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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/cognitive-dissonance-trading/ 生成时间: 2026-09-01 15:28
Cognitive dissonance or bias when trading BPA trading room Q&A: January 27, 2016
2016年1月27日BPA交易室问答：交易中的认知失调或偏见
Question: Often, especially in a trading range, it always seems like the current leg is about to reverse. Sometimes I have a hard time imagining the leg will continue. Do you ever struggle with this kind of cognitive bias? Audio duration: 2min 00sec
问题：经常会出现这样的情况，特别是在交易区间内，当前腿似乎总是即将反转。有时我很难想象这条腿会继续下去。你是否也遇到过这种认知偏差的困扰？音频时长：2分00秒
Being stupid, not smart!
要傻，不要聪明！
No! I really do try to be stupid when I trade. Being smart sometimes is a disadvantage because, it allows you to imagine what might happen — even though it’s unlikely.
不！我在交易时真的会努力让自己变得“愚蠢”。 有时候聪明反而是一种劣势，因为它会让你去想象可能发生的事情——即使这种可能性很小。
So you get caught up spending time thinking that “What if this? What if that?” Instead of saying, “Eh, that’s probably not going to happen,” and then just taking trades.
所以你会陷入这样的情况：花时间思考“如果这样呢？如果那样呢？”而不是说“呃，这可能不会发生”，然后直接进行交易。
Learn to be humble
学会谦逊
So years ago, you know, I used to struggle with everything. I’d see so much and I’d just get analysis paralysis. Always try to think too much. I came to the conclusion that it was a defense mechanism, that it was not so much me being a really smart guy, trying to use all my weapons in the fight against everybody else as it was me being afraid to take a trade . I had to get over it and now I’m much more humble — not with you, not with my family, not with my friends. But with the market I’m much more humble. I never get committed to anything. I just assume that no matter how bullish, how bearish the market looks, it’s no more than a 40 percent chance that the opposite — well, let me rephrase that — no matter how good one direction looks, there’s still a 40 percent chance it can do the exact opposite and it can do it very strongly.
多年前，我曾一度在所有事情上都感到挣扎。我看到太多东西，却陷入了分析瘫痪。总是试图想得太多。我得出结论，这是一种防御机制，不是因为我是一个非常聪明的人，试图在对抗所有人时使用我的所有武器，而是因为我害怕进行交易。我必须克服这一点，现在我变得更加谦逊了——不是对你，不是对我的家人，不是对我的朋友，而是对市场。我从不对任何事情做出承诺。我只是假设，无论市场看起来多么多头、多么空头，它反向运动的概率都不超过40%——让我重新表述一下——无论一个方向看起来多么好，它仍有40%的概率会做完全相反的事情，而且可能会非常强烈地这样做。
Always assume you can be wrong
永远要假设自己可能是错的
So that’s kind of my crutch as far as cognitive dissonance . When I say I respect the market, what I’m saying is: No matter how bullish I am, I still think I’m going to be wrong 40 percent of the time. A lot of days, I’m wrong zero percent of the time. But that’s how I look at it. I always assume that I could be wrong 40 percent of the time.
所以，这就是我应对认知失调的拐杖。当我说我尊重市场时，我的意思是：无论我有多么看多，我仍然认为我有40%的时间会犯错。很多时候，我一天都没有犯错。但我就是这样看待问题的。我总是假设我可能有40%的时间会犯错。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息