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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/silver-market-analysis/ 生成时间: 2026-09-03 20:30
Silver market analysis question BPA trading room Q&A: July 25, 2016
白银市场分析问题 BPA 交易室问答：2016年7月25日
Question 1: Will you talk about silver? Video duration: 5min 21sec
问题1：你会谈论白银吗？视频时长：5分21秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
你也可以在需要时在 Al 的 YouTube 频道上观看这个视频。
Silver market follows gold
白银市场跟随黄金走势。
Silver, as most traders know, tends to go hand-in-hand with gold. Monthly chart of silver. Now, this is actually fairly interesting. A fairly tight channel. Is this reversal probably a major reversal or a minor reversal? 20 gap bar short. This is the monthly chart of silver. 20 gap bar short, and then we have a gap bar here. This is probably a minor reversal, which means the upside is probably limited on the monthly chart.
正如大多数交易者所知道的，白银往往与黄金同步波动。这是白银的月线图。现在，这其实相当有趣。一个相当窄的通道。这次反转可能是主要反转还是次要反转？20号缺口阴线做空。这是白银的月线图。20号缺口阴线做空，然后我们这里又出现了一根缺口K线。这可能是一个次要反转，这意味着在月线图上，上行空间可能有限。
Momentum up on silver weekly chart
白银周线图上的动能向上。
Weekly chart, still pretty good momentum up. Parabolic buy climax, one, two, three. If we start to get three or four consecutive bear bars – if we get this, three or four consecutive bear bars closing on their lows, traders will believe that we’re going to pull back, maybe to prior higher lows here or all the way here. Here on the monthly chart, the reversal up is probably a minor reversal. So traders will switch to lower timeframe charts, weekly chart, daily chart, and look for sell signals.
周线图上，上涨动能仍然相当强劲。抛物线买入高潮，一、二、三。如果我们开始出现三四根连续的阴线——如果出现这种情况，三四根连续的阴线收盘于低点，交易者会认为我们将回撤，可能回撤到此前的更高低点，或者一路回撤到这里。在月线图上，向上反转可能是一个小幅反转。因此，交易者会转向更低时间框架的图表，如周线图、日线图，寻找卖出信号。
But to me, this does not look like a strong enough wedge bottom to be a major reversal. And this rally is pretty good, but I think the bulls probably need a pullback and then a higher low, and then a reversal up. So similar to what I talked about today on the 5-minute chart of the Emini.
但对我来说，这看起来并不像一个足够强劲的楔形底部，能构成重大反转。这次反弹相当不错，但我认为多头可能需要一次回撤，然后形成更高的低点，再向上反转。这与我今天在迷你标普5分钟图上谈到的情况类似。
Buy climax on silver daily chart
白银日线图上的买入高潮
Daily chart of silver, big, big buy climax, possible endless pullback, the bulls see a double bottom. I would not be position trading it until after the FOMC report. You can see everyone has lost interest over the past month. They’re concerned about that report.
白银日线图，巨大的买入高潮，可能出现无休止的回撤，多头看到双底形态。在FOMC报告发布之前，我不会进行仓位交易。你可以看到，过去一个月里，每个人都失去了兴趣。他们担心那份报告。
But silver is similar to this. A wedge bottom and a very tight channel, so probably the first reversal up is minor. Silver has three pushes up, just like the 5-minute Emini has three pushes up. So it probably needs a couple legs down, and at that point it can form a major trend reversal.
但白银的情况与此类似。楔形底部和非常窄的通道，所以第一次向上反转的幅度可能较小。白银有三次向上推动，就像5分钟迷你标普有三次向上推动一样。所以它可能需要几次向下的推进段，到那时它才能形成主要趋势反转。
Follow up silver analysis BPA trading room Q&A: August 9, 2016
后续白银分析，BPA交易室问答：2016年8月9日
Question 2: Do you think the wedge on the silver weekly today looks similar to the wedge from 2007-2008?
问题2：您认为今天的白银周线图上的楔形与2007-2008年的楔形是否相似？
Trade small if market volatile
如果市场波动剧烈，请小仓位交易
Let me put up silver. I virtually never trade silver, but my favorite idiot talks about silver every now and then, saying that he’s afraid to trade it because it’s so volatile. That’s just total nonsense. You just trade a smaller position.
让我把白银的图表放上来。我几乎从不交易白银，但我最喜欢的傻瓜经常谈论白银，说他不敢交易它，因为它太波动了。这完全是胡说八道。你只需要交易更小的仓位。
Consecutive buy climax
连续买入高潮
Weekly chart. Consecutive buy climaxes here, here, here. Higher low, major trend reversal, bull breakout, breakout, pullback. Now it’s this same chart. Is this the start of a bull trend, or is it a test of lower highs? Is this the buy vacuum test of lower highs?
