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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/market-correlation/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:16
Market correlation: Emini and bonds (or others) BPA trading room Q&A: June 16, 2016
市场相关性：迷你标普与债券（或其他品种）的关联性 BPA 交易室问答：2016年6月16日
Question: You mentioned the correlation between Bonds and the Emini. Is it worth watching for confirmation of the trend in the Emini or does it not have any effect on your trading? Audio duration: 5min 13sec
问题：您提到债券与迷你标普（Emini）之间的相关性。观察债券以确认迷你标普的趋势是否有价值，还是这对您的交易没有影响？音频时长：5分13秒
Market correlations 50/50
市场相关性为50/50。
I think one of the worst things you can do, is you trade one market — let’s say the Emini — and keep an eye on another market for some kind of advance notice of what’s going to happen in the Emini. Every now and then, you’ll hear some idiot on television say something like that, “Oh, I always watch Bonds to help me know when the Emini’s going to turn,” or “I always watch the VIX,” or “I always watch Crude Oil.” That’s garbage, right? That’s just total garbage. Or “I’ll watch the ticks or I’ll watch the NASDAQ.” It’s all garbage. 50 percent of the time, the Emini will make a turn before the other market that you’re watching; 50 percent of the time, the other market will make the turn first. I think there’s no significant correlation that would allow you to trade profitably.
我认为最糟糕的事情之一就是，你交易一个市场——比如迷你标普——同时又盯着另一个市场，希望从中提前获知迷你标普会发生什么。你偶尔会在电视上听到某些傻瓜说类似这样的话：“哦，我总是观察债券，以帮助我知道迷你标普何时反转”，或者“我总是观察VIX”，或者“我总是观察原油”。这都是垃圾，对吧？这完全是垃圾。或者“我会观察ticks，或者我会观察纳斯达克”。这全是垃圾。50%的时间里，迷你标普会在你观察的另一个市场之前反转；50%的时间里，另一个市场会先反转。我认为没有显著的相关性可以让你盈利地交易。
Use one chart to trade
使用一张图表进行交易
So I keep coming back to: You put up the chart in front of you; you look at the chart and don’t think about anything else — just think about this chart. There’s so much information on this chart that you do not need any other information. In fact, if you do use any other information, you’re processing too much information and you’ll probably mess up what you’re doing in this chart. So just keep coming back. Force yourself; just look at the five-minute chart; just look at one chart. Don’t look at any other charts; just look at one chart. There is so much information here. There are so many trades here. Don’t do anything else.
所以我一直强调：你把图表放在面前；你看着图表，不要想其他事情——只想着这张图表。这张图表上有太多信息，你不需要任何其他信息。事实上，如果你确实使用了其他信息，你就是在处理过多的信息，这可能会搞砸你在这张图表上所做的事情。所以，继续回到这里。强迫自己；只看5分钟图；只看一张图表。不要看其他图表；只看一张图表。这里有太多信息了。这里有太多交易机会了。不要做其他事情。
Correlation opposites hedging
相关性相反对冲
I know traders do all kinds of things, all kinds of correlations. Let me talk about my favorite idiot on television. If you’ve been in the room for a while, you’ll know what I’m talking about, right? He says so many stupid things that I’m just stunned that he’s still on television. Like he says, he never trades silver because it moves too much. That’s nonsense. You know, it moves the same as Gold. Maybe a little bit faster, you trade a little bit smaller. He trades Gold all the time and he says, “Oh, I never trade Gold in dollar terms,” so in other words, he never buys Gold futures or he never sells Gold futures unless he also does the opposite in a currency market.
我知道交易者会做各种各样的事情，建立各种各样的相关性。让我谈谈我最喜欢的电视上的傻瓜。如果你在房间里待了一段时间，你就会知道我在说什么，对吧？他说了很多愚蠢的话，我很惊讶他仍然在电视上。比如他说，他从不交易白银，因为它波动太大。这是胡说八道。你知道，它的波动与黄金相同。可能稍微快一点，你可以稍微小一点地交易。他一直交易黄金，他说：“哦，我从不按美元计价交易黄金”，换句话说，除非他在货币市场上也做相反的操作，否则他从不买入或卖出黄金期货。
So if he’s buying Gold and the Euro’s going down, he’ll say, “I’m buying Gold in Euro terms; I’m buying Gold and selling the Euro.” If you’re buying Gold with dollars, you’re basically buying Gold and selling dollars, right? It’s just total nonsense, to talk about how everything’s hedged — that’s not a hedge. If you buy Gold and sell Euro, that’s stupid. That means you have two separate trades going on at the same time and they’re independent of one another.
