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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/how-long-to-get-profitable-following-trading-room/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:57
BPA trading room Q&A: May 22, 2015
BPA 交易室问答：2015年5月22日
You said it would take about two years to become profitable after taking your trading course. What about if we only take your trade recommendations in this trading room webinar?
你说过，在参加完你的交易课程后，大约需要两年时间才能实现盈利。如果我们只按照你在这个交易室网络研讨会中的交易建议操作，情况会怎样？
Audio duration: 8min 15sec
音频时长：8分15秒
Audio transcript
音频转录内容：
大家好，我是 Al Brooks。今天我们来讨论一下如何利用价格行为（PA）识别和交易突破回撤（Breakout Pullback）模式。
在趋势市场中，突破回撤是一个常见的交易机会。当价格突破一个交易区间（Trading Range）或一个关键水平后，通常会出现回撤（Pullback）。这时候，我们可以寻找入场机会，跟进趋势。
例如，在 ES（迷你标普）市场中，假设我们看到一个窄幅交易区间（Tight Trading Range）被向上突破（Breakout）。12号K线是一根强劲的阳线（Bull Bar），突破了区间上沿。接下来，价格可能会出现回撤，测试突破的有效性。
在回撤过程中，我们需要关注信号K线（Signal Bar）的出现。如果回撤的K线是一根阴线（Bear Bar），但未能突破区间下沿，且后续跟进（Follow-through）的K线是一根阳线，那么这可能是一个入场信号。我们可以在入场K线（Entry Bar）的收盘价附近做多，止损（Stop）设在信号K线的低点下方。
记住，突破回撤模式的关键在于识别回撤的深度和力度。如果回撤过于深或力度过强，可能意味着突破失败（Failed Breakout）。因此，我们需要谨慎选择入场时机，确保风险回报比（Risk/Reward）合理。
此外，我们还可以结合其他价格行为模式，如内包线（Inside Bar）、十字线（Doji）等，来提高交易的成功率。始终保持耐心，等待高概率（Probability）的交易机会，这才是获得长期优势（Edge）的关键。
希望今天的分享对大家有所帮助。继续努力，成为更好的交易者！
Can I learn to trade profitably in 2 years?
我能在两年内学会盈利交易吗？
Actually, I don’t know that I said that it would take about two years to get profitable after taking the class (course). I think what I said was if a trader is going to stick with it and do everything right and try really hard, and he is going to end up being consistently profitable, I think it would take at least two years. I think it takes at least that long to get good. But it takes a lot of work, too.
实际上，我不觉得我说过上完课程后大概要两年时间才能盈利。我想我说的是，如果一个交易者愿意坚持下去，把每件事都做对，并且非常努力，那他最终会持续稳定盈利，我认为这至少需要两年。要练到那个水平，至少需要那么长时间，而且需要付出大量努力。
Trading room webinar? Trading course? Other…
交易室网络研讨会？交易课程？其他…
Okay, question: What about if we only take trades recommendations on your webinar versus starting the video course?
好的，问题：如果我们只在您的网络研讨会上接受交易建议，而不是开始视频课程，怎么样？
I don’t know. You can read books; you can practice trading on your own; you can study charts; you can take the video course ; you can sit through this every day and listen to what I’m saying. And it all helps. And the more information that you accumulate, the faster you have a chance at being consistently profitable and doing this for a living. But as far as what traders should expect, should someone be able to do it in one year or should it take one year, or should it take five years? It took me 10 years and I’m a pretty smart guy, so that tells me that high IQ alone is not enough to be a good trader, and it also makes me believe that you don’t need a super high IQ to be a good trader.
我不知道。你可以看书；你可以自己练习交易；你可以研究图表；你可以学习视频课程；你可以每天坐在这里听我说话。这些都有帮助。你积累的信息越多，就越有机会实现持续盈利，并以此为生。但对于交易者应该有什么样的预期，一个人是否能在一年内做到这一点，或者是否需要一年，或者是否需要五年？我花了10年时间，而我是一个相当聪明的人，这告诉我，高智商本身并不足以成为一名优秀的交易者，也让我相信，成为一名优秀的交易者并不需要超高的智商。
I think there are other qualities that are much more important — discipline; being able to stick to a plan; remaining objective; not getting too emotional; trading the appropriate size; managing your trades correctly; finding a timeframe that suits your personality; finding a style of trading that suits your personality.
