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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/nike-stock-chart-review/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:45
BPA trading room Q&A: December 23, 2015
BPA交易室问答：2015年12月23日
Can you talk about the Nike five-minute chart?
你能谈谈耐克的5分钟图吗？
Video duration: 7min 40sec
视频时长：7分40秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
如有需要，你也可以在Al的YouTube频道上观看此视频。
Video transcript—Nike stock chart review
视频文字稿——耐克股票图表回顾
Nike—not an easy day’s trading
耐克——今天不是一个容易交易的日子
Yeah. Nike was an interesting chart today. So was Freeport-McMoRan , it was way oversold and just gapped up and rallied all day–so that was an easy one to trade. Nike was the opposite; gapped up to a new all-time high and then sold off. So if you’re watching Nike, you see a gap up strongly to a new all-time high and then how many bars do you need before you conclude that something’s wrong? And something’s obviously wrong with the first bar, and then when you see that second bar closing on its low like that, it’s Always In Short. You got to be thinking that it’s going to fall for at least a measured move based upon the height of those two bodies, so it’s probably going to fall at least two more dollars, okay? Sell the close, sell the close, sell the close.
是的。耐克的图表今天很有趣。Freeport-McMoRan也是如此，它严重超卖，然后直接跳空上涨，全天反弹——所以这是一个容易交易的品种。耐克则相反；跳空上涨至历史新高，然后被抛售。所以，如果你在观察耐克，你会看到它强势跳空上涨至历史新高，然后你需要多少根K线才能得出结论，认为出了问题？很明显，第一根K线就有问题，然后当你看到第二根K线以这种方式收在低点时，它就是始终持空的信号。你必须认为它至少会根据这两根K线实体高度进行等距下跌，所以它可能会再下跌至少两美元，好吗？卖出收盘价，卖出收盘价，卖出收盘价。
Trading range price action
交易区间价格行为
Okay, doji–might get a trading range soon. Outside down, not good for the bulls. Looks like sell the close again. Doji might be starting to enter a trading range. I think it’s probably still sell the close, stop above this bar, maybe above that bar, but looks like we’re starting to get trading range price action – a doji, then tails, and then another doji.
好了，十字线——可能很快会形成交易区间。外包下跌，对多头不利。看起来又要卖收盘价了。十字线可能开始进入交易区间。我认为可能还是要卖收盘价，止损设在这根K线上方，也许在那根K线上方，但看起来我们开始出现交易区间的价格行为——一根十字线，然后影线，再然后又是一根十字线。
Sell climax at 13, but it’s also a breakout. More follow through, still sell the close. Now, we’re getting consecutive sell climaxes, climax, climax, climax, climax, so it’s probably going to start to go sideways soon. Decent looking bull bar, but it’s also in a very tight bear channel. To me, I usually do not buy with a stop above that bar. It could easily test the moving average. If I’m looking to buy, I’m going to wait to see if you start to reverse up strongly and then buy. Or start to look to buy below bars. But to buy with a stop above the bar in a channel that’s falling so steeply, I think that’s not a very good buy.
13号K线是空头高潮，但同时也是一次突破。后续跟进力度更大，继续在收盘价卖出。现在，我们连续看到空头高潮，高潮、高潮、高潮、高潮，所以价格可能很快就会开始横盘整理。这是一根形态不错的阳线，但它也处于一个非常窄幅的空头通道中。对我来说，我通常不会在止损设置于该K线上方时买入。价格很可能去测试均线。如果我想买入，我会等待看看价格是否开始强势反转向上，然后再买入。或者开始考虑在K线下方买入。但在一个如此陡峭下跌的通道中，以止损设置于K线上方的方式买入，我认为这不是一个很好的买入机会。
Limit orders
限价单
Okay, now we have a second entry buy here, so it’s a better buy. Now, I’m thinking in terms of limit orders, okay? Or stop — or wide stops, right? To me, I think you can buy above 21, but I would use a really wide stop. We have a potential measuring gap, 12 low, 18/19 high. Is it a measuring gap from the high of the day? Are we going to get our measured move down from there? I doubt it, but we might get a measured move down from here.
好，现在我们有第二个买入入场点，所以这是更好的买入机会。现在，我在考虑限价单的问题，明白吗？或者停损单——或者宽幅的停损，对吧？对我来说，我认为你可以在21以上买入，但我会使用非常宽的止损。我们有一个潜在的测量缺口，12号K线的低点，18/19号K线的高点。这是从当天高点开始的测量缺口吗？我们会从那里开始获得等距下跌吗？我对此表示怀疑，但我们可能从这里开始获得等距下跌。
All right. So if you’re buying above this, your stop has to go at least something below that, so you have to be trading really small. And also, what’s your goal? Your goal is a conversion of a sell climax into a trading range, which means you’re just looking for scalps. The range of the day so far is, what, $7, right? So a scalp might be 50 cents or so, and you have to risk probably at least a couple dollars. So not a strong buy, and I’d only take that buy if I was using a wide stop well below here, and I would only take it if I were willing to scale in lower. Not a good bar for the bulls, okay? A scalp, I would buy that low and try to make 30, 40, 50 cents, but this is not doing what the bulls want it to do. This is bad, okay? And now you got a small Low 2 short. Yes, tight trading range, but to me it makes me less interested in buying right now.
