本文为 MEPA 导入的中英对照学习资料，原文归原作者及原站所有；中文译文尚未逐篇校对。页面日期为本站收录日期，原资料生成时间不代表原文发布日期。
原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/perfect-trade-setups/ 生成时间: 2026-08-29 15:34
BPA trading room Q&A: August 17, 2015
BPA 交易室问答：2015年8月17日
About the 15-minute chart, I find watching the inside bar breakup to be reasonable with a 15-minute chart, what do you think? Audio duration: 8min 54secs
关于15分钟图，我觉得用15分钟图观察内包线突破是合理的，你怎么看？音频时长：8分54秒
A perfect trade setup on the 15min chart?
15分钟图上的完美交易设置？
So he’s saying, like, bar 6, maybe it’s a reasonable buy. Bar 17. I think it doesn’t matter what chart you trade, and if I get rid of the session breaks and the time scale and the price scale, you will not be able to tell whether this is a 15-minute chart or a 5-minute chart. I guess you would because of the gaps down, you just count and say, “Oh, okay, every 26 bars is a 15-minute bar.
所以他说的是，比如6号K线，也许是个合理的买点。17号K线也是。我认为你交易什么图表并不重要，如果我去掉交易时段间隔、时间刻度和价格刻度，你根本分辨不出这是15分钟图还是5分钟图。我想你还是能分辨的，因为有向下的跳空缺口，你只要数一下就说：“哦，好吧，每26根K线就是一根15分钟K线。”
But in general, the price action is the same on the 5-minute chart, the 10, the 15, the 14-minute chart, the 27-minute chart, the 31-minute chart — pick any timeframe — a tick chart, a volume chart. The price action is the same on all of them, and some computers are trading them. Some timeframes, others are on others — one-minute chart. It doesn’t matter, right? And sometimes, it will seem like for several days in a row one particular pattern will work very well on one particular timeframe, and then it will stop working and you start losing money all the time. And then you’ll see that pattern working well on another timeframe — an hour chart or a 5-minute chart.
但总的来说，价格行为在5分钟图、10分钟图、15分钟图、14分钟图、27分钟图、31分钟图——随便选哪个周期——以及tick图、成交量图上都是一样的。价格行为在所有图表上都是一样的，而有些电脑在交易这些图表。有些在某个周期上，另一些在别的周期上——比如1分钟图。这没关系，对吧？而且有时候，你会觉得连续几天某个特定形态在某个特定周期上表现得非常好，然后它就不灵了，你开始一直亏钱。然后你会看到那个形态在另一个周期上表现良好——比如小时图或5分钟图。
Everyone’s in search of a God, everyone wants to believe, everyone is in search of hope and they’re in search of perfection. They want that perfect trade where they know if they take this trade, they’re going to make a lot of money, and everyone wants that, and if it were true — if a perfect trade did exist, every institution would quickly discover it, and then no institution would take the other side, and all of a sudden the perfect trade would not work.
每个人都在寻找神，每个人都想相信，每个人都在寻找希望，他们在寻找完美。他们想要那种完美交易，只要做了这单就知道会赚很多钱，每个人都想要这个。如果这是真的——如果完美交易确实存在——每家机构都会很快发现它，然后就没有机构愿意做对手方了，突然之间，这个完美交易就不灵了。
For you to be able to buy above 6, or to buy above 17, there has to be an institution willing to sell to you. If that institution knows the odds are really high he’s going to lose money, he’s not going to sell to you. And if there are no sellers at this price, your perfect trade is not going to work. There would be no one willing to sell. They’ll be willing to sell up here [above 24 higher high], but you have to buy it to get it up there, and there aren’t going to be any sellers here so it’s not going to go up there.
你想要在6号K线上方做多，或者在17号K线上方做多，就必须有机构愿意卖给你。如果该机构知道亏钱的概率非常高，他就不会卖给你。如果在那个价格没有卖家，你的完美交易就不会成立。没有人愿意卖。他们会在上面这里（24号更高高点的上方）愿意卖，但你必须买入才能把它推上去，而这里不会有任何卖家，所以价格也到不了那里。
But perfect trade setups are out there—right?
但是完美的交易设置确实存在——对吧？
Basically your question is a variation of the perfect trade setup: does the inside bar pattern work well, especially while on the 15-minute chart? And my belief is that it does not work any better on the 15-minute chart than it does in any other timeframe — although sometimes for several days in a row, it will work really well on a certain chart — 5-minute chart, 15-minute chart. Remember, all the high-frequency trading firms use their algorithms for two days, five days, and then they switch to a different algorithm because whatever was working for the past two, three, or four days is working less well now, and something else is working more well now. So at times, it seems like a particular pattern works very well, and it does, and it might work very well for another day or two, but that will probably be the extent of it. It will stop working. The computers will detect that something’s working really well and eventually, they will not take the other side of the trade, and too many of them will start taking the same side that you’re taking, and the trade cannot work unless someone is willing to do the opposite, and it will quickly stop working.