我认为还有其他更重要的品质——纪律性；能够坚持计划；保持客观性；不要过于情绪化；交易合适的仓位；正确管理你的交易；找到适合你性格的时间框架；找到适合你性格的交易风格。
Remember, 90 percent of the bars on the chart, at any moment, you can buy or sell and make money if you manage your trade correctly. It’s only 10 percent of the bars on the chart that it’s better only to take a trade in one direction, during a strong break out. But for the rest of the day, even buying up here (B43/44) — if you scale in lower, you can make money. Even selling down here (B21) — if you manage correctly, you can do okay. You scale in higher, get out break even on the first, right?
记住，图表上的 K线 有 90% 在任何时刻，如果你正确管理交易，买入或卖入都能赚钱。只有图表上 10% 的 K线 在强劲突破期间，单向交易更合适。但其余时间，即使在这里买入（43/44 号K线）——如果你在更低位置加仓，你可以赚钱。即使在这里卖出（21 号K线）——如果你正确管理，你也能做到不错。你在更高位置加仓，第一次出场持平，对吧？
Playing the trading game
玩转交易游戏
So, the issue is not “Oh, my gosh, there are no opportunities to trade.” The issue is whatever style of trading the market is offering at the moment, are you comfortable doing it, and do you have the ability to stay in the game? I played tennis last night and my partner and I, we always play doubles. And we played against a pretty good team, and I did some things that made the other guys start to get flustered — one of the two other guys to get flustered — and he’s a really good player, and he could not stay mentally tough, and we ended up winning the second set really easily because he could not stay in the game; he could not keep his head in the game. And that’s true in any endeavor in life. The people who do really well are people who can maintain their focus and continue to do what they should be doing throughout the whole time.
所以，问题不是“天哪，没有交易机会了”。问题是，市场当前提供的任何交易风格，你是否能舒服地执行，以及你是否有能力继续留在游戏中？我昨晚打了网球，我和我的搭档总是打双打。我们遇到了一支相当不错的队伍，我做了一些事情，让对方开始感到不安——对方两人中的一人感到不安——而他是一位非常出色的球员，但他无法保持心理上的坚韧，最终我们轻松地赢得了第二盘，因为他无法继续留在比赛中；他无法保持头脑清醒地投入比赛。这在生活的任何领域都是如此。那些做得很好的人，是那些能够保持专注并在整个过程中持续做该做的事情的人。
I used to do eye surgery, and I’ve done — I don’t know — thousands and thousands of eye operations. Most of them are pretty short, but some of them are pretty long and have a lot of little steps. And if you’re going to do something like that, you have to stay in the game the whole time. Someone is depending on you. They’re just lying on their back and you’re cutting on their eyes, and they really need you to stay focused, and they really need you to do everything that you have to do. And their family needs you to do everything that you have to do. And it’s true of anything; if you’re in a courtroom as a lawyer, you have to stay focused and you have to keep your head in the game. Any kind of a job that you do — as an accountant, anything. If you run a business, you have to stay on top of your business. And trading is a business , and it’s like any other activity in that when you’re at work, you have to stay focused on what you’re doing, and you have to make good decisions, and you have to execute properly. And if, at any time, you feel for any reason, that you cannot do what you really need to be doing, then you don’t trade.
我以前做眼科手术，我做过——我不知道——成千上万例眼部手术。其中大部分时间很短，但有些手术时间很长，包含很多细小的步骤。如果你要做这样的事情，你必须始终保持专注。有人依赖你。他们只是平躺着，你在给他们做眼部手术，他们真的需要你保持专注，他们真的需要你完成所有必须做的事。他们的家人也需要你完成所有必须做的事。事实上，任何事情都是如此；如果你在法庭上当律师，你必须保持专注，保持头脑在状态里。你做的任何工作——无论是会计还是其他——如果你经营一家公司，你必须时刻关注你的业务。而交易就是一项生意，就像其他任何活动一样，当你在工作时，你必须专注于你所做的事情，做出正确的决定，并正确执行。如果在任何时候，你出于任何原因觉得自己无法完成真正需要做的事情，那么你就不应该交易。
Every day you hear me say, “I’m tired. I’m not sure that I’m as good as I need to be,” and in the final hour, I don’t like to trade. I have a friend who trades, and he prefers trading at the end of the day. Prefers trading at the end of the day because the market has given him a lot more information — and that’s fine, too.
