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How much per month can a swing trader make?
一位波段交易者每月能赚多少钱？
Trading room audio extract — Monday September 14, 2020
交易室音频片段 — 2020年9月14日星期一
Updated September 26, 2020 – rerecorded audio and transcript.
更新日期：2020年9月26日 — 重新录制音频和转录。
Question: How much percent return per month do you think a swing trader can make?
问题：你认为一位波段交易者每月能获得多少百分比的回报？
General guideline
一般指南
This is Al Brooks, and I’d like to talk a little bit today about how much a swing trader should expect to be making once he is successful.
我是Al Brooks，今天我想谈谈成功后，一位波段交易者应该期望赚取多少钱。
I want to give you some general guidelines. There was a guy – his name was Peter Steidlmayer. I spent a week with him back in the 1980s. He was a professional trader, and he made a lot of money trading grains, corn, soybeans, back in the ’80s. He told me that he was trying to make about 2% a day as a professional trader, and he became very wealthy. He is also the guy who developed the Market Profile indicator , and it’s still used today. He made money from that as well. For him, making 1% or 2% a day was a reasonable goal, and I’m sure he did it for many years.
我想给你一些一般性的指导。有一位叫彼得·斯泰德迈尔（Peter Steidlmayer）的人，我在20世纪80年代与他一起度过了一周。他是一位专业交易者，在20世纪80年代用谷物、小麦、大豆进行交易，赚了大量钱。他告诉我，他作为专业交易者每天试图赚取约2%的利润，并因此变得非常富有。他也是市场 профи（Market Profile）指标的开发者，这个指标至今仍被使用。他也从中赚了钱。对于他来说，每天赚取1%或2%的利润是一个合理的目標，我相信他多年来一直保持着这个目标。
I think most traders should risk about 1% on any trade, maybe 2%. Therefore, if you have a $3,000 account and you’re risking 1% a day, you’re risking $30 for a beginner trader. You’re not going to get rich. I understand that. But if you have a $3,000 account, your goal is to first turn it into a $20,000 account and not to get rich right away. So for example, if you’re trading Micro Eminis with a $3,000 account and you’re trying to make $50 a day, you’re on a very good path.
我认为大多数交易者应在任何交易中风险约1%，或2%。因此，如果你有一笔3,000美元的账户，每天风险1%，对于初学者来说，你每天风险30美元。不会让你致富。我明白这一点。但如果你有一笔3,000美元的账户，你的目标是先将其转化为20,000美元的账户，而不是立即致富。例如，如果你用3,000美元的账户交易微型迷你标普（Micro Eminis），并试图每天赚取50美元，你正在走上良好的道路。
Multiple trading accounts
多个交易账户
Most traders should be thinking about trying to make a half percent a day, maybe 1% a day, risking 1% a day. Once you’ve been doing it for a long time and you have become profitable, you’ll tend to open multiple accounts, accounts with multiple brokers. Then with each broker, you’ll have different reasons to trade the different accounts. That’s what I have. I have a whole bunch of accounts, and when you add it all up, I have a pretty good trading account, or a pretty good collection of trading accounts. I never risk – I say I never risk; I don’t know for sure with my day trading, but it would be unusual for me to risk more than 1% of my trading capital on any one trade, and for that matter, on any one day.
大多数交易者应该考虑每天努力赚半个百分点，也许每天1%，每天承担1%的风险。一旦你做了很长时间并且已经稳定盈利，你往往会开多个账户，在多家经纪商开户。然后对每个经纪商，你会有不同的理由去交易不同账户。我就是这样。我有一大堆账户，把它们加在一起，我有一个相当不错的交易账户，或者说相当不错的一组交易账户。我从不冒险——我是说我从不冒险；对日内交易我不敢说得绝对，但任何单笔交易冒超过我交易资金1%的风险，对我来说都很少见，而且就任何一天来说也是如此。
Because of that, because I’m not risking all that much, I don’t worry about anything. But it took years to get to this point. That is not what a trader’s going to have when he starts out. He’s not going to have a lot of accounts with good size accounts. Most traders, when they start out, have one account, and they don’t have a lot of money. They cannot risk that much. This is especially true if you’re worried about money. You cannot be that flexible.
正因为如此，因为我承担的风险并不大，所以我什么都不担心。但达到这一点花了很多年。这不是交易者刚开始时能拥有的状态。他不会有多个规模不错的账户。大多数交易者刚开始时只有一个账户，而且资金不多。他们不能冒那么大风险。如果你担心钱，这一点尤其如此。你不能那么灵活。
Four points a day
每天4个点
I think as a general rule, a really good day trader will be making about 1% a day, maybe 2% a day. Let’s say you have a $50,000 account and you’re making 4 points a day. That’s $200 in the Emini, and that’s just under a half percent a day. If you try to make consistently 4 points a day on average, that’s under just a half a percent a day. And if you’re a pretty good swing trader, you’ll probably make more, especially when the bars are as big as they have been lately. Right now, scalps are 5 points and swing trades are 10 to 20 points. A few months ago, a scalp was 1 or 2 points and a swing trade was maybe 4 points.
