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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/fundamentals-mathematics-computers-and-my-job-as-trader/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 15:20
BPA trading room Q&A: May 25, 2011
BPA 交易室问答：2011年5月25日
Where did all that selling come from? (Bars 70-81). I know big traders and computers will short above swing highs expecting points like bar 28 to be tested, and to take profits, but it just keeps going. I don’t understand why. Did bears just hold because bar 76 was strong? Or was it the wedge? Or no-one left to scale in? Audio duration: 9min 44sec — Scroll down for images
那么多的卖压从哪里来？（12号K线到81号K线）。我知道大户和电脑程序会在波段高点上方做空，预期会测试像28号K线这样的点位并获利了结，但价格却持续下跌。我不明白为什么。空头只是因为76号K线强势而继续持有吗？还是因为楔形？还是因为没有人剩下可以加仓？音频时长：9分44秒——向下滚动查看图片
Audio transcript
音频文字记录
Where did all that selling come from?
那么多的卖压从哪里来？
That is a really good question and really important question. He’s asking, “Why?” He’s asking fundamentals. Trading has nothing to do with fundamentals, for the most part. At least nothing to do as far as most traders are concerned. You hear the idiots on Fast Money, and the pundits all the time talking fundamentals. A stock can be going up for 6 months, and then you’ll hear, “Oh, the world population is growing, there’s going to be a demand for corn. And therefore, Monsanta should go up.” But the world was growing yesterday, it was growing a month ago, it was growing 6 months ago. And the demand for food was there 6 months ago as well. So why today, all of a sudden, should we buy Monsanto, or Potash? To me, it’s all craziness to argue fundamentals. Most of the time, even if you know the fundamentals, you don’t have the ability to understand them. So when you’re asking, “Why?” to me it’s kind of asking fundamentals. And they’re irrelevant.
这是一个非常好的问题，也是一个非常重要的问题。他在问“为什么？”他在问基本面。交易在很大程度上与基本面无关。至少对大多数交易者来说，与基本面无关。你听那些《快钱》节目里的傻瓜和专家们一直在谈论基本面。一只股票可能上涨了6个月，然后你会听到：“哦，世界人口在增长，对玉米的需求会增加。因此，孟山都的股价应该会上涨。”但世界昨天就在增长，一个月前也在增长，六个月前也在增长。对粮食的需求六个月前也存在。那么为什么今天，我们突然要买孟山都或钾肥公司呢？在我看来，争论基本面都是疯狂的。大多数时候，即使你知道基本面，你也没有能力理解它们。所以当你问“为什么？”时，在我看来，这有点像在问基本面。而这些都是不相关的。
Most of the trading that we see during the day is done by computers. And the computers are basing their trade decisions on mathematics. And it’s not like all the firms are using the same algorithms, and everyone is coming up with exactly the same prices. A lot of the measured move targets are the same. But big moves and crazy reversals like down from 70 take place only because a whole bunch of computers had the same algorithm, or comparable algorithms. Some might be shorting because of the 51 – 60 wedge. Others might be shorting because of yesterday’s 72 and today’s 28 wedge. Others could be shorting because of measured move targets. It doesn’t matter. As long as enough computers are doing the same thing, the market will act in a certain way. Once a move starts to pick up speed, like 67 – 68, you get computers that are trading purely on the basis of momentum. “Eight of the past 10 ticks were up, therefore we are going to buy. We are going to keep buying until we get some down ticks”. So the momentum traders piggy-backing onto what the other computers are doing on the move up from 66. Now when the momentum starts to slow, the momentum traders take profits. When the momentum starts to build on the downside, 76 – 77, those momentum computers, they don’t care about fundamentals – they don’t even care about mathematical targets, or measured moves. They’re just trading momentum. They see the momentum on the downside, they just start shorting. And they keep shorting all the way down until the momentum stops, and then they’ll buy back their shorts. But as they are shorting, they’re triggering signals for other traders to short. “Oh, the market moved below the 68, 67 strong signal bar”. So some computers will short there. “It moved below 66” – other computers will short there. “It moved below 62” – other computers will short there. “Oh, it fell 4 and a quarter from the high” – some computers will short there. “It fell 6 points from the high” – other computers will short there. “It broke a trend line… It broke a trend channel line.” And if enough computers are placing trades in the same direction, you can get a move that can go very far and very fast.
