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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/missing-swing-trades-measured-moves-spikes/ 生成时间: 2026-08-31 15:07
Missing swing trades BPA trading room Q&A: April 5, 2016
2016年4月5日波段交易缺失的BPA交易室问答
Question 1: I did not sell once between 48 and 58 since I constantly was thinking near support, trading range bottom on the left. Any advice on this? Video duration: 7min 33sec
问题1：我在48到58之间没有卖出过一次，因为我一直在想附近的支撑位，左侧的交易区间底部。对此有什么建议吗？视频时长：7分33秒
Big up, big down
大幅上涨，大幅下跌
So he did not sell between 43 and 58. That doesn’t bother me. You’ve got a pretty good reversal. Down big, up big. I mentioned at the time, it was also a bear channel, lower high, lower high, and that we could be channeling down and that bears would be selling, especially below the second entry short 42.
所以他在43到58之间没有卖出。这并不让我困扰。你有一个相当不错的反转。大幅下跌，大幅上涨。我当时提到，这同时也是一个空头通道，更低的高点，更低的高点，我们可能正在向下通道运行，空头会卖出，特别是在第二个入场做空点42以下。
But I don’t have a problem with not selling down here. You’ve got a higher low. It’s a bear channel, yes, so you can sell for a swing, stop above that and take a chance. But probably not going to go down all that far. It was a very tight bear channel, but you have to be able to use the correct stop. So if you sold anywhere through here, your stop is up here. And if you sell up here, maybe your stop is here; it’s probably better up here. I think it’s hard to structure a very strong trader’s equation . The probability is not all that good. Risk is relatively big, reward is relatively small. So I would not worry about that. Selling 54, possible exhaustive sell climax. 55, same thing. Possible measuring gap. I think if you’re quick to make decisions and manage trades, you could sell 54 close, 55 close. But I did not think it was going to fall all that much.
但我对不在这里卖出没有问题。你有一个更高的低点。是的，这是一个空头通道，所以你可以卖出做波段，止损设置在上方并冒险。但可能不会下跌得那么远。这是一个非常窄的空头通道，但你必须能够使用正确的止损。所以如果你在这里任何地方卖出，你的止损就在上方。如果你在上方卖出，也许你的止损在这里；可能最好设置在上方。我认为很难构建一个非常强劲的交易者方程。概率并不是很好。风险相对较大，回报相对较小。所以我不会担心这个。卖出54，可能是耗尽性卖出高潮。55，同样的情况。可能是测量缺口。我认为如果你能快速做出决策并管理交易，你可以在54收盘和55收盘时卖出。但我不认为它会下跌那么多。
Logical not to sell
不卖出是合理的
As far as advice on how to handle all this stuff, not selling this? I think it’s perfectly logical not to sell that. It’s not all that bearish. We’re still above a higher low. Yes, it’s a bear channel, but you’re selling low in the channel. If you want, you can say, “Okay, it’s a 10 bar bear micro channel. Maybe I’ll sell above a bar and put a stop above here or a stop above there,” if it’s really a small pullback bear trend. Pullbacks should only last one, two, or three bars, and they should not get above here. So theoretically you could trade small, put a stop up there, and take a chance that it becomes a small pullback bear trend.
关于如何处理所有这些情况，不卖出这部分，有什么建议吗？我认为不卖出这部分是完全合理的。这并不是特别看空。我们仍然处于一个更高的低点之上。是的，这是一个空头通道，但你在通道的低位卖出。如果你愿意，你可以说：“好吧，这是一个10根K线的空头微型通道。也许我会在一根K线上方卖出，并在这里或那里设置止损”，如果这确实是一个小回撤的空头趋势。回撤应该只持续一、二或三根K线，并且不应超过这里。所以理论上你可以小额交易，将止损设置在上方，并冒险让它成为一个小回撤的空头趋势。
But I don’t have any special advice about that. It’s really tough to structure a strong trader’s equation trade when the market looks like that. You’re selling low in a day that’s not all that bearish, or you’re buying and you’re in a very tight bear channel. That’s not very good either. It’s a scalper’s market, and you’ve got to be quick to make decisions. In general, I think traders will make more money if they stick to swings. I think that was a difficult swing to trade.
