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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/china-futures-daily-questions-answers-2/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:10
China Futures Daily Q&A: Part 2 – Q8 to Q12
中国期货日报问答：第二部分——问题8至12
Al Brooks leaves for his China lecturing trip later today. Sadly, the exact schedule is still not finalized and details will be published as soon as available for anyone interested in joining Al.
Al Brooks 今天晚些时候将启程前往中国进行演讲之旅。遗憾的是，具体日程尚未最终确定，详情将在确定后尽快公布，供有兴趣参加的学员参考。
Here is the second part (Q8 – Q12) of Al’s China Futures Daily News website question and answers, with audio recording and transcript below.
以下是 Al 在中国期货日报网站上问答的第二部分（问题8至12），附有音频录音和文字记录。
Audio recording – Questions 8 to 12
音频录音——问题8至12
Audio duration: 23min 24sec
音频时长：23分24秒
Question #8: When traders have a profitable position, how does a trader keep a good mental attitude? Some traders are always eager to close a position to lock in the profits. How do you think about this? What mental attitude or technical techniques/skills do you have, when to close a profitable position with maximum profit?
问题8：当交易者持有盈利头寸时，如何保持良好的心理状态？有些交易者总是急于平仓以锁定利润。你对此有何看法？当以最大收益平仓盈利头寸时，你有哪些心理态度或技术技巧/技能？
Keeping good mental attitude
保持良好的心理状态
Going into any trade, I’m always thinking about whether I’m going to be taking a scalp or a swing profit. If I’m taking a scalp, it’s simple: I know what my profit target is going into the trade, and if it hits my target, I take my quick profit and exit. If I’m taking a swing trade, my intention is to hold on for a minimum profit of at least two times my actual risk.
在进行任何交易之前，我总是考虑我是否要进行短线交易还是波段交易以获取利润。如果我进行短线交易，那就很简单：我在入场前就知道我的盈利目标是什么，如果达到目标，我就会迅速获利并离场。如果我进行波段交易，我的目标是至少持有头寸以获得相当于实际风险两倍的最低利润。
I distinguish actual risk from initial risk because there’s a mathematical difference between the two. For example, if I’m buying and I put my stop below my signal bar, that is my initial risk. But if the market only pulls back 2 or 3 ticks after I enter the trade and then strongly rallies in my direction, my actual risk may have only been 3 or 4 ticks.
我将实际风险与初始风险区分开来，因为两者在数学上有区别。例如，如果我买入并把止损设置在信号K线下方，那就是我的初始风险。但如果市场在我入场后只回撤了2或3个点，然后强势朝我预期的方向反弹，那么我的实际风险可能只有3或4个点。
The mathematics of all trading is based upon actual risk. A trader should always go for a reward that is equal to at least two times his actual risk. However, that is the minimum goal. The minimum goal is rarely the best goal. In general, when I’m swing trading, I stay in the trade until the trade is no longer valid – for example, if there’s a signal in the opposite direction or I’m at the end of the trading session.
所有交易的数学基础都基于实际风险。交易者应该始终追求至少是实际风险两倍的回报。然而，这只是最低目标。最低目标很少是最好的目标。一般来说，当我进行波段交易时，我会一直持有头寸，直到交易不再有效——例如，如果有相反方向的信号出现，或者我已经到了交易时段的末尾。
If a trade goes two, three, four times the actual risk, I usually take at least partial profits. A lot of beginners lose frequently. When they finally have a win, they’re so afraid of watching it turn into another loss, they take very quick profits. And that is unfortunate. If a trader has a low winning percentage, then he needs rewards that are much bigger than the risk.
如果一笔交易的收益达到实际风险的两倍、三倍或四倍，我通常会至少部分获利了结。许多初学者经常亏损。当他们终于获得一次胜利时，他们非常害怕看到它变成另一次亏损，因此他们会非常迅速地获利了结。这很遗憾。如果交易者的胜率较低，那么他需要的回报就必须远大于风险。
If you think about the trader’s equation, it’s a balance between risk-reward and probability. If you lose most of the time, then your probability of success is small. The only way you can trade profitability then is if your reward is much bigger than your risk. You need a very high, a very strong risk-reward ratio. That means you need a very big reward.