我们在白天看到的大部分交易都是由计算机完成的。而计算机的交易决策是基于数学的。这并不意味着所有公司都使用相同的算法，也不意味着每个人都会得出完全相同的价格。许多等距运动的目标是相同的。但像从70点下跌这样的大幅波动和疯狂反转，只会发生在一大群计算机使用相同或相似算法的时候。有些人可能因为51-60的楔形而做空。另一些人可能因为昨天的72和今天的28楔形而做空。还有一些人可能因为等距运动目标而做空。这并不重要。只要有足够多的计算机在做同样的事情，市场就会以某种方式运作。一旦波动开始加速，比如67-68，就会有计算机完全基于动量进行交易。“过去10个跳动中有8个是上涨的，所以我们要买入。我们会一直买入，直到出现一些下跌跳动为止。” 所以，动量交易者搭上了其他计算机在从66点上涨过程中的顺风车。现在，当动量开始放缓时，动量交易者就会获利了结。当下跌动量开始积累时，比如76-77，这些动量计算机并不关心基本面——它们甚至不关心数学目标或等距运动。它们只是交易动量。它们看到下跌的动量，就开始做空。它们会一直做空，直到动量停止，然后再买回空头头寸。但当它们做空时，就会触发其他交易者的做空信号。“哦，市场跌破了68、67的强信号K线。” 所以有些计算机会在那里做空。“它跌破了66点”——其他计算机会在那里做空。“它跌破了62点”——其他计算机会在那里做空。“哦，它从高点下跌了4又1/4点”——一些计算机会在那里做空。“它从高点下跌了6点”——其他计算机会在那里做空。“它突破了一条趋势线……它突破了一条趋势通道线。” 如果有足够多的计算机在同一方向下单，市场可能会出现非常远且非常快的波动。
My job as trader
我作为交易员的工作
But I never worry about “why?” My job is to be very good at following what the market is doing. I don’t care about understanding why the market is doing something. I just accept that it’s all mathematical. And if enough firms are doing something similar, you can get a move that goes far and fast. My job is to focus on what the chart is doing in front of me, and try to do exactly what it is doing. If it’s going up I want to buy. If it’s going down, I want to sell. I never have to understand “why?” All I have to do is be very good at following. And my job is to follow. My job is not to predict. My job is not to anticipate. My job is not to hope. My job is not to worry. My job is simply to follow. If the market is going up, I want to buy. If it’s going down I want to sell.
但我从不担心“为什么？”我的工作是非常擅长跟踪市场正在做什么。我不在乎理解市场为什么要做某些事情。我只是接受这一切都是数学上的。如果足够多的公司做类似的事情，你就可以得到一个走得远且快的行情。我的工作是专注于我面前的图表正在做什么，并尝试做它正在做的事情。如果它上涨，我想买入。如果它下跌，我想卖出。我永远不需要理解“为什么？”我只需要非常擅长跟踪。我的工作就是跟踪。我的工作不是预测。我的工作不是预判。我的工作不是希望。我的工作不是担心。我的工作只是跟踪。如果市场上涨，我想买入。如果它下跌，我想卖出。
But I understand that it can be disturbing to see crazy things like the move up to 69 and then the move straight down. It’s a low probability event. But every event has a probability. And most events have a probability of at least 20% to 30%. No matter how crazy the move appears at the moment that it’s taking place, it still has its point to 30%. At any point during the day, I always think there’s at least a 20% to 30% chance that the next bar could be the start of a trend in the opposite direction. Always, always, always, always. And I never worry about “Heck why – how can that be?” I always say that. Even if I think the market has a 70% chance of going up. Back over here [yesterday’s chart – below] I probably said something like a 60% – 70% chance of higher prices. That means a 30% chance of not higher prices. And a 30% chance that that’s the top. How could it possibly sell off? It doesn’t matter. If the computers make it sell off I don’t need to know what their algorithm is. Nobody knows what anybody else’s algorithms are. And it doesn’t matter. I just follow the flow. And if you look at higher timeframe charts, a lot of times things, patterns look clearer. This is the timeframe I am trading. I could look at a 1 minute chart and everything could look confusing and I might not be able to take the trades fast enough. But whatever confusion I see on the 1 minute chart, I’ll probably see clarity on a 5 minute chart, or 15 minute chart, or 60 minute chart. So whenever we see stuff that looks confused here, higher timeframe traders see it as very clear. This channel down yesterday from 22 to 50, is very sloppy, I’m sure that on a 15 minute chart or 60 minute chart it was very clean.
