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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/psychology-confidence-mistakes-fear/ 生成时间: 2026-09-03 21:07
Lacking confidence, making mistakes, and fear BPA trading room Q&A: October 13, 2015
缺乏信心、犯错和恐惧——BPA交易室问答：2015年10月13日
Question: I was able to read the price action pretty well today, but have a hard time trusting my read. Do you ever have the same problem, and do you have any suggestions? Video duration: 8min 10sec
问题：我今天对价格行为的解读还不错，但很难相信自己的判断。你是否也有同样的问题？你有什么建议吗？ 视频时长：8分10秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
如果需要，你也可以在 Al 的 YouTube 频道上观看这段视频。
Trading psychology: In a gray fog
交易心理：在灰色迷雾中
Well, you know, that goes back to my comments that when you’re trading. You live in a gray fog, and you start to see something clearly but you’re really never sure that it’s as clear as you want it to be. But that’s life as a trader. Everything is in a gray fog, and you start to see some shapes and you start to see some forms. But you’re never really certain what you’re seeing. You think you might be seeing something that you recognize, but you’re never really certain.
这让我想起我之前说过的，当你在交易时，你就像生活在灰色的雾中，你开始清晰地看到一些东西，但你永远无法确定它是否像你希望的那样清晰。 但这就是交易员的生活。 一切都笼罩在灰色的雾中，你开始看到一些形状和形态。 但你永远无法确定你看到的是什么。 你认为你可能看到了你认识的东西，但你永远无法确定。
Compensating for lack of clarity
弥补缺乏清晰度的问题
Remember, 10 percent of the bars every day are in a breakout like this [B7] or like this [B40]. Here [B70], we had maybe more than 10 percent. But most days, about 10 percent of the bars are in a breakout, and you should only trade in that direction. 90 percent of the bars are either in a channel, which will become a trading range, or in a trading range. And in those cases, you can pretty much buy or sell at any time. If you manage your trades correctly, you can scale in, use wide stops and scale out properly. So that’s how you compensate for that lack of clarity. You only really have clarity during the breakouts, so what do you do during bar 3? If you’re doing anything, you’re buying. What do you do during bar 40? If you’re doing anything, you’re selling. What are you doing during bar 70, 71? If you’re doing anything, you’re selling.
记住，每天有10%的K线会出现这样的突破形态，比如[B7]或[B40]。在[B70]这里，我们可能有超过10%的K线出现突破。但大多数日子里，大约10%的K线会出现突破，你只应该顺着这个方向交易。90%的K线要么处于一个将成为交易区间的通道中，要么处于交易区间内。在这种情况下，你几乎可以在任何时候买入或卖出。如果你正确地管理你的交易，你可以分批加仓，使用宽止损，并适当地分批减仓。这就是你如何弥补缺乏明确性的问题。你只有在突破时才真正有明确性，那么在3号K线时你该做什么？如果你要做点什么，那就是买入。在40号K线时你该做什么？如果你要做点什么，那就是卖出。在70号、71号K线时你在做什么？如果你要做点什么，那就是卖出。
Probability rules
概率至上
It’s clear that that’s what you do. The probability is higher than 60 percent; it’s probably 70 percent that the best way to make money is to trade in the direction of the breakout. During the rest of the day, you’re in that gray fog where everything is 40 to 60 percent. If you’re reasonably confident, you’re 60 percent certain. If you’re really “I’m not confident at all,” you’re 40 percent confident. Pretty much everything during the rest of the day is 40 to 60 percent, any buy, any sell. And if you prefer high probability, you have to be able to know where your stop is, and it’s better to trade in the direction of Always In.
很明显，这就是你要做的事情。 突破方向交易是赚钱的最佳方式，其概率高于60%，可能达到70%。 在其他时间里，你处于一个灰色的迷雾中，一切都处于40%到60%的概率范围内。如果你有合理的信心，你有60%的把握。 如果你真的“完全没有信心”，你只有40%的信心。 几乎整天，任何买入或卖出操作的概率都在40%到60%之间。 如果你喜欢高概率，你必须知道你的止损点在哪里，并且最好按照“始终持仓”的方向进行交易。
Trading Always In
始终持仓交易
So let’s say on bar 42 close you decide, okay let’s say somewhere in here, Bar 46 close. You’re deciding where the high probability trade is. Well, first you have to decide Always In Long or Short . Probably still Always In Short. Next, you have to decide on where your stop is. Maybe up here [above B39/40], maybe — maybe if you want a tight stop here [above B46]. So then you say, “Okay, I’m going to sell the 46 close, so I’ll sell below 47, and I’ll put a stop here or here. And if I’m able to, I’ll add on higher, either with a limit order or wait for a rally and then sell below a bear bar, like below 67 or below – we didn’t get much of a rally here.” But that would be the general idea. That’s how you can increase your probability in an environment where the probability is 40 to 60 percent. You scale in.