如果你考虑交易者的方程式，它是在风险回报和概率之间的平衡。如果你大多数时候都在亏损，那么你的成功概率就很小。在这种情况下，你唯一能盈利的方法就是让你的回报远大于你的风险。你需要一个非常高、非常强的风险回报比。这意味着你需要一个非常大的回报。
I understand that if a trader loses most of the time, it’s natural to panic and be so happy at any small reward that you grab that reward. However, that is scalping. If you lose most of the time, you cannot scalp. A scalper needs a very high probability to be profitable. A good scalper is going to win 70%, 80%, or 90% of the trades. But remember, there’s a trade-off: the higher the probability of success, the worse the risk-reward ratio. In general, a good scalper is going to win 70%, 80%, or 90% of the time. However, his risk-reward ratio is lousy. His reward is usually very small and his risk is relatively big.
我明白，如果交易者大多数时候都在亏损，那么自然会感到恐慌，并对任何小小的回报感到非常高兴，从而抓住那份回报。然而，这就是剥头皮交易。如果你大多数时候都在亏损，你就不能进行剥头皮交易。剥头皮交易者需要非常高的概率才能盈利。一个好的剥头皮交易者会在70%、80%或90%的交易中获胜。但请记住，这有一个权衡：成功概率越高，风险回报比就越差。一般来说，一个好的剥头皮交易者会在70%、80%或90%的时间内获胜。然而，他的风险回报比很差。他的回报通常非常小，而他的风险相对较大。
A beginner cannot win 80% or 90% of the time; therefore, a beginner cannot scalp. That means a beginner cannot take a small profit. If a beginner is going to be losing most of the time, he needs a very strong risk-reward ratio. That means he needs a very big profit. That means he has to stay in the trade until the premise of the trend is no longer valid.
初学者无法在80%或90%的时间内获胜；因此，初学者不能进行剥头皮交易。这意味着初学者不能获得小额利润。如果初学者大多数时候都在亏损，那么他需要一个非常强的风险回报比。这意味着他需要非常大的利润。这意味着他必须一直持有头寸，直到趋势的前提不再有效。
For many traders, that is emotionally difficult to do. The key to success is trading the “I don’t care” size. That means you have to trade so small that you really do not care if you lose money. I understand the argument that if you trade so small that you do not care if you lose money, you’ll never get rich; however, you will get practice doing the right thing. Over time, you can then increase your position size, and at some point you might be surprised to find that you’re making an incredible amount of money.
对许多交易者来说，这在情绪上很难做到。成功的关键在于交易“无所谓”的仓位大小。这意味着你必须交易得非常小，以至于你真的不会在意亏损。我理解这样的观点：如果你交易得非常小，以至于不在乎亏损，你永远不会变富；然而，你会练习做正确的事情。随着时间的推移，你可以增加仓位规模，有一天你可能会惊讶地发现自己赚了很多钱。
Question #9: Is trend trading always effective anywhere? What will the technique analysis be in the future, in your opinion?
问题9：趋势交易在任何地方都有效吗？你认为未来的技术分析会是什么样子？
Trend trading
趋势交易
Markets are the same now as they were 100 years ago, 200 years ago. I’ve looked at a lot of charts from 100 years ago and longer, and if I remove the date at the bottom of the chart and the price scale at the right of the chart, I cannot tell whether the chart is a weekly chart from 1910 or a 5-minute chart from 2017.
市场现在和100年前、200年前一样。我看过很多100年前甚至更早的图表，如果我去掉图表底部的日期和右侧的价格刻度，我无法判断图表是1910年的周线图还是2017年的5分钟图。
Why is that? It’s because markets move based upon rational human behavior. Markets are controlled by genetics . As long as we are the same species, we will behave the same. Trading is just a reflection of rational human behavior.
为什么会这样？因为市场的走势是基于人类理性行为的。市场受基因控制。只要我们是同一个物种，我们的行为就会相同。交易只是人类理性行为的反映。
Most of the American markets are dominated by computer algorithms, yet the markets trade the same as they did 20 years ago when there were no computers and 100 years ago when there were no computers.