基本上，你的问题只是“完美交易形态”的一个变体：内包线形态到底好不好用，尤其是在15分钟图上？我的看法是，它在15分钟图上并不会比其他任何时间周期更好用——尽管有时候连续几天，它在某个特定图表上（比如5分钟图、15分钟图）表现非常好。记住，所有高频交易公司都会把自己的算法用两到五天，然后换一套不同的算法，因为过去两三天或三四天有效的东西，现在变得没那么有效了，而另一些东西现在变得更有效。所以有时候，某个特定形态看起来确实非常好用，也确实好用了，而且可能接下来一两天还会继续好用，但大概也就到头了。它就会失效。电脑会察觉到某个东西运行得非常好，最终它们不会再站到对手那边，而且会开始有太多人站到你这一边；交易要成立，必须有人愿意做反手方，所以它很快就会失效。
The Golden Goose syndrome
金鹅综合征
So I would not think about “Did I find a goose laying golden eggs? Did I find something really special that nobody else knows?” I wouldn’t think of it like that. I would think, “Is the context good? Is the setup good? Can I structure a trade with a good stop and a good profit target?” Doesn’t matter [about] the timeframe. Can I structure a trade where the math makes sense and not worry about finding one particular setup that is really reliable — because you will not find it. You might find it for a day or two, but then you trade it on the third day and the fourth day, and you lose money and you gave back more than what you won on day one and day two, and you wonder “How could that possibly be? It was such a great setup.” And it was a great setup for a day or two, and then it stopped being a great setup and some other setup was great, like doing the opposite of what you’re doing. So instead of buying above that great-looking, 15-minute inside bar, it became more profitable to sell above that great looking, 15-minute inside bar.
所以我不会去想“我是不是找到了一只下金蛋的鹅？我是不是找到了一个别人都不知道的特别厉害的东西？”我不会这么想。我会想：“背景好不好？形态好不好？我能不能构建一笔止损和止盈目标都合理的交易？”跟时间周期没关系。我能不能构建一笔数学上说得通的交易，而不是挖空心思找一个特别可靠的特定形态——因为你找不到。你可能一两天里找得到，然后你第三天、第四天继续用，就亏钱了，把第一天和第二天赚的还回去更多，然后你心想：“这怎么可能？这形态明明超好啊。”没错，它在一两天里确实是超好的形态，然后它就不再是最好的了，取而代之的是另一种形态很好，比如和你正在做的相反的操作。所以，与其在那根漂亮的15分钟内包线上方买入，不如变成在那根漂亮的15分钟内包线上方做空更赚钱。
Perfect trade setups—a sure way to lose money!
完美交易形态——稳亏钱的方法!
So the takeaway is: Don’t worry about perfect trades and don’t go thinking that something works especially well on one timeframe. It doesn’t. It will work well on any timeframe some of the time. But you never know in advance when it will, nor do you know how long it will. So I would not be thinking in terms of perfect setups. I think that is a sure way to lose money, looking around for that perfect setup. I still occasionally see articles and websites that basically talk about perfect setups and perfect trades, and whenever I see that I know the person who wrote it is either dishonest or stupid. And since there are so many dishonest people out there, in general, I assume the person is dishonest.
所以要点是：别追求完美交易，也别以为某个方法在某个时间周期上会特别好用。它不会。它任何时间周期上都可能有时表现不错，但你永远不会提前知道它什么时候会这样，也不知道它会持续多久。所以我不会去想什么完美形态。我认为四处寻找那种完美形态，是一条必亏之路。我还是偶尔会看到一些文章和网站，基本上都在讲完美形态和完美交易，每当我看到这些，我就知道写这东西的人要么不诚实，要么愚蠢。而因为这世上不诚实的人太多，所以一般来说，我会假定那人是骗子。
Making money is hard work. Everyone wants it to be easy. They want a savior, or protector, right? A perfect setup, right, where they know that, yeah, they might lose sometimes, but they’re never going to lose much and they’re never going to lose often, but they will win a lot and they’ll win often. And they’ll have something that will work, not just for today and tomorrow, but forever. They want a perfect setup. And what they’re saying is, “I’m afraid of all of this. This is hard work. I don’t know that I can do the work. It’s hard to do it every minute of every day for year, after year, after year,” but that’s what you got to do. And you can do it, right?