好了。如果你在上方买入，你的止损必须至少设置在下方某个位置，所以你必须交易得非常小。此外，你的目标是什么？你的目标是将卖方高潮转化为交易区间，这意味着你只是在寻找短线机会。到目前为止，当天的波动范围是多少？7美元，对吧？所以短线交易可能赚50美分左右，但你可能至少要承担几美元的风险。所以这不是一个强劲的买入信号，我只会在使用远低于此处的宽止损时才考虑买入，而且我只会在愿意在更低价位加仓时才这样做。这对多头来说不是一个好K线，明白吗？短线交易，我会在低位买入，试图赚取30、40或50美分，但这并不是多头想要的结果。这很糟糕，明白吗？现在你有一个小幅低点2的做空机会。是的，交易区间很窄，但对我来说，这让我对现在买入的兴趣减少了。
Okay, outside down, it looks like we’re going lower. Another outside down. We’re starting to get trading range price action, so traders will start buying below bars, below 21, below any of these bars, but they probably have to risk at least a couple dollars, and they have to be willing to scale in.
好的，外包阴线，看来要往下走。又是一根外包阴线。我们开始出现交易区间价格行为，于是交易者会在K线下方买入，比如低于21号K线，低于这些K线中的任何一根，但他们可能得承受至少几美元的风险，而且必须愿意加仓。
Now, we have seven bars, eight bars down without a bull body, but they made money buying below 17. They probably will make money buying below 21, but you need a wide stop, micro double bottom—might bounce. No micro double bottom, small reversal bar, sell climax. To me, I think we’re going to bounce. I don’t think we’re going to turn into a bull trend, but I think we’ll enter a dead money situation. Whenever you have a relentless selling like this, you usually do not get a bull trend, but you usually get a trading range, which is a dead money situation. Here, we’re down $8, $9 on the day, so the range might be big enough for scalping 50 cents, maybe a $1 if you’re lucky, but you need a wide stop.
现在，我们有七根、八根向下的K线，没有多头实体，但他们在17下方买入时赚了钱。他们在21下方买入时可能也会赚钱，但你需要设置宽止损，微型双底可能反弹。如果没有微型双底，出现小反转K线，就是卖方高潮。我认为我们会反弹。我不认为我们会转为多头趋势，但我认为我们会进入一个死钱状态。每当出现这样的无情抛售时，你通常不会得到多头趋势，但你通常会得到一个交易区间，这就是死钱状态。这里，我们今天已经下跌了8美元、9美元，所以区间可能足够大，可以剥头皮50美分，如果你幸运的话，可能1美元，但你需要设置宽止损。
Willing now to buy below bars
现在愿意在K线下方买入
More trading range price action, so a little spike and channel here. To me, I am willing to start to buy below bars using a wide stop. You can probably sell around the moving average betting on dead money, a tight trading range. Double top bear flag, you can sell there. You can buy the new low below here, just scalp. And that’s how it ended up. Daily chart – just a trading range, middle of a trading range. We are, but you basically do not want to see the market gap to a new all-time high and then sell off like that. So yes, a lot of it might be — this is the weekly chart, year-end profit taking. Traders saying, “Wow, what a gift at the end of the year. I’m going to take it,” but it’s also three pushes up.
更多交易区间价格行为，于是这里出现了小幅尖峰和通道。就我而言，我愿意用宽止损开始在K线下方买入。你大概可以在均线附近卖出，押注死钱，也就是一个窄幅交易区间。双顶熊旗，你可以在那里卖出。你可以在这儿下方买入新低，只是剥头皮。这就是它的最终走势。日线图——仅仅是一个交易区间，处于交易区间中间。我们在此，但你基本上不希望看到市场跳空到新的历史高点然后像这样下跌。所以是的，很多情况可能是这样——这是周线图，年末获利了结。交易者会说：“哇，年末这真是份大礼，我要拿走它。”但同时也是三次向上推进。
Monthly chart, very climactic. Bull breakout in a parabolic channel with one, two, maybe three pushes up — probably not much more up – I know on Fast Money they’ve been talking about what a great stock Nike is, and it might be. But there’s no way I’m going to buy a parabolic buy climax. I’m sitting on some cash and I’m looking to buy stuff, Nike is on my list of things to buy, but I am not buying up here, right? Maybe a pullback to the moving average, which is, what, 25 percent below. That, I might buy, but I’m not buying a parabolic buy climax, spike and parabolic channel.
