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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/depression-recession-where-are-we-heading/ 生成时间: 2026-08-31 14:22
Trading room commentary: April 1, 2020
交易室评论：2020年4月1日
Commentary: Depression? Recession? Where are we heading? Video duration: 8min 7sec
评论： 萧条？衰退？我们要去向何方？ 视频时长：8分7秒
The market is going lower
市场将继续下跌
Remember I said on the 60-minute chart [last week] that I thought we had to go lower. I thought we really needed to get to this low or a little bit below, and maybe to this low, before we get an attempt at a Major Trend Reversal.
记得我上周在60分钟图表上说过，我认为我们必须下跌。我认为我们确实需要跌到这个低点或略低于这个低点，甚至可能跌到这个低点，然后才有可能尝试主要趋势反转。
I also talked about Friday’s unemployment report [today is Wednesday]. Who cares, right? It’s going to be crummy, so nobody is going to pay any attention to it. Everybody knows it’s going to be bad, and everybody knows that there are tons of layoffs going on. Whether or not they’re in the April report or the May report, there are going to be tens of millions of people laid off. I would not be surprised if we start to get depression type of data.
我还谈到了周五的失业报告（今天是周三）。谁在乎呢？这会很糟糕，所以没人会关注它。每个人都知道情况会很糟糕，每个人都知道正在发生大量裁员。无论这些裁员是出现在4月的报告中还是5月的报告中，都会有数千万人被裁员。如果我们开始看到类似萧条的数据，我不会感到惊讶。
A regional depression unlike the 30s
与30年代不同的局部性萧条
I do think we’re going to be in a depression, but I also think it’s not going to be like the 1930s. I think it’s going to be more like regional for the areas that are in depression with unemployment 25%. And I also don’t think it’ll last a long time. Officially, the Depression ended in 1932, but that’s really not true. My parents were both alive back then, and they said it was really hard through most of the ’30s. So, even though the stock market may have bottomed and they said it was really bad for a long time.
我确实认为我们会陷入萧条，但我也认为这不会像1930年代那样。我认为这将更像是一种局部性的萧条，失业率达到25%的地区会受到影响。我也不认为这会持续很长时间。官方说法是，萧条在1932年结束，但这并不是事实。我的父母当时还活着，他们说整个30年代都非常艰难。所以，即使股市可能已经触底，但他们说情况长期以来一直很糟糕。
So I don’t think this is going to last like that, and I don’t think we’re going to lose 89% of the stock market. I would not be surprised if we lost 60% of the stock market by the time this is all done. But first leg down, I don’t think we’re going to go a lot lower. Maybe below last month’s low and then a bounce, and I think we’re probably going to be in a trading range.
所以我不认为这种情况会像那样持续下去，我也不认为我们会失去89%的股市。如果到事情结束时我们损失了60%的股市，我不会感到惊讶。但对于第一波下跌，我不认为我们会跌得更多。可能跌破上个月的低点，然后反弹，我认为我们可能会进入一个交易区间。
Pandemic worse than being reported
疫情比报道的还要严重
Back in February, I wrote a weekend report , and I said that the whole pandemic thing is going to be far worse than what the press is reporting, and they’re missing the story. They’re not listening to medical experts; they’re listening to politicians. There were only 70 confirmed cases of coronavirus when I wrote that report, and I said I would not be surprised if we had over 50 million Americans infected and over a million Americans die. And I still think that is realistic.
二月份的时候，我写了一份周末报告，我说整个疫情情况会比媒体报道的要严重得多，他们错过了关键点。他们没有听从医学专家的建议，而是听从政客的。当我写这份报告时，只有70例确诊的新冠肺炎病例，我说我不会惊讶如果有超过5000万美国人感染，超过100万美国人死亡。我仍然认为这是现实的。
If you think about it, we’ve got Dr Birx and Dr Fauci saying 100,000 – 200,000 dead, best case scenario. But that doesn’t make sense. A 1% death rate – so let’s say you get 100,000 people die. If it’s a 1% death rate, that means 10 million people infected. You say, wow, 10 million people, that’s a lot. Well, 10 million people out of 330 million people, that’s not even 1%, okay? [Al spoken error, 3% actually.]
