样做通常是因为这是第二次或第三次入场，前一两次虽然失败了，但信号非常强劲。我可能没有执行之前的入场，因为我通常会等待第二或第三次入场，因为我希望获得更高的获利概率。
For example, if I’m looking to sell, I want to see the market reverse down two or three times at very important resistance levels – usually a combination of several types of resistance – and I want to see a lot of signs of selling pressure before I take the trade. Additionally, I want a strong sell signal bar, and I need good targets below. There has to be a magnet below that will pull the market down.
例如，如果我打算卖出，我希望看到市场在非常重要的阻力位（通常是几种阻力类型的组合）上两次或三次反转下跌，并且我希望在入场前看到大量卖压的迹象。此外，我需要一个强劲的卖出信号K线，并且下方需要有良好的目标位。下方必须有一个磁铁，将市场吸引下去。
Once I’m in the trade, I manage it like any other trade, except that if I’m trading a big position, I am not planning on scaling in. That usually means that I’m going to be putting a stop just beyond my signal bar. For example, if I’m taking a second or third entry short, I’m going to place my protective stop just above the high of my signal bar.
一旦我入场交易，我会像管理其他交易一样管理它，但如果我交易的是大仓位，我不打算分批加仓。这通常意味着我会在信号K线之外设置止损。例如，如果我进行第二次或第三次做空入场，我会在信号K线的高点上方设置保护性止损。
I hope that you found this helpful. I’m Al Brooks. Thank you for listening.
希望你觉得这很有帮助。我是 Al Brooks。感谢您的聆听。