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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/high-probability-trades/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:15
High probability trades discussion BPA trading room Q&A: February 11, 2016
高概率交易策略讨论：BPA交易室问答环节，2016年2月11日
Question 1 of 3: What is the highest probability trade today? Video duration: 6min 04sec
问题 1/3：今天概率最高的交易是什么？视频时长：6分04秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
如有需要，你也可以在 Al 的 YouTube 频道上观看此视频。
High probability – not the whole story
高概率——这还不是全部故事
Now, that is a very interesting question, okay, because it addresses one variable — probability — and it ignores two others — risk and reward. To me, the highest probability trade was the one that I said. When bar 62 was happening, I said, “Traders are buying,” you know, “I’m buying, it’s going up,” right? So 62 is the highest probability trade, but that does not mean it’s the easiest trade. It just means the probability that we’re going to get some kind of a measured move out of 62 is very high, probably 70 percent. But the risk is big depending on where you bought. If you bought the close, you’re risking, whatever, 12 points or so. The reward is at least as big, but with the probability 60 or 70 percent, it’s a great trade. So that is the highest probability trade.
这是一个非常有趣的问题，因为它只涉及一个变量——概率——而忽略了另外两个变量——风险和回报。对我来说，概率最高的交易就是我之前说的那个。当62号K线出现时，我说：“交易者正在买入，我也在买入，价格会上涨”，对吧？所以62号K线是概率最高的交易，但这并不意味着它是最简单的交易。这只是意味着我们从62号K线获得某种等距运动的概率非常高，可能达到70%。但风险很大，这取决于你在哪里买入。如果你在收盘时买入，你承担的风险大约是12个点。回报至少同样大，但考虑到60%或70%的概率，这是一笔很好的交易。所以这就是概率最高的交易。
Brain dead trader?
脑残交易者？
Also, I think when you’re starting out it’s a difficult trade to take. When the market’s going down, down, down, and you’re thinking, “Oh my gosh, it’s going to fall below the January low,” and instead it reverses up suddenly like that, it’s just really hard starting out — just become brain dead and mechanical, but that’s what I do. It’s going up 62, I don’t think, “This can’t be happening. This is happening too fast; the risk is too big; I better wait for a pullback.” No. I say, “Buy the market. Just hit the button. Buy the market.” The market is clearly going up and it’s going up very fast. It’s a big surprise to everyone, bulls and bears, it’s going higher, right? Everyone is going to have to adjust to this reversal. It’s going to go higher, and the slower you are to hit that button, the less profit you’ll have and the greater your risk will be.
此外，我认为对于新手来说，这是一笔很难做的交易。当市场持续下跌时，你会想：“天哪，它要跌破一月份的低点了”，但它却突然反转向上，这对于新手来说确实很难——你会变得像个脑残一样机械化操作，但这就是我所做的。它上涨了 62 点，我不会想：“这不可能发生。这发生得太快了；风险太大了；我最好等回撤再进场。”不。我说：“买入市场。直接按下按钮。买入市场。”市场显然在上升，而且上升得非常快。这对多头和空头来说都是一个巨大的惊喜，它会继续上涨，对吧？每个人都必须适应这次反转。它会继续上涨，你按下按钮的速度越慢，你的利润就越少，风险就越大。
Be prepared for reversal
做好反转的准备
But in those first two minutes, 62, it was clearly a change in the market. There was clearly a change in the market. And, you know, I said earlier these gap bars could lead to major trend reversals so you had to be prepared for some kind of a reversal around the low of the day, and we’re at such critical support on the daily chart. And we’re also at the bottom of a channel in the 60-minute chart. So there were a lot of things going on that had the potential to lead to a reversal.
但在前两分钟，62号K线显然标志着市场的变化。市场显然发生了变化。我之前说过，这些缺口K线可能导致主要趋势反转，所以你必须为日低附近某种反转做好准备，因为我们在日线图上处于关键支撑位。同时，我们也在60分钟图的通道底部。因此，有很多因素可能导致反转。
Question 2 of 3: Do you think it is more difficult to enter as a bar is forming than it is to buy or sell closes? I have a habit for picking the worst possible tick to enter when I buy and sell the market.
问题 2/3：你觉得在 K 线形成过程中入场，比在收盘时买入或卖出更难吗？我有一个坏习惯，总是在买入或卖出市场时选择最糟糕的点位入场。
Enter on the close, or before?
是收盘时入场，还是提前入场？
In general, it’s easier to enter on the close because a lot of times you anticipate it. Three or four minutes into the bar you’ll say, “Yeah, this looks like a good close. I’m going to buy it when it closes,” so you can be ready for it. And buying as the bar is forming, a lot of times — like 62 — it’s a surprise, and it’s hard to do. 50, 12 — those were clearly Sell The Close. And 50 especially happened very, very quickly so, when in doubt — when I’m in doubt — I just enter at the market. On most software, you have some kind of a button that says, you know, Sell the market or Buy the market, and I use that a lot in bars like 50 and like bars 62 and 64. When it’s clearly moving very quickly and you know it’s going to go higher or lower, depending on if it’s a bull or a bear, I just hit “buy the market” or “sell the market.”
