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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/countertrend-trading/ 生成时间: 2026-09-03 23:20
Countertrend trading wiped out winners! BPA trading room Q&A: June 16, 2016
逆势交易让赢家血本无归！BPA交易室问答：2016年6月16日
Question: I bought the 14 close, okay, and took a 16-point swing but decided to keep trading and got short many, many times and wiped out significantly more than I made up to that point. Is there anything about today that was a warning against shorting near the highs? Video duration: 4min 56sec
问题：我在14号K线的收盘价买入，然后经历了16点的波动，但决定继续交易，多次做空，结果损失远超之前赚到的。今天的行情有没有什么信号警告我们不要在高位做空？视频时长：4分56秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
如有需要，你也可以在 Al 的 YouTube 频道上观看此视频。
Price action shows better to buy
价格行为（PA）表明买入更有利。
Well first of all, the 16-point swing is a fabulous trade, and as far as shorting, we had these surprise bars: 24, 34, 35, 38, 39. And then here, 55, and 56, 57. After you’ve seen one, or two, or three of them — especially 34 — I would really become cautious about selling. Once you have a day where you’re starting to get a lot of bull bars closing on the highs — 8, 9, 12, 14, and then here [17], and then here [19]. That’s warning you that there’s pretty good buying pressure. 24, okay, possible two-leg trap, but then 34, 35, I think changed the nature of the day. And at that point I think it’s much better to look to buy than to sell.
首先，这个16点的波段是一个非常棒的交易机会。至于做空，我们遇到了这些意外的K线：24、34、35、38、39。然后这里，55、56、57。一旦你看到了一两根，或者三根这样的K线——尤其是34号K线——我会对卖出变得非常谨慎。一旦你遇到这样的一天，开始出现很多阳线收于高位——8、9、12、14，然后这里[17]，再这里[19]。这是在警告你，买盘压力相当大。24号K线，好吧，可能是一个两腿陷阱，但34、35号K线，我认为改变了当天的性质。在那个时候，我认为买入比卖出要好得多。
Reality check
现实检验
However, the reality is with all traders they have an approach to trading, and it works for some things and it’s bad for others. So as long as your wins are bigger than your losses, you’re okay. So doing what you did is okay. You were fading, right? You were buying a bear trend and then you switched to selling a bull trend, and the bull trend went on for a long, long time. So every time you kept selling near prior highs, you kept getting killed, right? Sell on the 25 high.
但现实是，所有交易者都有自己的交易方法，这种方法在某些情况下有效，而在另一些情况下则无效。 所以只要你的盈利大于亏损，你就没问题。 所以你之前做的事情是可以的。 你在反向操作，对吧？ 你在买入空头趋势，然后又转向卖出多头趋势，而多头趋势持续了很长时间。 所以每次你在之前的高点附近卖出时，你都会被套牢，对吧？ 在25号高点卖出。
Logical trade management
逻辑化的交易管理
Now, what you’re doing probably was logical , so you know what I’m going to say, right? Any time you do something logical as a trader, as long as you can follow it up with good management and wide stops, you can usually avoid a loss. But you have to trade small and you have to manage well. So let’s say the market’s rallying over here [B35] and you sell that close or sell that high [B25], right? Well, your minimum stop probably has to be at least a measured move up, right? So your stop is a little bit above there [MM top 2064]. So if you sell that close, you wait for a bear bar and you sell more here below 40, okay. And then you have two choices at that point: One is you decide to get out at the midpoint between your two entries or you try to get out at your first entry with a profit. So let’s say you sell — let’s do it his way — okay, so you sell with a limit order right here at the 25 high, okay, and you say, “Well, that’s not good. Look at that breakout,” and you sell more one point below 40. I have to try to shrink this down. So you sell more at one tick below 40, right? So here are your two entries, short here and short here. And what took place here [B41], right? It tells you a lot of traders did exactly what you did and there’s so many of them with limit orders to get out breakeven that they could not get filled. The ones who were patient got filled over here [B49], right, and part of the reason for this reversal probably was a lot of scale-in bears buying back their shorts, so this is probably short covering here.