我理解看到像涨到69然后直接下跌这样的疯狂走势会让人不安。这是一个低概率事件。但每个事件都有概率。而且大多数事件的概率至少在20%到30%之间。无论当时走势看起来多么疯狂，它仍然具有至少30%的概率点。一天中的任何时刻，我总是认为下一根K线至少有20%-30%的概率成为相反方向趋势的起点。一直，一直，一直，一直。我从不担心“ extraño – 怎么可能”这句话，我一直这么说。即使我认为市场有70%的概率上涨。回到这里[昨天的图表——下面]，我可能说过类似“60%-70%的概率价格会更高”的话。这就意味着有30%的概率价格不会更高，也有30%的概率这就是顶部。它怎么可能回落？没关系。如果算盘让它回落，我不需要知道它们的算法是什么。没有人知道别人的算法是什么。这也没有关系。我只跟随走势。而且如果你看更高时间周期的图表，很多时候事物和形态会看得更清晰。这就是我在交易的时间周期。我可以看1分钟K线图，一切可能看起来混乱，我可能来不及进行交易。但我在1分钟K线图上看到的任何混乱，我可能在5分钟、15分钟或60分钟K线图上会看到清晰。所以无论我们在这里看到什么看起来混乱的东西，更高时间周期的交易者都会认为它非常清晰。昨天从22到50的这个下行通道非常混乱，我确定在15分钟或60分钟K线图上它非常清晰。
The music of the markets
市场的音乐
Anyway, back to your specific question, as far as why is this craziness happening. I just smile, I sit back and I smile and I say “Well that’s really fascinating how a low probability event just took place.” I smile and I never worry about it, because if I worried about why, all I can do is get myself upset because the reality is it’s all mathematics. And everything has a definite, real probability. And the opposite of what you believe has a real probability. Probably at least 30% at all times. A lot of times it will be 60% opposite of what you believe. You think you’re 60% certain, the reality is the market is 60% likely to do the opposite of what you believe is 60% certain. You just never get attached to an opinion. Never get convinced that the market is going to do something. Always accept that no matter how confident you are – even the craziest idea has a 20% – 30% chance of happening. And no matter how confident you are, it’s hard to be more than 60% confident, but that means a 40% chance of the opposite happening. And 40% is a large enough percentage that you have to be very respectful of it. You have to be willing to change your opinion within a bar or two. And I do that all the time. But that’s Ok. For me, that’s one of the enjoyable things about trading – can I just kind of float all day long on the waves, and ride the waves wherever they’re taking me. And not fight it, just go with it. And I like that, to me it’s personally satisfying. It’s very challenging, but it’s very satisfying. To be able to listen to the music of the market, and then being able to move with it. To me it’s very pleasing. However, there are all kinds of things that when you’re starting out – they’re upsetting. I mean they’re crazy. Like the sell off from 70, you look at it and say, “That’s not fair.” But it doesn’t matter. There’s no way to program fairness, so it’s not a consideration in the computer algorithms. Should a trader have shorted below 70, given it’s a bear inside bar after a breakout? I’m sure lots of traders looked at it and said, “Yeah, low probability trade. But it may trade down 4 or 5 points and I’m risking 7 ticks to make 4 or 5 points on a 30% bet. I’ll go for it.” And the traders that took that trade, they did just fine.