大多数美国市场由计算机算法主导，但市场的交易方式与20年前没有计算机时和100年前没有计算机时相同。
Why is that? It’s because the computers are doing what is rational. Well, good traders have been doing what is rational for hundreds of years. The difference is computers just do these things faster. The result is they’re doing the same thing as excellent traders have been doing forever, and therefore the charts look the same.
为什么会这样？因为计算机在做理性的事情。优秀的交易者几百年来一直在做理性的事情。区别在于计算机做这些事情更快。结果是，它们在做与优秀交易者永远在做的事情相同的东西，因此图表看起来是一样的。
The result is that trading will always be the same going forward. The computers will not change things. All they do is trade faster, and that makes a difference if you’re trying to make a trade that lasts 1000th of a second and trying to make one penny in a stock. However, that has no bearing on what I do. I do day trade and I sometimes hold a trade for as short as 10 or 20 seconds, but most of my trades are for 5 minutes to an hour. Those computers have no effect on what I am doing.
结果是，未来的交易将永远保持不变。计算机不会改变任何事情。它们只会交易得更快，这对那些试图在千分之一秒内完成交易并从股票中赚取一分钱的人来说有影响。然而，这对我所做的事情没有影响。我做日内交易，有时会持仓10秒或20秒，但大多数交易时间是5分钟到1小时。这些计算机对我所做的事情没有影响。
Question #10: Will you please forecast the macro situation of the investment market in the future? What’s your opinion about the trend of gold and oil?
问题10：您能否预测未来投资市场的宏观形势？您对黄金和原油的趋势有何看法？
Market and commodities forecast
市场与商品预测
I talk about this regularly in my chat room and on my website. It’s interesting. Let me just say one thing that you may not have considered. That is that if you look at any market – any market, even gold, crude oil – and you look at a chart that goes back 100 years, the price today is more expensive than it was 100 years ago. That’s especially true in the stock market. The price today is hundreds of times greater than it was 100 years ago, 150 years ago.
我在聊天室和我的网站上经常谈到这一点。这很有趣。我想说一件你可能没有考虑到的事：如果你看任何市场——哪怕是黄金、原油——并观察回溯100年的价格图表，今天的价格都比100年前高。这一点在股市尤为明显：今天的价格是100年前甚至150年前的数百倍。
How can that be? A lot of traders believe trading is a zero sum game, that every dollar that I make is a dollar that somebody else loses. That is flawed logic. There’s a fundamental flaw to that. That might be true over the next 5 minutes or 10 minutes, but it’s not true over the next 5 years or 10 years. Look at the price of the Hang Seng index today versus 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Look at the price of the stock market today versus 10 years ago or 20 years ago.
这怎么可能呢？许多交易者认为交易是零和游戏，我赚的每一美元都是别人亏损的钱。这种逻辑是有缺陷的。这存在一个根本性的错误。这在接下来的5分钟或10分钟内可能是正确的，但对于接下来的5年或10年来说，这并不正确。看看恒生指数今天的价格与10年前或20年前相比。看看今天股市的价格与10年前或20年前相比。
For example, the S&P 500 today is about 2,000. Back in 2009, it was at 700. So right now it’s about three times greater than it was just 10 years ago, not even 10 years ago. Now why is that? It’s because the market is not a zero sum game.
举个例子，今天的标普500指数大约是2000点。而在2009年，它只有700点。所以现在它比仅仅10年前，甚至不到10年前，高出大约三倍。为什么会这样？因为市场不是一个零和游戏。
The world is creating more wealth. So it’s not a zero sum game. There’s more money being made. There are more people in the world, and more people means more people earning money. The total GDP of the world is increasing. The productivity of all of the people in the world is increasing. Technology is allowing people to make more money per hour all over the planet. All of this means that the total wealth of the world is increasing. That means there are more dollars to buy stocks. It also means that people who are investing have more opportunity to make money.