你们每天都会听到我说：“我很累，我不确定自己是否足够优秀”，在最后的一个小时里，我不喜欢交易。我有一个朋友是交易员，他喜欢在收盘时交易。他喜欢在收盘时交易，因为市场给了他更多的信息——这也没问题。
I have another friend who only trades the first hour every day. I have another friend who trades the first two hours and then goes out and does activities for a couple hours and then comes back and trades the final two hours. I have friends who scalp; I have friends who only swing trade. And a big part of trading is finding a way to trade that suits your personality, and there are many, many ways to do it. And it’s a hunt, right? You’re trying to find what suits your personality. You have to be able to stay in your comfort zone if you’re going to be doing this for a career. That means you’re planning on doing it for many, many years, and you have to make sure that it’s a style that’s compatible with who you are.
我还有一个朋友，他每天只交易第一个小时。我还有一个朋友，他交易前两个小时，然后出去活动几个小时，再回来交易最后两个小时。我有朋友做短线交易；我有朋友只做波段交易。交易的一个重要部分是找到一种适合你个性的交易方式，而这种方式有很多很多种。这是一场寻找之旅，对吧？你在寻找什么适合你的个性。如果你打算把这作为职业，你必须能够待在自己的舒适区。这意味着你计划做这件事很多年，你必须确保这种风格与你这个人相兼容。
It goes far beyond IQ. There are so many other factors involved. You have to be able to stay focused ; you have to be able to do what you’re supposed to do when you’re supposed to do it; you have to be able to avoid denial. “Oh, my gosh, it can’t go down forever.” Yes, it can! “Oh, my gosh, it cannot go up forever.” Yes, it can, right? If the market is doing something that you think it should not do and you’re in a position in the wrong direction, you have to be able to get out and take the loss instead of saying, “Well, you know, maybe it will come back and I can get out with a smaller loss.” No, you can’t do that.
这远不只是智商的问题。还有许多其他因素在起作用。你必须能够保持专注；你必须能够在应该做的时候做你应该做的事情；你必须能够避免否认心理。“天哪，它不可能永远下跌。”是的，它可以！“天哪，它不可能永远上涨。”是的，它可以，对吧？如果市场正在做一些你认为它不应该做的事情，而你又处于错误方向的仓位中，你必须能够出局并承担损失，而不是说：“嗯，你知道，也许它会回升，我可以以更小的损失出局。”不，你不能这样做。
So, how long does it take you to get to the point when you can do all the right things often enough so that your wins are bigger than your losses? Realistically, I think if a person expects to accomplish all of that in less than two years, that’s not a realistic expectation. I think it takes at least a couple of years.
所以，你需要多久才能达到这样一个水平：你能经常做对的事情，让你的盈利大于亏损？现实地说，如果一个人期望在两年内完成所有这些，那是不现实的。我认为这至少需要几年时间。
Going for a Masters in trading?
你考虑攻读交易硕士吗？
You’ve heard of Master’s Degrees at universities — you can get Master’s in almost anything. You can get a Master in Political Science; you can get a Master’s Degree in City Administration; you can get a Master’s Degree in Electrical Engineering; you can get a Master’s Degree in Education. You can get a Master’s in Business Administration. Most of the Master’s Degrees take a couple years because it usually takes a couple years to master anything that is going to generate significant wealth. And that’s true with trading. And even after you get your Master’s Degree in Trading, it takes several more years to get really, really good.