一般来说，在收盘时入场更容易，因为你通常能提前预判到。在K线形成的三四分钟后，你会说：“是的，这看起来是个不错的收盘价。我要在收盘时买入”，这样你就能做好准备。而在K线形成过程中买入，很多时候——比如62号K线——这是一个惊喜，很难做到。50号K线、12号K线——这些显然是“卖出收盘价”。尤其是50号K线，发生得非常快，所以当我犹豫不决时，我就直接以市价入场。在大多数软件中，都有一个按钮，上面写着“卖出市场”或“买入市场”，我在像50号K线、62号K线和64号K线这样的情况下经常使用它。当市场显然快速移动，你知道它会继续上涨或下跌（取决于是多头还是空头）时，我就直接点击“买入市场”或“卖出市场”。
Waiting for confirmation
等待确认信号
[Ref picking worst possible tick habit] What you’re doing is you’re waiting until you’re convinced that the market is going up. So you end up buying the high and at that point experienced traders are taking partial profits, and you get a pullback. I don’t have a problem with that. Buying the 62 close, who cares, right? So you’re buying whatever, 12 points off the low. That’s fine. You know it’s going higher; you know it’s going up for at least a measured move, so as long as you can trade small enough, you have a 60 or 70 percent chance of making a reward equal to your risk. That is a good trade.
[关于选择最差的点位习惯的说明] 你在做的事情是，你等到你确信市场会上涨时才行动。所以你最终买在了高点，而此时有经验的交易者正在部分获利了结，你就遭遇了回撤。我对此没有意见。买在62点的收盘价，谁在乎呢，对吧？所以你买入的点位，无论是离低点12点，都没问题。你知道它会走高；你知道它至少会走出一个等距运动，所以只要你能足够小仓位交易，你就有60%到70%的机会获得与风险相当的回报。这是一笔好交易。
Does your trade make sense?
你的交易合理吗？
So, I wouldn’t worry about buying or selling the market; all I would worry about is whether or not whatever you choose to do makes sense, right? So buying the 63 close, 62 close, it made sense. So if you used the right stop and taken an adequate profit, it made sense so it does not matter that you’re entering a little bit later than other traders. What you’re doing makes sense.
所以，我不会担心买入或卖出市场；我只会担心你选择做的事情是否有意义，对吧？所以买入63收盘价、62收盘价，这是有意义的。所以，如果你使用了正确的止损并获得了足够的利润，那就是有意义的，所以你比其他交易者晚一点入场并不重要。你所做的事情是有意义的。
Question 3 of 3: Al, can you talk about how you traded the bull spike 62 to 65? How many trades? When flat? Market orders, limit orders, one or two point scalps?
问题 3/3：Al，你能谈谈你是如何交易62到65号K线的多头尖刺的吗？做了几笔交易？何时持平？是市价单、限价单，还是1-2点的短线交易？
Traders are buying – so buy!
交易者正在买入——所以，买入！
I think the first trade, I bought 62 as it was quickly turning up. I don’t remember what I said, but I said something to the effect that this is going up; traders are buying. I may even has said I’m buying. So the first trade, to be honest, I don’t know how much I made. I know I made at least four or five points on one trade and then I think I switched to two-point scalps. And, I don’t remember, I may have bought. This first one, I just hit “buy the market” and then when it got up pretty high I just took a profit. And then I bought the 63 close. I think I went for four points on the 63 close. I don’t remember. And I don’t remember if I took a third trade up there or not. And what did I do? In here, I think I bought the 69 low and that was it. I think I took two points and that was it.
我认为第一笔交易是我买入62，因为价格迅速上涨。我不记得我说了什么，但我说的意思是，价格会上涨；交易者正在买入。我甚至可能说过我正在买入。所以，说实话，我不知道第一笔交易赚了多少钱。我知道我在一笔交易中至少赚了四五个点，然后我认为我转成了两点的短线交易。我不记得了，我可能买入了。第一笔交易，我只是点击了“买入市场”，然后当价格上涨到相当高的水平时，我就获利了结。然后我买入了63的收盘价。我认为我在63的收盘价上赚了四个点。我不记得了。我也不记得我是否在那里进行了第三笔交易。我做了什么？在这里，我认为我买入了69的低点，就这样。我认为我赚了两个点，就这样。
No edge, no trade
没有优势，就不交易
I debated about buying as 74 was going up, but I was tired and if I’m not at my best whatever little edge I have over Goldman Sachs is non-existent. So if I’m not at my best, I just sit and I wait. You know, I’m a body, right? I’m not a machine and, every good trader can only have a small edge because he’s competing against really smart, experienced people. So if you’re not at your best, whatever edge you have when you are at your best, is not there. So if you do not have an advantage, it does not make sense taking a trade.
我曾在74上涨时犹豫要不要买入，但我很疲惫；如果我不处于最佳状态，我相对高盛所拥有的那点微小优势基本就不存在了。所以如果我不在最佳状态，我就会坐下来等待。你知道的，我只是个普通人，不是机器；任何优秀的交易者只能拥有很小的优势，因为他要跟真正聪明、经验丰富的人竞争。因此，如果你不处于最佳状态，你在最佳时所拥有的那点优势就会消失。如果你没有优势，就没有理由去交易。
Tomorrow’s market review
明天的市场回顾
Okay, so tomorrow will be interesting. To me, this short covering so far is not enough to make me think we’re going a lot higher. We might, but the bulls really need follow through otherwise we’re going to fall below that January low within the next few days.
好了，明天会很有趣。对我来说，目前的空头回补还不足以让我认为市场会大幅上涨。我们可能会上涨，但多头确实需要后续跟进，否则我们将在未来几天内跌破1月份的低点。
Okay, hope everybody has a good night.
好，希望大家今晚过得愉快。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于Al的在线日交易室的信息