所以如果他买入黄金，而欧元下跌，他会说：“我是以欧元计价买入黄金；我买入黄金，卖出欧元。” 如果你用美元买入黄金，那基本上是买入黄金，卖出美元，对吧？ 说什么一切都是对冲的，这完全是胡说八道——这不是对冲。 如果你买入黄金并卖出欧元，那是愚蠢的。 这意味着你同时进行了两笔独立的交易，它们彼此独立。
Losing on a big short
大空头头寸亏损
I remember about a year or two ago when Gold was collapsing, he was short Gold and he made a ton of money on Gold, and I think he was long the Yen because he wanted to sell Gold in Yen terms. And he lost more on the Yen than he made on the Gold, and at the end he said, “Oh, I ended up only losing 7 percent on the trade.” Gold lost 50 percent of its value and he was short Gold, yet he ended up losing on the trade because he did something really stupid. He attached it to a Forex trade, which is totally dumb, right?
I记得大约一两年前黄金暴跌，他当时空头黄金，赚了大笔钱，我觉得他也是多头日元，因为他想用日元计价卖出黄金。结果他在日元上的亏损超过了他在黄金上的盈利，最后他说：“哦，我这笔交易其实只亏了7%。”黄金价值跌了50%，他却是空头黄金，但最终在这笔交易上亏损，因为他做了一件真的很愚蠢的事——把它挂在了一笔外汇交易上，这完全是傻行为，对吧？
Pairs trading — lunacy
对敲交易——疯狂之举
But anyway, every now and then you’ll hear people on television talk about pairs trades . “Oh, JPMorgan’s strong, Bank Of America’s weak. I’m going to buy JPMorgan and I’m going to sell Bank Of America.” Or “Coors is strong, Macy’s is weak. I’ll buy Coors, I’ll sell Macy’s.” To me, that’s way too complicated. If Coors is strong, I’m buying Coors. If JPMorgan is strong, I’m buying JPMorgan. I’m not going to worry about selling a weaker cousin of something in the same space. And that Gold stuff, it’s just lunacy. It’s just total lunacy. Yet, I got to say I would love to have him as my neighbor; I’d love to have him in my tennis group; I’d love to play golf with him; and he seems like a really nice guy. And that’s why they put him on television; he’s really likeable. But he says so many — just so many stupid things that, for me, it’s actually amusing to listen to him say these stupid things and everyone talks about him, the commodity king. And it’s just incredible. It’s really, really incredible. But I enjoy watching him because he’s a likeable guy.
但无论如何，你偶尔会在电视上听到人们谈论对敲交易。“哦，摩根大通很强，美国银行很弱。我要买入摩根大通，卖出美国银行。”或者“库尔斯很强，梅西百货很弱。我要买入库尔斯，卖出梅西百货。”对我来说，这太复杂了。如果库尔斯很强，我就买入库尔斯。如果摩根大通很强，我就买入摩根大通。我不会担心卖出同一领域中某个弱势的相关品种。至于黄金，那简直是疯了。完全是疯了。然而，我得说，我很希望他能成为我的邻居；我很希望他能加入我的网球小组；我很希望和他一起打高尔夫；他看起来是个很不错的人。这就是为什么他们让他上电视；他真的很讨人喜欢。但他说了太多——实在是太多愚蠢的话，对我来说，听他说这些愚蠢的话，然后大家都谈论这位“商品之王”，其实很有趣。这真是不可思议。真的，真的不可思议。但我喜欢看他，因为他是一个讨人喜欢的人。
Going up? Buy! Going down? Sell!
上涨？买！下跌？卖！
So back to your question. Would I watch Bonds for a heads up or would I watch Crude Oil or would I watch Forex markets to see if they start turning. And if the Emini has not turned, then expect the Emini to turn? No, you’re not the only guy on the planet to think about that. All the institutions know that as well. So if Bonds are turning and the Forex market is turning and the Emini is not turning, what should that be telling you? It should be telling you something’s wrong; it should not be telling you that the Emini’s going to turn next, right? It should be telling you that maybe the turns in the other markets are wrong and that they’re going to stop turning and then go back to what they were doing before. Way too complicated. I just put up one chart and all I care about is if it’s going up, “Oh, I better buy.” If it’s going down, “Oh, looks like I should sell.” And I don’t worry about anything else.
回到你的问题。我会关注债券市场以获取预警信号吗？还是会关注原油或外汇市场，看看它们是否开始反转？如果迷你标普还没有反转，那是否意味着我们可以预期它会反转？不，你不是地球上唯一有这种想法的人。所有机构都知道这一点。那么，如果债券市场在反转，外汇市场也在反转，而迷你标普却没有反转，这应该告诉你什么？这应该告诉你，有些地方出了问题；这不应该告诉你，迷你标普接下来会反转，对吧？这应该告诉你，其他市场的反转可能是错误的，它们会停止反转，然后回到之前的模式。太复杂了。我只看一张图表，我只关心它是否上涨，“哦，我最好买入。”如果它下跌，“哦，看起来我应该卖出。”我不担心其他任何事情。
So hope that answers your question.
所以希望这能回答你的问题。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于Al的在线日交易室的信息