但我对此没有特别的建议。当市场看起来像那样时，构建一个强劲的交易者方程交易确实很困难。你在不那么看空的一天里在低位卖出，或者你在买入，而你处于一个非常窄的空头通道中。这也不太好。这是一个剥头皮的市场，你必须快速做出决策。总的来说，我认为交易者如果坚持波段交易，会赚更多的钱。我认为那是一个难以交易的波段。
Question 2: I only see measured moves after the gap is established. What is the best entry strategy based on that, or is it too late in the move?
问题2：我只在缺口形成后才看到等距运动。基于这一点，最好的入场策略是什么？还是说此时在行情中已经太晚了？
Never too late to enter swing trade
波段交易，入场永远不晚。
No, if you’re in a swing trade, it’s never too late to enter. Presumably, the first reversal will not get very far. If you see a measuring gap potential — 64 here, do you buy there? I don’t know. I’m not expecting a measured move up here; I’m expecting the gap to fill. Today was really not a good measured move day. You can see the best measured move was ‘open of the day’, low of the day, moved a measured move up. And then ‘high of the day’, open of the day, it moved a measured move down.
不，如果你做的是波段交易，入场永远不晚。可以假设第一次反转不会走得太远。如果你看到潜在的等距缺口——这里的64，你会在那里买入吗？我不知道。我并不期待这里出现向上的等距运动；我期待的是缺口回补。今天其实不是一个好的等距运动日。你可以看到最好的等距运动是“当日开盘价”到当日最低点，走了一个向上的等距运动。然后是“当日最高点”到当日开盘价，它走了一个向下的等距运动。
As far as measuring gaps on a trading range day, you have to assume every gap is going to close. We have a gap 8 above 2, it closed. Potential measuring gap 15, it closed. Potential measuring gap 34, it closed. Potential measuring gap here, it closed. Same here, it closed. You’ve got to be really quick to make decisions. I think it’s okay to buy the 53 close, I think it’s okay to buy the 60 close, sell the 34 close, sell the 15 close, buy the 7 close. But you’ve got to use wide stops and you’ve got to be quick to make decisions.
至于在交易区间日测量缺口，你必须假设每个缺口都会回补。8号K线在2号K线上方有一个缺口，回补了。潜在的等距缺口15，回补了。潜在的等距缺口34，回补了。这里的潜在等距缺口，回补了。这里也一样，回补了。你做决定必须非常快。我认为在53号K线收盘时买入是可以的，在60号K线收盘时买入也可以，卖出34号K线收盘，卖出15号K线收盘，买入7号K线收盘，都可以。但你必须使用较宽的止损，并且要快速做决定。
Trading range days
交易区间日
In general, if I think a day is a trading range day – like today, from the first bar of the day I thought it was a trading range day; I said it probably a hundred times today – in general, if it’s a trading range day, I’m going to be entering mostly with limit orders and mostly scalping for 1 point, sometimes 2 points. When there is a breakout that looks reasonably strong, 34 for the bears, 53 for the bulls, if I can get 2 points out of it, I usually exit at 2 points and then wait to see if it becomes a strong trend. If it becomes a strong trend, then I’ll swing part. But until it does become a strong trend, I’m going to assume that every big breakout, up and down, is going to fail.
一般来说，如果我认为当天是交易区间日——就像今天，从当天第一根K线开始，我就认为是交易区间日；今天大概说了一百次——一般来说，如果是交易区间日，我主要会使用限价单入场，而且大多是剥头皮，赚1个点，有时2个点。当出现一个看起来相当强劲的突破——比如34号K线的空头突破，53号K线的多头突破——如果我能从中赚到2个点，我通常会在2个点退出，然后再看看它是否会成为强劲的趋势。如果它真成为强劲趋势，那么我会拿一部分仓位做波段。但在它成为强劲趋势之前，我会假设每一个向上或向下的大突破都会失败。
But on a strong trend day, it’s never too late to enter. So if you see this, you can say “We’re already on a measured move; here’s the breakout point” – I don’t care. This is so strong, we’re probably going to go up for another measured move based upon the height of this breakout. So on strong trends, it’s never too late to enter.
但在强劲趋势日，入场永远不晚。所以如果你看到这种情况，你可能会说：“我们已经在等距运动中了，这里是突破点”——我不在乎。行情太强了，我们很可能会基于这次突破的高度，再走一个向上的等距运动。所以在强劲趋势中，入场永远不晚。
Question 3: How do you trade around big spikes like 53, 60, and 68?