现在，你所做的操作可能很合理，所以你知道我要说什么了，对吧？ 作为交易者，只要你做的事情是合理的，并且能够配合良好的管理和宽松的止损，通常就能避免亏损。 但你必须小仓位交易，并且管理得当。 假设市场在这里反弹 [B35]，你在收盘价或高点卖出 [B25]，对吧？ 那么，你的最小止损可能至少要设置在等距上涨的位置，对吧？ 所以你的止损点就在上面一点 [MM顶2064]。 如果你在收盘价卖出，就等待一根阴线，然后在40点以下再卖出更多，好吗。 然后在那个时候你有两个选择：一是决定在两个入场点的中间点平仓，或者尝试在第一个入场点获利平仓。 假设你卖出——我们按照他的方式来做——好吧，你在25点高位用限价单卖出，然后你说：“这不好。看看那个突破”，然后你在40点以下再卖出一点。 我得试着把这个缩小。 所以你在40点以下再卖出一点，对吧？ 这里是你的两个入场点，这里做空，这里做空。 这里发生了什么 [B41]，对吧？ 这告诉你，很多交易者都做了和你一样的事情，他们中有很多人设置了限价单希望在保本时平仓，但他们无法成交。 耐心的人在这里成交了 [B49]，对吧，部分反转的原因可能是许多加仓做空者回补空头头寸，所以这可能是空头回补。
Trade small, don’t panic!
轻仓操作，别慌！
And so to me, that’s probably what you need to be working on: Trading small and not panicking, just trying to manage your trades . The opposite was true over here, right? You had Buy The Close bulls here [B24] and some of them used a wide stop below here [B22]. Maybe all the way down to the low of the day. They waited for a decent bull bar and they bought more here [B31]. A lot of them tried to get out breakeven, which was easy to do. Others — breakeven on the entire trade — others tried to get out breakeven at that low [B25]. But when the market started to race up past that 25 low, it tells you that it’s a buy. So instead of bulls panicking, saying, “Oh my gosh, thank you for letting me out breakeven,” the market was racing up. So to me, that’s a sign that we’re going higher.
所以，在我看来，这可能是你需要努力的方向：小仓位交易，不要恐慌，只需尝试管理好你的交易。 相反的情况在这里发生了，对吧？ 你这里有收盘买入的多头 [B24]，其中一些人使用了下方较宽的止损 [B22]。 可能一直下跌到当天的低点。 他们等待一个像样的多头K线，然后在这里买入更多 [B31]。 许多人试图平仓离场，这很容易做到。 其他人——整个交易持平——其他人试图在低点 [B25] 持平离场。 但当市场开始迅速上涨，突破25低点时，这告诉你这是买入信号。 所以，多头没有恐慌，没有说“哦，天哪，谢谢你让我持平离场”，而是市场在迅速上涨。 所以，在我看来，这是我们将继续上涨的信号。
Trade small, use wide stops, scale in.
小仓位交易，使用宽止损，分批加仓。
So I don’t know if I’m making any sense, but I think the key is to trade smaller than what you think small is — so trade very small; use wide stops, and scale in. And if you’re buying, you scale-in, buy above a bull bar. Make sure it’s at least — I would say at least a couple scalp prices down. So if we’re trading the Emini, a scalp is one point. If I’m going to buy that close [B31] and I’m looking to buy above a bull bar, I’d want the bull bar to be at least a couple points below my first entry.
所以我不知道我说的这些是否有道理，但我认为关键是要比你认为的“小”更小地交易——也就是说，交易要非常小；使用宽止损，并分批加仓。如果你要买入，就分批加仓，在阳线上方买入。确保至少——我会说至少要比剥头皮价格低几个点。所以如果我们交易的是迷你标普（ES），剥头皮就是1点。如果我要买入这个收盘价（B31），并且我打算在阳线上方买入，我希望阳线至少比我的第一次入场价低几点。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
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