假设在42号K线的收盘时，你决定，好吧，比如说在46号K线的收盘时。 你正在决定哪里是高概率的交易机会。 首先，你必须决定是始终持多还是始终持空。 可能还是始终持空。 接下来，你必须决定你的止损点在哪里。 也许在这里（高于B39/40号K线）上方，也许——如果你想要一个紧的止损点，就在这里（高于B46号K线）。 然后你说：“好吧，我要卖出46号K线的收盘价，所以我会在47下方卖出，我会在这里或这里设置止损。 如果我能做到，我会在更高价位加仓，要么用限价单，要么等待反弹，然后在空头K线下方卖出，比如在67下方或——我们这里没有得到太多的反弹。” 但这就是基本思路。 这就是你如何在概率只有40%到60%的环境中提高你的概率。 你分批建仓。
And it’s just practice, okay?
这只是练习而已，明白吗？
And another question: Al, did you ever have the same problem?
还有一个问题：Al，你是否遇到过同样的问题？
Making same trading mistakes over and over
不断重复同样的交易错误
I’m assuming it’s in reference to the question I just answered. I’ve had every problem — every problem that you can imagine. Every problem that you’ve had, I’ve had it, plus I’ve had dozens that you’ve never encountered but you will if you trade long enough. I’ve done this close to 30 years now, and I’ve screwed up in every conceivable way. And I’m really smart, so I’ve been able to come up with all kinds of ways that most people would never think of, and I’ve screwed up in all kinds of special ways. But I’ve screwed up in every way. And I’ve done the same mistake sometimes dozens of times over the course of years before I finally decided that I was an idiot and I had to stop.
我假设这指的是我刚刚回答的问题。 我遇到了所有你能想象到的问题——所有问题。 你遇到的每一个问题，我都遇到过，此外，我还遇到过你从未遇到过但如果你交易足够久就会遇到的数十个问题。 我已经做了这件事近30年了，我以各种可能的方式搞砸了。 我很聪明，所以我想出了各种各样的方法，这些方法是大多数人永远不会想到的，我也以各种特殊的方式搞砸了。 但我以各种方式搞砸了。 有时，我在几年的时间里犯了同样的错误数十次，直到我最终意识到自己是个白痴，必须停止。
So whenever someone asks me about something and they ask, “Have you ever had the same problem?” the answer is a very strong “Yes.” And I probably made the mistake many more times than you, and I probably made the mistake much worse than you. But that’s — you know, I’m being honest. So yes — at this point in my career, I am not surprised by anything, and every time I see the potential to do something stupid, you know, I think back “Yeah, I used to do that.”
所以，每当有人问我某个问题，并问我“你有没有遇到过同样的问题？”时，我的回答是非常坚定的“是的”。我可能犯的错误比你多得多，而且我犯的错误可能比你更严重。但这就是——你知道的，我很诚实。所以，是的——在我职业生涯的这个阶段，我对任何事情都不感到惊讶，每当我看到有可能会做些愚蠢的事情时，我都会想“是的，我以前也这样做过。”
So yeah, yeah. To answer your question, yes, I’ve had any problem that you can possibly imagine.
所以，是的，是的。为了回答你的问题，是的，我遇到过你能想象到的任何问题。
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
“疯狂就是不断重复做同一件事，却期待不同的结果。”
— Albert Einstein
—— 阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦
Okay, question: Buying below a bar obviously means buying a great bear bar at point of entry. Any idea how to overcome the fear to enter in such a moment?
好了，问题：在K线下方买入显然意味着在入场点买入一根非常好的阴线。有什么方法可以克服在这种时刻入场的恐惧吗？
Limit order trading fear
限价单交易恐惧
So he’s saying this: If you’re buying below bar 50, right, you’re getting filled on bar 55 at a point when it’s a very good-looking bear bar. If you’re buying below bar 55, at the time you’re filled it’s a bear bar and it’s growing, and you’re afraid it could end up looking like 70 or like 40 and having a lot of follow through.