世界正在创造更多财富，所以这不是零和游戏。有人在赚更多的钱。世界上有更多的人，而更多的人意味着更多人在赚钱。全球GDP在不断增长。全世界所有人的生产力都在提升。科技让地球上的每个人每小时都能赚到更多的钱。这一切都意味着世界的总财富在增加。也就是说，有更多的美元可以用来买股票。这也意味着，那些正在投资的人有更多的机会赚钱。
Trading is not a zero sum game. The world is getting richer. As long as the population is increasing, you’re creating more producers, more people contributing to the gross national product of every country. Technology is also making people more productive.
交易不是一个零和游戏。世界正在变得更加富有。只要人口在增长，你就是在创造更多的生产者，更多的人为每个国家的国民生产总值做出贡献。技术也让人们的生产力更高。
The result is all markets are in a bull market over the course of years. No matter how bad the market is, how bad a bear market is, the market’s always going to be more expensive 5 years in the future, and that is because the total net worth of the world is increasing.
结果是，所有市场在数年内都处于多头市场中。无论市场有多糟糕，空头市场有多严重，市场在未来五年内总是会变得更昂贵，这是因为世界总净值在不断增加。
What do I think the stock market will do 10 years from now, 20 years from now? I think it’s going to be higher. Thirty years from now, it’s going to be higher. I’ve been trading for 30 years. I started trading back in 1987, and the market is much, much higher than it was back then. Back then I remember hearing a lot of people on television talking about how the stock market was going to go down to zero. It fell to about 200, and now it’s 2,000, so it’s 10 times richer than it was back then.
我认为股市在10年后、20年后会怎么样？我认为它会更高。30年后，它会更高。我已经交易了30年。我从1987年开始交易，当时的市场比现在低得多。我记得当时在电视上听到很多人说股市会跌到零。它跌到了大约200点，而现在是2000点，所以它比那时要富裕10倍。
Do I think the stock market is going up in the future? Of course. What do I think is going to happen over the next few years? I think the United States bond market has put in the high for the next 20 years. I think the sell-off over the past year is overdone. I think the result is the bond market is going to rally over the next several months. However, I think it’s never going to go back to the price it was last year, and I think it’s going to continue to go down over the course of the next 20 years. Sideways to down for the next 20 years.
我认为未来股市会上涨吗？当然会。我认为未来几年会发生什么？我认为美国债券市场已经为未来20年确定了高点。我认为过去一年的抛售已经过度。我认为结果是债券市场将在未来几个月出现反弹。不过，我认为它永远不会回到去年的价格，我认为它将在未来20年持续下行。未来20年将横盘偏下。
That means interest rates are going to rise. A lot of traders in the United States like to have some of their money in relatively safe investments. Traders have not been putting money in certificates of deposits (CDs) because the rate of return has been so small. If interest rates go up – which I believe they will – traders will discover that the rate of return from savings accounts and certificates of deposits (CDs) will be acceptable, and they’ll begin to transfer money from stocks into safe investments that have good returns.
这意味着利率将上升。美国许多交易者喜欢把部分资金放在相对安全的投资里。由于收益率极低，交易者近年来很少把钱存入定期存款（CDs）。如果利率上升——我相信会发生——交易者会发现储蓄账户和定期存款（CDs）的收益率变得可以接受，于是他们会开始把股票中的资金转移到收益较好的安全投资中。
As a result, as the bond market goes down and interest rates go up, the stock market will be pressured to go down. Therefore, what do I think is going to happen to the stock market over the next several years? I think the stock market can go a little higher, but I do not think it’s going to go a lot higher over the next several years.
因此，随着债券市场下跌和利率上升，股市将面临下行压力。那么，我认为未来几年股市会发生什么情况？我认为股市可能会略有上涨，但我不认为未来几年会大幅上涨。
I think the S&P 500, for example, had a huge buy climax over the past year. It’s at measured move targets based upon the monthly chart. So it might go up another 3% or 4% from here over the next year or so; however, I think it’s going to fall at least 10% or 15% over the next 2 or 3 years, and over the next 4 or 5 years I think it’s probably going to fall 30% or 40%.
