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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/second-leg-traps-in-trading-range-usdjpy/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:53
BPA trading room Q&A: September 28, 2015
BPA 交易室问答：2015年9月28日
I had a situation this morning at 09:00 EDT (06:00 PDT), on the 5 minute Dollar versus Yen Forex chart. It was late in the bear trend, price formed a trading range and a higher low… we had a bull breakout, but a lower high, and at the 60 minute moving average we had bad follow-through. Is this a low probability event, or am I not understanding price action?
今天早上09:00 EDT（06:00 PDT）时，我在5分钟美元兑日元外汇图表上遇到了一种情况。当时处于空头趋势的后期，价格形成了一个交易区间和更高的低点……我们出现了多头突破，但高点更低，在60分钟均线处后续跟进表现不佳。这是低概率事件，还是我没有理解价格行为？
Video duration: 3min 4sec
视频时长：3分4秒
Video transcript
视频文字稿
Bull breakout but poor follow-through
多头突破，但后续跟进不佳
Here’s the 5 minute Dollar-Yen. And he said at 6 o’clock – so here’s the 6 o’clock bar. We have a bull breakout , but a lower high. And at the 60 minute moving average we had bad follow-through. I have an idea what the rest of the question is going to be like. Let me go back to the question.
这是5分钟美元兑日元图表。他提到6点钟的情况——所以这是6点钟的K线。我们出现了多头突破，但高点更低。在60分钟均线处，后续跟进表现不佳。我大致知道这个问题的其余部分会是什么样子。让我回到问题上来。
“It was late in the bear trend, price formed a trading range and a higher low…” Okay. Trading range higher low, triangle… basically a triangle… and had a strong bull breakout right here. But just as the breakout was about to continue and make a higher high — above this high, it then turned around again and the bear trend resumed. “… Is this just a low probability event, or am I not understanding price action?”
“当时处于空头趋势的后期，价格形成了一个交易区间和更高的低点……”好的。交易区间有更高的低点，三角形……基本上是三角形……并且在这里出现了强劲的多头突破。但就在突破即将继续并形成更高的高点——高于这个高点时，它又再次反转，空头趋势恢复。“……这是只是低概率事件，还是我没有理解价格行为？”
Low, or high probability?
低概率，还是高概率？
Yeah, I have a couple thoughts about that. I think this is a higher probability, but let me go to real-time. So we’re in a broad bear channel or trading range. We have a double bottom pullback, so two pushes down, basically a triangle. But unless we get above this high, the best the bulls get is a trading range. We have one leg up, pull back, second leg up. And if you’ve been in the room for any length of time, you’ve heard me talk about second leg traps in trading ranges. A second leg trap means you have a first leg up, a pullback, and then a second leg up that looks fantastic — except it does not get above the top of the trading range. And until it gets above the top of the trading range, you have to be suspicious that it might be a trap, a second leg trap, a strong second leg up in a trading range .
是的，我对这个问题有几点想法。我认为这是一个概率更高的情况，但让我看看实时情况。我们目前处于一个宽幅空头通道或交易区间内。我们有一个双底回撤，也就是说有两个向下的推动，基本上形成了一个三角形。但除非我们突破这个高点，否则多头能获得的最佳结果就是一个交易区间。我们有一个向上推进段，回撤，然后第二个向上推进段。如果你在交易室待过一段时间，你应该听过我谈论过交易区间内的第二腿陷阱。第二腿陷阱意味着你有一个第一腿向上，一个回撤，然后一个看起来非常棒的第二腿向上——但它并没有突破交易区间的上沿。在它突破交易区间上沿之前，你必须怀疑这可能是一个陷阱，一个第二腿陷阱，一个交易区间内强劲的第二腿向上。
And then you see this bar and you say, “Darn, that’s terrible.” This might be a second leg trap. With that kind of bad follow-through and the market not getting above the prior lower high, I think, to me it’s a problem. It’s a big, big problem for the bulls. And to me, I would not have bought the close of that bar, and once I see this, I start thinking “I’m in trouble,” and look what happened next. Okay? So the bulls have bought this close. What do they think when they see the next bar? They think, “Oh, this is… that’s terrible. Al talks about this stuff all the time: that you need a good follow-through bar, and here I have a bad follow-through bar and a lower low. You know what, I’m going to try to get out break-even. Maybe I’ll try to buy more 10 pips below and try to get out with a profit on my second entry, break even on my first.” Well, all the bulls have bought this close. Guess what? When they see that next bar, they say, “Oh, this is terrible. I’m going to try to get out break-even.” They place a limit order to get out here, so when the market gets there you have a lot of bulls selling.
然后你看到这根K线，会说，“该死，这太糟糕了。” 这可能是第二腿陷阱。后续跟进那么差，而且市场甚至没能站上之前的更低高点，我觉得——对我来说，这就是个问题。对多头来说，这是个大问题，甚至是非常大的问题。而我看来，我根本不会在那根K线收盘时买入，看到这种情况我就会想‘我麻烦了’，接着看看接下来发生了什么。好了？所以多头买进了这根K线的收盘价。当他们看到下一根K线时会怎样想？他们会想，‘哦，这……太糟糕了。Al一直在说这些事情：你需要一根好的后续跟进K线，而我现在却有一根后续跟进不好的K线，还出现了更低的低点。你知道的，我会试图在这里盈亏平衡出场。也许我会在下方10个点处再买一些，希望通过第二次入场获利，第一次入场盈亏平衡。’ well，所有的多头都在这根K线收盘时买入了。猜猜看？当他们看到下一根K线时，他们说，‘哦，这太糟糕了。我要试图在这里盈亏平衡出场。’ 他们在这里放置一个限价单来平仓，于是当市场回到这个价位时，就会有大量多头卖出。
Bulls can be bears too
多头也可以变成空头
What happens to a market when all the bulls are selling? The bears are always selling, right? The bulls are supposed to be buying. But now, you got bulls selling so what do you think’s going to happen? … … Okay?
当所有多头都在卖出时，市场会发生什么？空头一直在卖出，对吧？多头本应是买入的。但现在，多头却在卖出，你认为会发生什么？…………好的？
So I think that answers your question. I hope it does. I hope I was clear.
所以我认为这已经回答了你的问题。我希望如此。我希望我已经讲得很清楚。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
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