月线图，非常高潮。多头在抛物线通道内突破，有1次、2次，甚至可能是3次的上涨推动——可能不会再有更多上涨了——我知道《Fast Money》一直在讨论耐克是多么伟大的股票，它可能确实是。但我绝不会买入一个抛物线买入高潮。我手头有一些现金，我正在寻找买入的机会，耐克也在我的买入清单上，但我不会在这里买入，对吧？也许会回撤到均线，那是多少？比当前低25%。那我可能会买入，但我不会买入一个抛物线买入高潮、急涨和抛物线通道。
Comparable Emini price action
可比的Emini价格行为
It’s very similar to the five-minute chart in the Emini today. So, spike and a parabolic channel. This is usually what follows, not a bull trend. And the same is true with that Nike monthly chart, so we’re probably going to go sideways for 10 bars. 10 bars is a year, right, so there’s no rush to buy if we’re going to be sideways for a year. The odds are very high that I’ll be able to buy 10 or 20 percent below where we are right now.
这今天的Emini五分钟K线图非常相似。于是出现了尖峰和抛物线通道。这通常是后续走势，而不是多头趋势。同样，那张耐克月线图也是这样，所以我们可能会横盘10根K线。10根K线相当于一年，也就是说如果将来会横盘一年，就没有必要急着买入。我有很大概率能够在当前价位下方10%或20%的水平买入。
Merry Christmas and closing comments
圣诞快乐和结束语
All right, I hope everybody has a very Merry Christmas, a good holiday. I’m not trading tomorrow. I’m off with the family for the next several days. I’ll be back on Monday.
好了，我希望大家有一个非常快乐的圣诞节，假期愉快。我明天不交易。我接下来几天要和家人在一起。我将在星期一回来。
Next week, I used to hate the week between Christmas and New Year’s because so much of the time is in tight trading ranges, but over time I’ve learned to actually like it because it’s a good opportunity to work on discipline, to practice not buying high, to practice not selling low And to practice entering with limit orders — just working on discipline. So even if you play in the NBA, you still have to practice, right? It doesn’t matter how many years you’ve traded, there’s still things that you want to see regularly so that you get practice with them, and next week, to me, is a good practice week. We’re probably going to get a lot of this and this, and I don’t want to be selling that, and I don’t want to be buying this, I want to be looking to do the opposite. Okay. I hope everybody has a good weekend.
下周，我以前讨厌圣诞节和新年之间的那一周，因为大部分时间都处于窄幅交易区间内，但随着时间的推移，我学会了喜欢它，因为这是锻炼纪律的好机会，练习不高价买入，练习不低价卖出，以及练习用限价单入场——总之就是锻炼纪律。所以，即使你是NBA球员，也还是需要练习，对吧？无论你交易了多少年，总有一些东西你希望定期看到，以便练习它们，对我来说，下周就是一个很好的练习周。我们可能会看到很多这样的情况，我不想卖出那个，也不想买入这个，我想做相反的操作。好了。我希望大家周末愉快。
Al Brooks
我是 Al Brooks，全球顶尖的价格行为（PA）交易教育者。
在交易中，我们需要关注市场的价格行为，识别多头和空头的动态。阳线和阴线是我们判断市场情绪的重要工具。回撤和突破是常见的价格行为模式，而突破回撤则需要我们特别注意，因为它可能预示着突破失败。
交易区间和窄幅交易区间是市场横盘整理的区域，而趋势则是价格持续上涨或下跌的方向。开盘趋势是我们判断当日市场方向的重要依据。信号K线和入场K线是我们入场交易的关键点。
内包线和外包线、十字线等K线形态，以及后续跟进和推进段，都是我们分析市场走势的重要工具。波段交易和短线交易是不同的交易策略，而始终持多或始终持空则是一种长期的交易策略。
等距运动、更高的低点、更低的高点、更高的高点和更低的低点，这些都是我们判断趋势强弱和反转的重要指标。均线、K线、楔形、通道、宽通道、头肩形态、双顶/双底、主要趋势反转、高潮（衰竭）、缺口等技术形态，都是我们分析市场的常用工具。
迷你标普（ES）和微型迷你是常见的交易品种，止损和目标位是我们控制风险和锁定利润的重要手段。风险回报比是我们评估交易机会的重要指标，而加仓（分批建仓）则是一种控制风险的策略。限价单和停损单是我们执行交易指令的常用工具。
机构是市场的重要参与者，概率和优势（edge）是我们评估交易机会的重要因素。在交易中，我们需要直接、实用地分析市场，像在交易室里对学生讲话一样，不绕弯子。
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息