我认为标普500指数在过去一年中出现了巨大的买入高潮。从月线图来看，它已经达到了等距运动的目标位。因此，未来一年左右，它可能从这里再上涨3%或4%；然而，我认为它在未来2到3年内至少会下跌10%或15%，而在未来4到5年内，我认为它可能会下跌30%或40%。
That means that the upside over the next few years is small relative to the downside. So maybe over the next few years it’ll go up 3% or 4% or 5%, but I think it’s going to fall 10% within the next couple of years and probably 20% or 30% over the next 5 years. Yet, since it always has rallied 3 – 5 years after even the worst selloffs, it will be higher again 3 – 5 years after any selloff.
这意味着未来几年的上涨空间相对于下跌空间来说很小。所以，未来几年它可能会上涨 3%、4% 或 5%，但我认为它在未来几年内会下跌 10%，甚至在未来 5 年内可能下跌 20% 或 30%。然而，由于它总是在最严重的抛售后 3-5 年内反弹，任何抛售后 3-5 年它又会再次上涨。
Talking about gold and crude oil, gold had a huge rally and a big, big buy climax that ended in 2011. It’s given back about half of that. Very often when there’s a huge buy climax like that, the market pulls back about 50% and then goes sideways for a long, long time. That’s what gold has been doing for the past 5 years. It’s now deciding whether it’s going to go back up to the 2011 highs or all the way down to the 2008 lows.
说到黄金和原油，黄金在2011年出现了大幅上涨和巨大的买入高潮，之后回吐了大约一半的涨幅。当出现如此巨大的买入高潮时，市场通常会回撤约50%，然后长期横盘整理。这就是黄金在过去5年里的走势。它现在正在决定是回到2011年的高点，还是跌至2008年的低点。
I think it’s slightly more likely that it’s going to go up than it is that it will go down, but there’s no compelling evidence that it’s going to go up anytime soon. It’s been in a trading range for 5 years. It could easily be in a trading range for another few years. Yes, it rallied strongly at the beginning of 2016, but only up to the top of the channel that began after the sell-off in 2013. To me it looks like it’s in the middle of a trading range, deciding whether it’s going to go back up to the 2011 highs or continue sideways indefinitely. To me there’s no compelling reason to buy gold right here, other than to trade the swings within the $400 range. Between 1,100 and 1,500 or so.
我认为它上涨的可能性略高于下跌，但目前没有强有力的证据表明它会在短期内上涨。它已经横盘整理了5年。它很可能再横盘整理几年。是的，它在2016年初强劲反弹，但只涨到了2013年抛售后开始的通道顶部。在我看来，它似乎处于交易区间的中间位置，正在决定是回到2011年的高点，还是继续无限期地横盘整理。在我看来，除了在400美元区间内交易波段外，目前没有令人信服的理由买入黄金。区间大约在1,100到1,500之间。
Crude oil? Crude oil has had two huge moves down from the highs in 2008. It sold off strongly into 2009, went sideways for about 6 years, and then had another leg down in 2014. The sell-off was climactic, and the market’s probably going to be sideways here. It might get back up to the $70 or $80 level at some point in the next few years, but I think there’s no evidence that it’s going to get back up to $100 anytime soon. It probably will have to go sideways for years – 2 years, 5 years, I don’t know. It probably needs several years of sideways move to build a base before it can get back up to that level, if it ever gets back up to that level.
原油？原油从2008年的高点经历了两次大幅下跌。它在2009年强劲下跌，横盘整理了约6年，然后在2014年再次下跌。抛售是高潮式的，市场可能会在这里横盘整理。它可能在未来几年某个时候回到70美元或80美元的水平，但我认为没有证据表明它会在短期内回到100美元。它可能需要横盘整理多年——2年、5年，我不知道。如果它最终能回到那个水平，它可能需要几年的横盘整理来建立基础，然后才能重新回到那个水平。
Question #11: What do you think about the Chinese financial markets?
问题11：你对中国金融市场有何看法？
The Chinese financial markets
中国金融市场
I frankly wish that I was living in China. I say that – obviously I’m very happy where I am, but from a trader’s perspective, I think the Chinese financial markets are excellent. The GDP is very high. I think it’s like 7% right now. It’s low for China over the past 10 years, but based upon American standards, a GDP of 7% is extremely high.