如果你仔细想想，我们有伯克斯博士和福奇博士说，在最好的情况下，会有10万到20万人死亡。但这没有道理。1%的死亡率——假设有10万人死亡。如果死亡率为1%，这意味着有1000万人感染。你可能会说，哇，1000万人，这很多。但1000万人占3.3亿人口中的比例还不到1%，对吧？（Al口误，实际上是3%）。
Do you think the market is doing what it’s doing because of a problem that is less than 1%? Right? Do you think the market loses 35% in a month because 1% of the country might get sick? Of course not. It doesn’t make sense. The numbers that the government is giving do not make sense. So we’re going to get more than 10 million people infected. 1% of the country is not going to make the stock market sell off 35% in a month. There’s no sense to that at all.
你认为市场目前的表现是因为一个不到1%的问题吗？对吧？你认为市场在一个月内下跌35%是因为全国1%的人可能生病吗？当然不是。这没有道理。政府提供的数据没有道理。所以我们将有超过1000万人感染。全国1%的人口不会让股市在一个月内下跌35%。这完全没有道理。
I do think the problem is going to be much bigger than what the government is saying. I think it’s going to last a lot longer than what the government is saying. I don’t think we’ll have a vaccine until at least a year from now, so not January. Maybe April, maybe June 2021. By that time, I think there’ll be far more than 10 million people in the United States infected, and far more than 100,000 dead, and far more damage to the economy than what the clowns on television are saying. You cannot shut down that many industries for months on end, and then pretend that everything is going to be back to normal in a few months.
我确实认为这个问题会比政府说的要严重得多。我认为它会持续比政府说的要长得多。我认为至少要到一年后才能有疫苗，所以不是1月份。可能是4月，也可能是2021年6月。到那时，我认为美国感染的人数将远远超过1000万，死亡人数将远远超过10万，对经济的损害也将远远超过电视上的小丑们所说的。你不能让这么多行业停工数月，然后假装一切会在几个月内恢复正常。
Emini chart commentary
迷你标普图表评论
By the way, we should bounce here [Al is now talking about today’s 5 minute chart], but that does not mean it’s a very good-looking buy. But we’re at the Measured Move, we’re at the Globex low, we’re getting a bear breakout below a bear channel – all those things attract buyers. Bears buy back shorts and bulls start to buy for a bounce.
顺便说一句，我们应该在这里反弹（Al现在正在谈论今天的5分钟图表），但这并不意味着这是一个非常好的买入机会。但我们处于等距运动的位置，我们处于Globex低点，我们正在经历一个空头通道下方的空头突破——所有这些都吸引了买家。空头回补空单，多头开始买入以寻求反弹。
US Federal Reserve and Congress
美国联邦储备委员会和国会
Now, the Fed ( Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States ) and Congress ( United States Congress ) – Congress is passing stimulus packages. The Fed is trying to rescue the economy, trying to prevent a catastrophe, a depression. I think both the Fed and Congress are doing good things, okay? But you’ve got to remember their goal. The Fed is not saying “We’re doing all this stuff so that the bull market will resume, and everything will be back to normal in a few months.” That’s not what the Fed is saying.
现在，美联储（美国联邦储备银行）和国会（美国国会）都在行动——国会正在通过刺激方案。美联储试图拯救经济，试图防止灾难和萧条的发生。我认为美联储和国会都在做正确的事情，好吗？但你必须记住他们的目标。美联储并没有说“我们做这些事情是为了让多头市场恢复，几个月后一切都会恢复正常”。这不是美联储说的话。
What the Fed is saying, “We’re going to do everything in our power to prevent the economy from crashing.” Right? That’s what the Fed is saying. Their goal is not to get the bull trend to resume. When I hear those people on TV talk about that, I think they’re fools. That’s not what’s going to happen. All that the Fed is going to accomplish is they’re going to reduce the damage, okay, and slow down the damage. They are not going to fix the economy.