我认为一般来说，真正优秀的日内交易者每天大约赚1%，也许2%。假设你有一个5万美元的账户，你每天赚4个点。在迷你标普（ES）里就是200美元，略低于每天半个百分点。如果你试图平均每天稳定赚4个点，那还不到每天半个百分点。如果你是相当不错的波段交易者，你可能会赚更多，尤其是最近K线一直这么大的时候。现在，剥头皮交易是5个点，波段交易是10到20个点。几个月前，一次剥头皮是1到2个点，一次波段交易可能是4个点。
If you were to take one swing trade in the Micro Emini – for example, if you bought above Bar 2 today and you bought above Bar 3 today – you could hold it for 10 or 20 points, and there’s your $50 if you’re trading a Micro Emini. So if you had a $3,000 account and you traded a single Micro Emini, when the bars are big like they are today and if the legs are big like they are today, then you made more than your 1% today.
如果你在微型迷你上做一笔波段交易——例如，如果你今天在2号K线上方买入，今天又在3号K线上方买入——你可以持有10到20个点，如果你交易微型迷你，那就有50美元。所以如果你有一个3000美元的账户，你交易一手微型迷你，当K线像今天这样大，推进段像今天这样大的时候，那么你今天赚的就超过了你账户的1%。
Actually, a fundamental question: what’s a reasonable percentage if you’re a swing trader? I think a reasonable minimum goal is a half percent. I think it would be hard to consistently make more than 2%, especially early in your trading career. But somewhere in that window, a half percent to 2%, half percent to 1%.
实际上，一个根本性问题：如果你是波段交易者，合理的百分比是多少？我认为合理的最低目标是半个百分点。我认为稳定赚超过2%会很难，尤其是在交易生涯早期。但在那个区间内，半个百分点到2%，半个百分点到1%。
Let’s say there are about 200 trading days a year. There are not; it’s more like 220 trading days a year, but let’s say there are 200 trading days a year and you make 1% a day. Do you really make 200% a year if you make 1% a day? No. You’re really going to make a lot more than that because you’re risking the same percent every day, but as your account grows, you’ll be trading bigger. So it’s compounding. So instead of 1% a day for 200 days, resulting in a 200% gain, it’s more like a 400% gain per year if you’re really good and really aggressive.
假设一年大约有200个交易日。其实没有，一年更接近220个交易日，但咱们就说一年200个交易日，你每天赚1%。如果你每天赚1%，一年真的能赚200%吗？不是。你实际会赚得比那多得多，因为你每天承担的风险百分比是一样的，但随着账户增长，你会交易更大的仓位。所以这是复利。所以，不是每天1%持续200天、最终得到200%的收益；如果你真的很厉害、真的很激进，一年更接近400%的收益。
Professional traders
专业交易者
What about professional traders? As a guideline, if you’re looking for a swing trade, if you’re making a half percent a day, you’re doing pretty well. Just look at any professional trader. If you look at the performance of hedge funds, some of them day trade a lot – for example, high frequency trading firms. Are they making 100%, 200%, 500% a year? No, they’re not. Most hedge funds manage money. If you show me a fund that consistently nets 10% a year with very little drawdown, maybe 3% or 4%, that fund will quickly be managing $10 billion, $100 billion, because everyone would want to make 10% a year if they’re risking only 3%. That’s a great result for the fund.
那专业交易者呢？作为一个参考标准，如果你想做波段交易，每天能赚半个百分点，你就已经做得相当好了。随便看看哪个专业交易者。如果你看看对冲基金的表现，其中有些会大量做日内交易——比如高频交易公司。他们一年赚100%、200%、500%吗？不，他们没有。大多数对冲基金都是管理他人资金。如果你给我看一只基金，它能持续做到每年净赚10%，而且回撤非常小，可能只有3%或4%，那么这只基金很快就会管理100亿、1000亿美元，因为如果只承担3%的风险，人人都想一年赚10%。对基金来说，这是个很棒的成绩。
So most great professional traders – the billionaires of Wall Street, the hedge fund managers – they’re not making 1% a day. They’re not trying to make 1% a day. They’re trying to make 10% a year, maybe 20% a year. If they’re going for a bigger profit, 20% a year, they’re going to have bigger drawdowns. More reward, you’re going to need more risk.
所以，大多数顶尖的专业交易者——华尔街的亿万富翁、对冲基金经理——他们并不是每天赚1%。他们也没想每天赚1%。他们追求的是每年赚10%，也许每年20%。如果他们追求更大的利润，比如每年20%，他们的回撤也会更大。更多回报，你就需要冒更多风险。
If you’re looking to make 100% a year or 200% a year on your account, you’re looking to be better than the very best people on Wall Street. It’s doable, though, for really good individual traders. The people on Wall Street, those people managing other people’s money, they can’t take that kind of risk – the kind of risk that an individual trader can take. Also, they’re managing so much money. If you have a $10 billion fund, even if you wanted to risk 1%, you’d be trading thousands of Emini contracts, and it would be hard to get in and out if you’re trading thousands of contracts at a time, especially if you’re going for a small reward – 2, 3, or 4 points.