坦率地说，我希望我能住在中国。我这么说——显然我对我现在的生活很满意，但从交易者的角度来看，我认为中国金融市场非常优秀。GDP非常高，我认为目前是7%左右。这对于中国来说，在过去10年里是较低的，但根据美国标准，7%的GDP是极高的。
The result is a lot of things are going up. I don’t care if things go up or down because I can always sell and make money when they go down. However, I’m interested in big moves, and the Chinese market moves a lot – which is good for a trader. That’s pretty much the only difference between the Chinese market and the American market.
结果是很多东西都在上涨。我不在乎东西是涨还是跌，因为当它们下跌时，我总是可以卖出并赚钱。然而，我对大幅波动感兴趣，而中国市场波动很大——这对交易者来说是好事。这几乎是中国市场和美国市场的唯一区别。
I’ve looked a lot at Chinese stocks in the Hang Seng index, especially on the 5-minute charts. If I remove the price and time scales on the charts, they look just like American markets. They’re very good trading markets. I wish the yuan was trading freely in the Forex markets because it probably would be the most popular market for Forex crosses. I think it would be fantastic to trade. I assume at some point it will be available, it will trade freely and traders will be able to trade it.
我研究了恒生指数中的许多中国股票，尤其是5分钟图表。如果我把图表上的价格和时间刻度去掉，它们看起来就和美国市场一样。它们是非常好的交易市场。我希望人民币能在外汇市场自由交易，因为它可能会成为外汇交叉盘中最受欢迎的市场。我认为交易它会很棒。我假设在某个时候它会可用，会自由交易，交易者将能够交易它。
But for trading as a day trader, I think the Chinese markets are excellent, and if I was a young person living in China, I would be really excited about the prospects for making money as a trader.
但对于日内交易者来说，我认为中国市场非常好，如果我是一个生活在中国的年轻人，我会对作为交易者赚钱的前景感到非常兴奋。
Question #12: Can you please give some suggestions to traders who are looking for the trading way of themselves?
问题12：你能否给那些正在寻找自己交易方式的交易者一些建议？
Finding your trading self
寻找你的交易自我
I think the most important suggestion is Laertes’ advice to Polonius in Hamlet: “ To thine own self be true .”
我认为最重要的建议是《哈姆雷特》中拉欧提斯对波洛纽斯的忠告：对自己的本心保持真诚。
I think it’s really important to develop confidence in your ability to analyze markets, and that takes a lot of time. You have to study charts a lot.
我认为培养对自己分析市场能力的信心非常重要，这需要大量时间。你必须多研究图表。
You also have to be very objective and humble. I think that is a really important quality that traders – that really good traders – have. I’ve received a lot of emails from students who have told me that they’re consistently making money, and what do they do to make more money? My answer is always the same: Stay humble. Don’t try to do more than what you’re doing. Just try to do better what you’re doing.
你还必须非常客观和谦逊。我认为这是交易者——那些真正优秀的交易者——所具备的一项非常重要的品质。我收到过很多学生的邮件，他们告诉我他们一直在赚钱，但他们该如何赚更多的钱？我的回答总是相同的：保持谦逊。不要试图做比你现在更多的事情。只需努力把你正在做的事情做得更好。
I think the most important thing for any trader to become profitable is to get rid of losses. Most traders starting out realize that, “Hey, I won over here, and then I won again over here, yet I lost over there and I lost on this other trade. I lost money.” If they look at their performance, what they’ll discover is they probably won enough to begin to make a really good living as a trader – if they could get rid of those losses.
我认为任何交易者要想实现盈利，最重要的是摆脱亏损。大多数刚入行的交易者都会意识到：“嘿，我在这里赢了，在那里又赢了，但我在那里亏了，在另一笔交易中又亏了。我亏钱了。”如果他们回顾自己的表现，就会发现他们可能已经赢了足够的钱，可以开始过上非常好的交易生活——如果他们能摆脱那些亏损的话。
I think that is really important: not taking bad trades, and if you’re in a trade that looks bad, getting out early. A lot of times traders will hold onto bad trades far too long, hoping that the market will turn around. A really good trader, when they make a mistake, they say, “Huh… I made a mistake. I’m wrong,” and they just take the loss.