美联储说的是：“我们将尽一切努力防止经济崩溃。”对吧？这就是美联储说的话。他们的目标不是让多头趋势恢复。当我听到电视上的人谈论这个问题时，我认为他们是愚蠢的。这不会发生。美联储唯一能做到的就是减少损失，好吗，并减缓损失的速度。他们不会修复经济。
The Fed cannot fix the economy. They can prevent damage and they can slow the rate of damage down, but they cannot stop the damage and they cannot erase it. It’s not like you take a pill and you get better. All the stuff that you’re hearing on TV about “Is the bottom in?” – that’s crazy talk. And all this talk from experts saying, “Oh, I was around in ’87. It was a great buying opportunity” – that’s true, ’87 was a great buying opportunity, but there’s an entirely different situation. ’87 happened for no reason. It just happened.
美联储无法修复经济。他们可以防止损失，可以减缓损失的速度，但他们无法阻止损失，也无法消除损失。这不像你吃了药就会好起来。你在电视上听到的所有关于“底部是否已经出现？”的讨论都是疯话。还有专家说：“哦，我在87年就经历过。那是一个很好的买入机会”——这是真的，87年是一个很好的买入机会，但情况完全不同。87年的崩盘没有原因，它就是发生了。
Crash happens for a reason
崩盘是有原因的
This crash is happening for a reason. The market was the most overbought in history in 2017. When that happens, you’re going to get a correction that is deeper and lasts longer than your typical correction. So there’s a reason behind what’s going on now, and there’s nothing that the Fed can do to stop it. The talk on television, it’s really easy to listen to it and conclude that the Fed is going to fix things. They’re not going to fix things. They’re trying to reduce damage, okay?
这次崩盘是有原因的。2017年的市场是历史上最超买的。当这种情况发生时，你会得到一个比典型的修正更深、持续时间更长的修正。所以，现在发生的事情背后是有原因的，美联储无法阻止它。电视上的讨论很容易让人得出结论，认为美联储会解决问题。他们不会解决问题。他们试图减少损失，好吗？
The patient has cancer. They’re not trying to cure the cancer. They’re trying to make the person die more slowly. I haven’t heard a single person on television talk about that, but that’s the goal of the Fed. I keep hearing, “The Fed is going to fix everything.” The Fed is not going to fix anything, okay? This problem is a bigger problem, and it’s going to last a lot longer than what people think.
病人得了癌症。他们不是试图治愈癌症，而是试图让这个人死得更慢。我还没有在电视上听到任何人谈论这个问题，但这就是美联储的目标。我一直听到“美联储会解决一切问题”。美联储不会解决任何问题，好吗？这个问题是一个更大的问题，它会持续比人们想象的更长时间。
Second problem: Overbought market
第二个问题：超买的市场
And you get two problems, and that’s another thing that nobody’s talking about. You’ve got two problems. You’ve got the short-term problem, the pandemic. That’ll last a couple years. But what happens if 4 years from now, 3 years from now, we’re still not anywhere near the high? Then are you still going to blame the pandemic? No, because the problem is not the pandemic. It’s the second problem: the market was the most overbought in history, 2017, and you’re probably going to be in a Trading Range for a decade.
你会遇到两个问题，而这又是没人谈论的另一件事。你有两个问题。你有短期问题，即疫情。这将持续几年。但如果4年后、3年后，我们仍然远未接近高点，那你还会怪罪疫情吗？不会，因为问题不是疫情。这是第二个问题：2017年市场是最超买的，历史上从未有过，你可能要在交易区间内横盘十年。
Price got too far ahead of fundamentals. It’s going to take more than a couple years of sideways trading for the fundamentals to catch up to price. It will take a decade, and that is the fundamental problem. That is the fundamental problem. That Buy Climax in 2017, that price had never in history been that far ahead of the fundamentals, and it’s going to take a long time of sideways trading before the fundamentals catch up to that price.
价格远远领先于基本面。基本面要追上价格，需要横盘交易不止几年，而要十年，这才是根本问题。这才是根本问题。2017年的买入高潮，价格从未像历史上那样远远领先于基本面，基本面要追上这个价格，需要很长时间的横盘交易。
Am I right? We’ll find out.
我说得对吗？我们会发现答案。