赚钱是苦差事。每个人都想让它变简单。他们想要一个救世主，或者保护者，对吧？一个完美形态，对吧，让他们知道，嗯，他们有时候可能会亏，但永远不会亏很多，也永远不会亏得很频繁，而是会大赚特赚，经常赚。他们会拥有某个东西，不仅今天明天有效，而且永远有效。他们想要一个完美形态。他们其实在说：“我害怕这一切。这太难了。我不知道自己能不能做得到。年复一年，日复一日，每时每刻都要做这件事，太难了。”但这就是你必须做的事。而你做得到，对吧？
Just do the work—that’s all it needs
只管下功夫——交易需要的就是这个。
If you put the work in — there’s nothing magical to trading — there’s nothing magical to making money trading, right? You just got to do the work, and — I occasionally get e-mails from people who are doing extremely well. When I say “extremely well,” I mean you can just put the number of zeros that you want after the number. The trader’s doing extremely well. They often ask me, “What do I do next?” and I say, “Nothing. You’re doing what you’re supposed to be doing. You’re consistently making money,” and it can get boring, but the key is to stay in the zone, continue to do what you’re doing and not worry about doing a whole bunch of other things, making a lot of changes, right? If you’re Tiger Woods and you got a great swing, don’t change it six times. If you’re Usain Bolt and you’re running whatever — 9.59, 100 meters — I would not be out there changing a lot of things. I would just try to continue to do what I’m doing as well as I possibly can do it and not worry about going to another level.
只要你下功夫——交易没有什么魔法——靠交易赚钱也没什么魔法，对吧？你就是得下功夫，而且——我偶尔会收到一些人的邮件，他们做得极其出色。我说“极其出色”的意思是，你可以随便在数字后面加你想加的几个零。这位交易者做得非常好。他们经常问我：“我接下来该做什么？”我说：“什么都不用做。你正在做你该做的事。你在持续稳定地赚钱。”这样做可能会变得无聊，但关键是要保持状态，继续做你正在做的事，不要老想着做一大堆别的事情，做很多改变，对吧？如果你是泰格·伍兹，你有一个很棒的挥杆，别去改它六次。如果你是尤塞恩·博尔特，你已经跑出了9.59秒的100米，我不会再去改变很多东西。我会尽量继续把自己正在做的事做到最好，而不是整天想着再上一个层次。
And that’s life as a trader. You get a bunch of tools and they work reasonably well, and if you’re one of those people who sends me an e-mail telling me, “Al, I made $4,000 yesterday,” or “I made $25,000 yesterday,” or “I made $15,000 this week,” and you ask me, “Al, what do I do to make more?” I’m telling you right now what the answer is: Just keep doing what you’re doing, stay humble , don’t start thinking that you can overpower the market and outsmart the market. Just continue what you’re doing, and don’t get greedy, and stay comfortable, and have fun, and be happy. And it’s magical. It can totally change your life. But don’t get bigger than yourself. Be humble. Say, “Hey, I’m just a guy or I’m just a gal, and I’m doing it, and it’s working, and I don’t have to go to some next level. I can just keep doing what I’m doing day after day. I like doing it year after year, and that’s my career.” And that’s the reality. There’s nothing beyond that, so it’s not as if you can keep adding, and adding, and adding, and adding, and getting greater, and greater, and greater, and richer, and richer, and richer. You don’t have to. All you have to do is — you have a basic set of tools and use them consistently well. You don’t have to be hitting homeruns. All you have to do is get up there and just put the ball in play. Just try to keep hitting singles, and that’s all you have to do. And if you’re able to do that, you’ll do just fine.
这就是交易者的生活。你得到一堆工具，它们运作得相当不错，如果你是那种给我发邮件说“Al，我昨天赚了4000美元”或者“我昨天赚了25000美元”或者“我这周赚了15000美元”的人，然后你问我：“Al，我要怎么做才能赚更多？”我现在就告诉你答案：继续做你正在做的事，保持谦逊，不要开始觉得自己能 overpower 市场、比市场更聪明。就继续做你正在做的事，不要贪婪，保持舒适，享受乐趣，保持开心。这很神奇。它完全可以改变你的人生。但不要膨胀到超过自己。保持谦逊。对自己说：“嘿，我只是个普通人，我在做这件事，它有效，我不需要去追求什么更高的层次。我只需要日复一日地继续做我正在做的事。我喜欢年复一年地做下去，这就是我的事业。”这就是现实。除此之外没有别的了，所以并不是说你可以不断地加码、加码、再加码，然后变得越来越伟大、越来越富有。你不需要那样。你只需要做的——就是拥有一套基本的工具，并且持续稳定地用好它们。你不需要打出全垒打。你只需要上场，把球打进场内。试着持续打出安打就够了，这就是你全部要做的。如果你能做到这一点，你就会做得非常好。
So that is the end of my long answer to the question about a perfect setup, or an especially good setup. Okay, I hope everybody has a good night.
那么，这就是我对关于完美形态或特别好的形态这个问题的长篇回答的结尾。好了，希望大家今晚愉快。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 在线日内交易室的信息