周线图。连续出现买方高潮，这里、这里、还有这里。更高的低点，主要趋势反转，多头突破，突破，回撤。现在还是这张图。这是多头趋势的开始，还是对更低高点的测试？这是买方真空对更低高点的测试吗？
It is, but will it stop the rally or will it keep going up? I don’t know. He’s comparing it to 2007-2008, where we had a buy climax and a big reversal down. That to me is one, two, three in a bull trend. This is right now a bear rally trying to become a bull trend. He’s probably talking about this in here and not one, two, three here. So in here, maybe three pushes up. No, right here. One, two, three, somewhere in here. He’s saying is this the same as this?
确实如此，但它会阻止反弹还是会继续上涨？我不知道。他把它与2007-2008年相比，那时我们经历了买入高潮和大幅下跌反转。对我来说，这在多头趋势中是一、二、三。这现在是一个空头反弹，试图转变为多头趋势。他可能是在这里谈论这个，而不是在这里的一、二、三。所以在这里，可能有三次上推。不，就在这里。一、二、三，就在这个位置。他问的是，这与那次是否相同？
Strong bull breakout – beware
强势多头突破 – 谨慎对待
I look at it differently. To me I look at this as a consecutive buy climax in a bull trend. Higher risk of a couple legs down. Here, I look at this as a bear rally, a minor reversal, and the bulls probably will need a major reversal – which means that we go sideways and then test back down and maybe form a higher low or a lower low, even though this is strongly bullish right there.
我的看法不同。我认为这是在多头趋势中连续出现的买入高潮。下跌几波的风险较高。这里，我认为这是一次空头反弹，一个小幅反转，多头可能需要一个主要反转——这意味着我们会横向整理，然后回测下跌，并可能形成更高的低点或更低的低点，尽管当前情况强烈看多。
Even though it’s a very strong bull breakout, you have to be suspicious that it’s just a bear rally. I don’t think we’ve had a major trend reversal on the weekly chart. Obviously on the daily chart, we’ve had its major, but on the weekly chart it’s minor, and on the monthly chart it’s nothing. It’s just moving average gap bars in a bear trend. I think that the upside is probably limited and that we’re going to have to test back down.
尽管这是一个非常强劲的多头突破，但你必须怀疑这只是一次空头反弹。我认为我们在周线图上还没有出现重大趋势反转。显然，在日线图上，我们已经出现了重大反转，但在周线图上，这只是小幅反转，而在月线图上，这根本不算什么。这只是空头趋势中的均线缺口K线。我认为上行空间可能有限，我们可能需要再次回落测试。
Bull breakout of bear channel
多头突破空头通道
Monthly chart, it’s a bull breakout of a bear channel. Arguably a wedge, maybe a couple legs up, one, pullback, two. But moving average gap bars in a bear trend. I think the picture is confusing and not especially bullish. I would not be buying up there.
月线图上，这是多头突破空头通道的情况。可以说是一个楔形，可能有几波上涨，一波回撤，二波上涨。但这只是空头趋势中的均线缺口K线。我认为图表情况混乱，并不特别看好多头。我不会在那里买入。
And here, strong breakout daily chart but a second entry short. Maybe we’ll get a second leg up from this, but I’m personally not buying up here. We’re at a resistance area. We were sideways here for about a year, so traders sold at this price, they sold, sold, sold. At this price, 22, 24, traders sold a lot several years ago. They’ll probably sell in that general area again.
这里是日线图上的强劲突破，但这是第二次做空入场。也许我们会从这里获得第二波上涨，但我个人不会在这里买入。我们处在阻力区域。我们在这里横盘震荡了大约一年，所以交易者在这个价格卖出，他们卖出、卖出、卖出。在这个价格，22、24，交易者在几年前大量卖出。他们很可能会在那个大致区域再次卖出。
So if I were trading silver, I’d be looking to buy a pullback, a deep pullback, maybe down to here, maybe down to here. So spike and parabolic channel. That might take 6 months to get there.
所以，如果我交易白银，我会寻找买入回撤的机会，一个深度的回撤，可能跌到这里，也可能跌到这里。所以是尖顶和抛物线通道。这可能需要6个月才能实现。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
Postscript: Silver weekly chart today
附言：今天的白银周线图
FYI: Silver weekly chart at February 10, 2017
参考：2017年2月10日的白银周线图
Could not resist looking up, and posting current silver weekly chart. Traders can follow up on Al’s analysis of last July and August. Pretty good, eh? Richard, BTC Admin
忍不住要查看并发布当前白银周线图。交易者可以参考阿尔去年7月和8月的分析。相当不错，是吧？理查德，BTC管理员
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于阿尔的在线日间交易室的信息