所以他想表达的是：如果你在50号K线下方买入，对吧，你会在55号K线被成交，而那时它看起来是一根非常好的阴线。如果你在55号K线下方买入，在你被成交时，它是一根阴线，并且正在增长，你担心它最终可能会看起来像70号K线或40号K线，并伴随大量后续跟进。
To me, what I’d do is I’d just use a stop, and if I get stopped out, that’s how when I get stopped out. I’m usually willing to scale in, and use a wide stop and that increases my probability, and you can see traders who were buying lows here below 45, below 50, below 55, below 61, right, they certainly were not happy by 70 close, 71 close, and they may have just exited there. But some of them said, “Screw it. We’ve had so much trading range price action today. It’s unlikely the gap below 61 will stay open. I’ll just buy more two points lower, and try to get out at the 60, 61 low”. So as long as you understand what the market is trying to do, you have a much better chance of being able to do the right thing and not getting scared into doing the wrong thing. In other words, you have a much better chance of making money than losing money.
对我来说，我会直接使用止损，如果被止损出局，那就是我被止损出局的方式。我通常愿意分批加仓，并使用宽止损，这会提高我的概率。你可以看到，那些在45以下、50以下、55以下、61以下买入低点的交易者，在70收盘、71收盘时肯定不开心，他们可能就在那时离场了。但其中一些人说：“算了。今天我们经历了这么多的区间价格行为。61以下的缺口不太可能继续存在。我会在低两个点的位置再买入，并尝试在60、61的低点出局。”因此，只要你理解市场在试图做什么，你就有更大的机会做正确的事情，而不是被吓得去做错误的事情。换句话说，你赚钱的可能性远大于亏钱的可能性。
Limit order trades not for beginners
限价单交易不适合新手
However, when traders are starting out, I do not think they should be buying the 50 low, the 55 low, the 61 low, the 72 low. But after you’ve traded a long time, you start to see stuff and it’s totally the opposite of what you think. You know, you hear people saying, “Oh, you got to sell below 45; you got to sell below 50,” and to me, that’s dumb, right? If you’re going to be selling in a market that’s most likely converting into a trading range or a bear channel, it’s better to be selling above bars instead of below bars. And it takes a long time to make that adjustment. Everything’s counterintuitive. You got to think about if I’m a beginner, where would I be getting in, where would I be getting out.
不过，我认为新手交易者不应该去买入50号低点、55号低点、61号低点或72号低点。但当你交易了很长时间后，你开始看到一些东西，它们与你的想法完全相反。你知道，你会听到有人说：“哦，你必须在45以下卖出；你必须在50以下卖出”，在我看来，这很愚蠢，对吧？如果你要在可能转变为交易区间或空头通道的市场中卖出，最好在K线上方卖出，而不是下方。做出这种调整需要很长时间。一切都是反直觉的。你必须考虑，如果我是新手，我会在哪里入场，我会在哪里离场。
Understand your emotions — trade logically
理解你的情绪——理性交易
And if I’m a beginner, I’m losing money, and therefore the experts are doing the opposite of me and they’re making money. So how can I get to the point psychologically of doing the exact opposite of what feels natural? And it takes time to get to that point, but once you’ve lost often enough and lost enough money, you start to realize that what feels natural based upon experiences of everyday life is the exact wrong thing to do when you’re a trader. And it doesn’t matter if you’re trading commodities, stocks, trading houses, trading cars, trading anything. It’s still the same process. And it is a rational behavior, and if you’re really good and objective, you can make a lot of money buying or selling anything. You just have to understand human behavior and what is logical, and get away from what is emotional. What is emotional is, “The market is falling, I better sell below lows.” What is logical is, “Aah… I’ve seen a lot of trading range price action today. I bet if it falls below lows, bears will take profits and bulls will buy for a scalp.” And it takes a while to be able to look at it logically and figure out what is likely to happen.
如果我是新手，我在亏钱，这意味着专家们在做与我相反的事情，他们正在赚钱。那么，我该如何在心理上达到做与直觉相反的事情的境界呢？达到这一点需要时间，但当你亏损足够多次，亏损足够多钱后，你就会开始意识到，基于日常生活经验的直觉在交易时是完全错误的。无论你是交易商品、股票、交易房屋、交易汽车，还是交易任何东西，这个过程都是一样的。这是一种理性的行为，如果你足够优秀和客观，你可以通过买卖任何东西赚很多钱。你只需要理解人类行为和逻辑，远离情绪化。情绪化的表现是：“市场正在下跌，我最好在低点以下卖出。”而逻辑的表现是：“啊……我今天看到了很多交易区间的价格行为。我猜如果价格跌破低点，空头会获利了结，多头会买入进行短线交易。”要能够理性地看待问题并判断可能发生的情况，需要一段时间。
All right, hope everybody has a good night.
好了，希望大家都有一个美好的夜晚。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息