问题3：像53、60和68这样的大幅尖峰K线，你如何在它们附近交易？
Immediately get in on spikes
立即在价格急剧波动时入场
When you see a big move like that, you immediately get in with the trend – I usually do. I’m usually anticipating, “Oh, 52. We may get a breakout on 53,” so I’m going to be prepared. Some of them, like 53, I think I bought and I may have gotten out breakeven. A lot of them I end up getting out breakeven. 60, I was okay. 68, I was very confident that we were going to get more down. Some of them are, I think, pretty high probability that there’s going to be follow-through. 6, 7 probably more up. 34, probably at least a little bit more down. 45, probably more up. 53, probably more up. 60, probably more up. 68, probably more down. But not a lot more.
当你看到这样的剧烈波动时，你应该立即顺势入场——我通常都会这么做。我通常会预判：“哦，52号K线，我们可能会在53号K线时突破”，所以我会做好准备。有些K线，比如53号，我认为我买入了，可能平仓离场了。我最终平仓离场的情况很多。60号K线，我还好。68号K线，我非常有信心，我们会继续下跌。我认为其中一些K线，后续跟进的概率相当高。6、7号K线可能继续上涨。34号K线，可能至少还会再跌一点。45号K线，可能继续上涨。53号K线，可能继续上涨。60号K线，可能继续上涨。68号K线，可能继续下跌。但不会跌太多。
I usually try to enter early. I often enter the market if I’m really, really early. If I’m 2 or 3 minutes into it, a lot of times I’ll enter with a limit order. I’ll put up a 1-minute chart, and if it’s a bull breakout, buy with a limit order below the low of the prior bar. If it’s a bear breakout, sell with a limit order at the high of the prior bar. But I do try to get in early.
我通常尝试尽早入场。如果我真的很早就入场，我经常会进入市场。如果我入场2或3分钟后，很多时候我会用限价单入场。我会打开1分钟图表，如果是多头突破，就在前一根K线的低点下方用限价单买入。如果是空头突破，就在前一根K线的高点用限价单卖出。但我确实会尽量早点入场。
Limit orders
限价单
On a lot of those trades, I’ve already gotten in and gotten out. Some of these I buy with limit orders here, and I’m getting out on the rally, or I’ll buy with limit orders when it’s starting to slow down here, and I’m getting out on the breakout. A lot of times I’m doing the opposite. I’m selling bull breakouts and buying bear breakouts, if I enter early enough with limit orders. That kind of trading, I think, it takes years. You have to do thousands of trades to get to the point when you can start reversing and scalping, quickly in, quickly out, and pocketing as many little 1 points as you can during the day.
在很多交易中，我已经入场并离场了。其中一些交易，我在这里用限价单买入，然后在反弹时离场，或者当价格开始在这里放缓时，我用限价单买入，然后在突破时离场。很多时候我做的是相反的操作。如果我能足够早地用限价单入场，我会卖出多头突破，买入空头突破。我认为这种交易方式需要数年时间。你必须进行数千次交易，才能达到能够开始反转和剥头皮的水平，快速入场，快速离场，在一天内尽可能多地获得1个点的利润。
It’s better if you can use a wide stop, 4 or 5 points and scale in, and then quickly make decisions. There were several times today when I entered – let’s say I bought, and I bought more 1 point lower or 2 points lower, and I decided it’s just not all that good, and I placed a limit order to get out at the average price of my trade, maybe with a 1 tick profit. So I did that two or three times today when I entered, scaled in, and I thought the reversal was just too strong, and I just tried to get out breakeven on the trade. On most of those, I entered again a bar or two later, in the same direction or in the opposite direction. I just keep going all day long.
如果你能使用宽止损（4或5个点）并加仓，然后快速做出决策，那会更好。今天有几次，我入场了——比如说我买入了，然后在1个点或2个点更低的价格又买入了，我判断情况不是很好，于是我下了一个限价单，以我的平均交易价格离场，可能获得1个点的利润。所以今天我入场了两次或三次，加仓了，我认为反转太强了，我只是试图在交易中平仓离场。在大多数情况下，我会在一两根K线后再次入场，方向相同或相反。我整天都在持续操作。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
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