我认为这非常重要：不要做坏交易，如果你处于一个看起来不好的交易中，要尽早退出。很多时候，交易者会坚持坏交易太久，希望市场会反转。一个非常好的交易者，当他们犯错时，他们会说：“哦……我犯错了。我错了，”然后他们就接受亏损。
That’s really, really important. Whenever your premise is not valid anymore, for whatever reason – if you took a trade and you decide that you made a mistake, or if you took a trade and the market quickly does the opposite – get out. Just get out. Whenever your premise is no longer valid, never hope.
这真的非常重要。无论何时，如果你的假设不再有效，无论原因如何——如果你做了交易并决定自己犯了错，或者如果你做了交易而市场迅速反向运行——就退出。直接退出。无论何时你的假设不再有效，都不要抱有希望。
People are naturally hopeful. I think that is an evolutionary thing. Thousands of years ago, if you’re trying to feed your family and you’re out looking to kill a deer for some meat and you don’t find anything and you just quit – you do that often enough, you and your family will starve, and your genes will disappear from the gene pool. However, if you’re always hopeful that you’re going to find a deer and you keep hunting until you get that deer, you and your family will have food and you will survive. Those hopeful genes will survive and get passed on to future generations.
人天生就有希望。我认为这是一种进化现象。几千年前，如果你在试图养活家人，出去打猎找鹿肉，但找不到任何东西就放弃——如果你经常这样做，你和你的家人就会挨饿，你的基因就会从基因库中消失。然而，如果你总是抱有希望，相信自己会找到鹿，并一直狩猎直到捕获那只鹿，你和你的家人就会有食物并生存下来。那些充满希望的基因会生存下来，并传给后代。
There are all kinds of examples of that. Being hopeful is a quality that is genetically advantageous. However, it’s a big problem for traders because they often will take a trade, it goes against them, and they stay in the trade hoping that the trade will suddenly go their way and they’ll end up making money or avoid a loss. That’s a terrible problem for traders. Being hopeful is a very bad thing for traders. Being objective is very important.
这样的例子有很多。抱有希望是一种在遗传上占优势的品质。然而，这对交易者来说是一个大问题，因为他们经常会做一笔交易，结果交易方向与他们预期相反，但他们仍然坚持交易，希望交易会突然朝着他们的方向发展，最终赚钱或避免亏损。这对交易者来说是一个可怕的问题。抱有希望对交易者来说是非常不好的事情。保持客观性非常重要。
I talked about the importance of trading the “I don’t care” size. That is just very, very true. You have to trade objectively, and the only way you can do that is if you really do not care if you lose money. That means that your losses have to be small. You have to trade small enough so that if you lose, you will not be upset, and when you have another signal you can go ahead and take that signal.
我谈到了交易“无所谓”规模的重要性。这确实非常正确。你必须客观地交易，而唯一能做到这一点的方法就是你真的无所谓是否亏钱。这意味着你的亏损必须很小。你必须交易得足够小，这样即使亏损，你也不会感到沮丧，当你有另一个信号时，你可以继续执行该信号。
That’s why I think it’s very important to trade so small that you do not care if you lose. You need to stay objective. If you decide that your premise is no longer viable, you get out.
这就是为什么我认为交易得非常小，以至于你不在乎是否亏损，是非常重要的原因。你需要保持客观。如果你决定你的假设不再可行，就退出。
Another, I think, very important thing that traders have to do is develop confidence in their ability to make decisions. If some trader on television says that a stock is going up or that gold is going up and you have to buy, do not buy. The key to making money is a combination of an appropriate entry and management. That guy on television is not going to be there to help you manage the trade.
我认为，交易者需要做的另一件非常重要的事情，就是培养对自己决策能力的信心。如果某个电视上的交易者说某只股票会上涨，或者黄金会上涨，你必须买入，那么不要买入。赚钱的关键是合理的入场和管理相结合。那个电视上的人不会在那里帮你管理交易。
I already told you that 90% of the time, a trader can make money buying or selling if he manages the trade correctly. If some guy on television says to buy, that doesn’t tell you anything because you already know you can make money buying or selling at any time. The key is money management. That person on television is not telling you what to do tomorrow or next week or the week after. Unless you have that other information, you will lose money.