再说回你的具体问题，至于为什么会发生这种疯狂的事情。我只是笑了笑，坐下来，又笑了笑，我说“hm，真是有趣，一个低概率事件刚刚发生。”我笑了笑，我从不担心它，因为如果我去担心为什么，我只能让自己心烦，因为事实就是这一切都是数学。所有事情都有一个确定的、真实的概率。与你所相信的相反也有一个真实的概率。 pratiquement 随时都至少有30%。很多时候，与你认为的相反会达到60%。你认为自己有60%的把握，而实际上市场有60%的概率去做与你认为的60%把握相反的事情。你永远不要对一个观点产生依赖。永远不要确信市场会做某事。无论你多有信心——即使是最疯狂的想法也有20%－30%的发生机会——都要接受这一点。无论你多有信心，很难超过60%的信心，但这意味着相反发生的概率有40%。而40%是一个足够大的比例，你必须非常尊重它。你必须愿意在一两根K线内改变你的观点。我一直都这么做。但这没关系。对交易而言，这对我来说是件享受的事——我可以整天在波浪上漂浮，顺着浪去走它带我去的地方。我不与之对抗，只是顺势而为。我很喜欢这种感觉，对我个人而言很满足。这非常具有挑战性，但也非常满足。能够聆听市场的音乐，然后能够随之而动。对我而言，这很愉悦。然而，当你刚开始时，会有各种让人不快的事情。我的意思是，它们很疯狂。就像从70点开始的抛售，你看着它会说“这不公平”。但这没关系。没有办法把公平性编程进去，所以这在计算机算法里不是考虑因素。假如一个交易者在突破后的空头内包线中在70点以下做空，你觉得怎么样？我确定很多交易者看了之后会说“没错，这是低概率交易。但它可能下跌4或5个点，我冒7个tick的风险去赚4或5个点，按30%的赌注我会去尝试。”那些参与该交易的交易者做得很好。
‘Why?’ is never important
“为什么？”从来都不重要。
Anyway, I’m sorry about going on about this, but I think it’s really, really important. “Why” is never important to me, “Why” in the fundamental sense. To me it’s all mathematics. There are magnets all over the place. The market gets vacuumed up to prices like the 69 high. It gets vacuumed down, like the 9 low. And that happens all day long. Once the market reaches the vacuum area, the target area, bears appear out of nowhere. “What? How can that possibly be?” It’s because the bears expected the prices to hit 1,324 for whatever reason, and they were not going to short until they got there. The bulls thought it was going to hit that price, for whatever reason, and they were not going to take profits until it got there. Once it got there, the bulls sold out, they took their profits, and the bears started to short. And the bears were going to scalp out lower, they were going to buy back lower, at the first sign of a bull flag triggering. The bulls were looking to buy lower, as soon as a bull flag was starting to set up. It never set up, so the bulls never bought. And the bears never bought back their shorts. The market just kept selling off. To me I just admire it, I just look back and I enjoy it. To me it’s like looking at a garden, watching the stuff grow. To me it’s very satisfying, I like it. And I like being able to move with the music of the market. And it takes a long time to be able to just let go. To become a follower, and just let the currents move you around. And not fight them, and just let them take you wherever they’re heading. I think that is a very important character trait to develop in becoming a successful trader. Alright, sorry for running on like this. Hope everybody has a good night.
总之，我对这个话题讲得有点多，但我认为这非常非常重要。从根本意义上说，“为什么”对我来说从来都不重要。对我来说，这都是数学。到处都有磁铁。市场被吸到像69高点这样的价格上，又被吸到像9低点这样的价格下。这种情况整天都在发生。一旦市场到达真空区域、目标区域，空头就会从无处冒出来。“什么？这怎么可能？”这是因为空头出于某种原因预期价格会触及1,324点，他们不会在到达那里之前做空。多头认为价格会触及该点位，出于某种原因，他们不会在到达那里之前获利了结。一旦价格到达那里，多头就会卖出，他们会获利了结，而空头则会开始做空。空头打算在更低的价格剥头皮，在出现多头旗形触发的第一个信号时，他们会买回。多头在多头旗形开始形成时，就打算买入更低的价格。但旗形从未形成，所以多头从未买入。空头也从未买回他们的空头头寸。市场只是持续下跌。对我来说，我只是钦佩它，我回过头来看，我很享受它。对我来说，这就像看花园，看着东西生长。对我来说，这非常令人满意，我喜欢它。我喜欢能够随着市场的音乐而移动。要能够放手，需要很长时间。成为一名跟随者，让潮流把你带动起来。不要与它们对抗，让它们把你带到它们要去的地方。我认为这是成为一名成功交易者需要培养的一个非常重要的性格特质。好了，抱歉讲得这么多。希望大家有个美好的夜晚。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
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