你听说过大学的硕士学位——几乎任何专业都可以取得硕士学位。你可以获得政治学硕士；你可以获得城市管理硕士；你可以获得电气工程硕士；你可以获得教育硕士；你可以获得工商管理硕士（MBA）。大多数硕士学位需要几年时间，因为通常需要几年时间才能掌握能够创造显著财富的东西。交易也是如此。而且即使你拿到了交易硕士学位，仍需要再花几年时间才能变得真的非常出色。
So, one of my kids, she’s at Harvard Business School; she’s going to get her Master’s in Business Administration, and she’ll probably start — I don’t know how much money she’ll get paid when she gets (a) start. She’ll probably get paid $150,000 maybe, to start. But five years from now, she might be making five times that, and it’s because not only do you have to master the material, you have to get really good applying it to your career. So, it’s nice to have a Master’s in anything, but you become much more valuable after you are in your career for three, four, five, six years applying what you learned when you got your Master’s Degree, and I think that’s true of trading.
比如，我的一个孩子，她在哈佛商学院读书；她将获得工商管理硕士学位，然后大概率开始工作——我不清楚她拿到第一份工作时会得到多少薪水。她起薪可能是15万美元左右。但五年后，她的收入可能达到这个数的五倍，这是因为不仅要掌握知识，还要把它真正运用到职业中去。拥有任何硕士学位都很好，但只有在职业生涯里工作三、四、五、六年，把所学运用到实践中，你的价值才会大幅提升。我觉得交易也是如此。
Realistic expectations
现实的预期
So, realistically, I think anyone who is expecting to become consistently profitable in less than two years, I think it’s not realistic. And even once you become consistently profitable, you can consistently make money, but you can make vastly more money over the next several years if you keep working on your craft and keep getting better and better and better. So, to say “Will I get profitable in two years? Will I be able to quit my job in two years?” for most traders, I think that is unrealistic. I think they can start getting good in two years, but as far as making a lot of money, it will take more than two years. I think two years is enough to get you going, but it will take several more years after that if you want to become a superstar, you’re not going to do it in two years. It takes many, many years, and you keep getting better as time goes on.
现实地说，我认为任何期望在两年内就能实现持续盈利的人，都是不切实际的。即便你真的实现了持续盈利，也能稳赚钱，但如果你继续磨练自己的技艺，不断变得更好、更好、更好，未来几年你能赚到的钱会多很多。所以说“我两年能盈利吗？我两年能辞职吗？”对大多数交易者来说，这不太现实。我认为他们可以在两年内开始变得不错，但要赚大钱，仍然需要超过两年的时间。两年足以让你起步，但如果你想成为顶尖交易者，之后还需要再花几年时间，两年肯定做不到。这需要很多很多年，而且随着时间推移，你会一直在进步。
So I hope that answers the question.
希望这能回答你的问题。
Al Brooks
我是 Al Brooks，全球顶尖的价格行为（PA）交易教育者。
在交易中，我们需要关注市场的价格行为，识别多头和空头的动态。阳线和阴线是我们判断市场情绪的重要工具。回撤和突破是常见的价格行为模式，而突破回撤则需要我们特别注意，因为它可能预示着突破失败。
交易区间和窄幅交易区间是市场横盘整理的区域，而趋势则是价格持续上涨或下跌的方向。开盘趋势是我们判断当日市场方向的重要依据。信号K线和入场K线是我们入场交易的关键点。
内包线和外包线、十字线等K线形态，以及后续跟进和推进段，都是我们分析市场走势的重要工具。波段交易和短线交易是不同的交易策略，而始终持多或始终持空则是一种长期的交易策略。
等距运动、更高的低点、更低的高点、更高的高点和更低的低点，这些都是我们判断趋势强弱和反转的重要指标。均线、K线、楔形、通道、宽通道、头肩形态、双顶/双底、主要趋势反转、高潮（衰竭）、缺口等技术形态，都是我们分析市场的常用工具。
迷你标普（ES）和微型迷你是常见的交易品种，止损和目标位是我们控制风险和锁定利润的重要手段。风险回报比是我们评估交易机会的重要指标，而加仓（分批建仓）则是一种控制风险的策略。限价单和停损单是我们执行交易指令的常用工具。
机构是市场的重要参与者，概率和优势（edge）是我们评估交易机会的重要因素。在交易中，我们需要保持直接、实用、简洁的思维方式，就像在交易室里对学生讲话一样，不绕弯子。
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息