我已经告诉过你，90%的情况下，如果交易者正确地管理交易，他可以通过买入或卖出赚钱。如果电视上的某个人说要买入，这对你没有任何意义，因为你已经知道，你可以在任何时候通过买入或卖出赚钱。关键是资金管理。电视上的那个人并没有告诉你明天、下周或下下周该做什么。除非你有其他信息，否则你会亏钱。
The key to trading is managing your trades appropriately. You have to learn to spot a reasonable setup. You then have to decide where your stop should be. You then have to plan on what is a reasonable profit target, and then you have to stay objective and you have to follow your rules. As long as your premise is still valid, you stay in your position. If the market does something that makes you think your premise is no longer valid, you have to get out. It sounds simple, and it is simple, but it’s difficult to do. And that is one of the keys to trading.
交易的关键在于合理地管理你的交易。你必须学会识别合理的交易机会。然后你必须决定你的止损点应该在哪里。然后你必须计划一个合理的盈利目标，然后你必须保持客观，遵循你的规则。只要你的假设仍然有效，你就继续持有你的头寸。如果市场发生了一些让你认为你的假设不再有效的事情，你就必须退出。这听起来很简单，实际上也很简单，但做起来却很难。这就是交易的关键之一。
I got an email this past week that I get from traders every now and then. It goes something like this: “Al, thank you for teaching me how to trade. I now consistently make money. I no longer can remember why it was for years that I was losing money. I look at the charts and I don’t see how I can lose money. I cannot imagine what I was doing for all those years when I was losing money. Now when I trade, I only see profitable ways to trade.”
我上周收到了一封邮件，这是我偶尔会从交易者那里收到的邮件。内容大致如下：“Al，感谢你教我如何交易。我现在可以持续盈利了。我已经记不清为什么我过去几年一直在亏钱了。我看着图表，我不明白我怎么会亏钱。我无法想象我在亏钱的那些年里都在做什么。现在当我交易时，我只看到盈利的交易方式。”
That’s really interesting. When a trader is starting out, first year or two or three, he’s losing money and he doesn’t understand how to get consistently profitable. After he’s traded consistently profitable for several years, it’s hard for him to imagine all the mistakes that he was making that prevented him from being profitable just a few years earlier.
这真的很有趣。当一个交易者刚开始交易时，第一年、第二年或第三年，他会亏钱，他不明白如何持续盈利。当他持续盈利了几年之后，他很难想象自己之前犯了多少错误，这些错误在几年前阻止了他盈利。
That is, I think, the key turning point for every trader. You have to move into consistent profitability. It’s not a matter of getting lucky and it’s not a matter of suddenly getting one or two big trades. It’s a matter of consistently doing the right thing and consistently making good money, never worrying about making a huge amount of money.
我认为，这是每个交易者的关键转折点。你必须实现持续盈利。这不是运气的问题，也不是突然获得一两笔大交易的问题。这是持续做正确的事情，持续赚取可观的利润，从不担心赚取巨额利润的问题。
When I’m trading, my 1st goal is never to make money. My 1st goal is always to do the right thing. To get into the trade, to get out of the trade, manage the trade correctly. That’s all I think about. Did I do what is right? Obviously, I want to make money, and obviously I want to make a lot of money, but I never think about that. All I think about is, “Am I doing what is right?” If my answer is yes, then I know I’ll make money, and I know I’ll make a lot of money.
当我交易时，我的首要目标从来不是赚钱。我的首要目标始终是做正确的事情。进入交易，退出交易，正确地管理交易。这就是我所想的全部。我做的事情是对的吗？显然，我想赚钱，而且我想赚很多钱，但我从不考虑这些。我只考虑一件事：“我做的事情是对的吗？”如果我的答案是肯定的，那么我知道我会赚钱，而且我知道我会赚很多钱。
I hope that you found this helpful. I’m Al Brooks. Thank you for listening.
希望你觉得这很有帮助。我是 Al Brooks。感谢你的聆听。