如果你想让账户每年赚100%或200%，那你追求的是比华尔街最顶尖的人还要出色。不过，对于真正优秀的个人交易者来说，这是可以做到的。华尔街那些人，那些管理别人资金的人，承担不了那种风险——那种个人交易者能够承担的风险。而且，他们管理的资金规模太大了。如果你管理着一只100亿美元的基金，即使你想承担1%的风险，你也要交易几千张迷你标普（ES）合约；如果你一次交易几千张合约，进场和出场会很困难，尤其是当你追求的是2、3、4个点这样的小利润时。
Individual trader benefits
个人交易者的优势
As an individual trader, you’re never going to have to worry about the size of your position and getting filled properly. If you’re trading 1,000 contracts, your fills are not going to be what you would want if you were trying to make 100% a year or 200% a year. But as an individual trader, that’s never going to be a problem. You will never get big enough so that you have to worry about influencing the market and getting slippage. So that’s an advantage that an individual trader has.
作为个人交易者，你永远不用担心仓位大小和能否顺利成交的问题。如果你交易的是1000张合约，而且你想一年赚100%或200%，你的成交情况就不会是你希望的那样。但作为个人交易者，这永远不会成为问题。你永远不会做到足够大，以至于需要担心影响市场和遭遇滑点。所以这是个人交易者具备的一个优势。
No matter how big you trade, you’re never going to get too big, and that allows you to get in and out of the market many times a day without significant slippage, and you could end up making a lot of money. And if you’re good, you can get a very high percentage return on your account – better than most of the best firms on Wall Street .
无论你做多大，你永远不会变得太大，这让你可以在一天内多次进出市场而不会出现明显的滑点，最终可能赚到很多钱。如果你做得好，你的账户回报率可以非常高——比华尔街大多数最好的公司都要好。
But if you’re a day trader with a small account, I would be thinking in terms of trying to make about a half percent a day. So if you have a $5,000 account, try to average $50 a day. If you have a $50,000 account, you might try to average several hundred dollars a day. And if you’re trading a $50,000 account, you might be trading two Emini contracts, maybe three. I would not be trading 10 Emini contracts with a $50,000 account. If you trade one or two, that’s fine.
但如果你是账户很小的日内交易者，我会考虑把目标定在每天赚大约半个百分点。所以如果你有5,000美元的账户，试着平均每天赚50美元。如果你有50,000美元的账户，你可以试着平均每天赚几百美元。如果你交易的是50,000美元的账户，你可能会交易2份迷你标普合约，也许3份。我不会用50,000美元的账户去交易10份迷你标普合约。如果你交易1份或2份，那没问题。
Think about the chart, not about the money
想着图表，别想着钱。
You want to make sure that you’re not thinking about money and losing money all the time. You have to be thinking about the chart and the trade and managing it properly, and you don’t want that to be influenced by worrying about losing too much money. One of the problems with trading too big a size for your account is that you’ll end up worrying too much about money, and you will make mistakes with the management. It will influence how you manage your account. You’re aware of a risk of ruin.
你要确保自己不要一直想着钱和亏钱的事。你必须把注意力放在图表、交易和正确管理仓位上，不能因为担心亏太多钱而影响判断。仓位相对于账户来说太大的问题之一，就是你最终会过度担心钱，从而在管理上犯错。这会影响你管理账户的方式。你要意识到破产风险的存在。
No matter how good a trader you are, there’s a risk of ruin. There’s a risk that your account will fall so low that you can no longer meet margin requirements and continue trading with that account. That’s called the risk of ruin. It’s also called blowing your account, and you don’t want to be worried about blowing your account. I’ve never blown an account. Even though I’ve traded a long time, I’ve never blown an account. Some professional traders have. They close the fund if their fund falls a certain amount – for example, if it loses half of its value.
无论你是一个多好的交易者，破产风险始终存在。也就是说，你的账户有可能亏到低得无法再满足保证金要求，从而无法继续用那个账户交易。这就叫破产风险，也叫爆仓，你不想整天担心爆仓。我从来没有爆过仓。虽然我交易了很长时间，但我从来没有爆过仓。有些职业交易员爆过。如果他们的基金跌到一定程度——比如亏掉一半——他们就会关闭基金。
So if you’re trading a $50,000 account and you’re trading two or three contracts, it becomes pretty difficult to risk only 1% or 2% of your account, so you’re probably trading too big. I would not be trading 10 Eminis with a $50,000 account. I would trade one or two. You have to avoid thinking about money, and if you risk too big, you’re going to be worrying about money. It’s very hard to risk only 1% or 2% on a $50,000 account if you’re trading two or three contracts because sometimes you have to risk 10 or even 20 points when the bars are very big, as they have been lately.
所以，如果你用5万美元的账户交易，却做2手或3手合约，那就很难做到只承担账户的1%或2%风险，所以你的仓位很可能太大了。我不会用5万美元的账户去做10手迷你标普。我会做1手或2手。你必须避免去想钱的事，而如果你风险敞口太大，你就会忍不住担心钱。用5万美元的账户做2手或3手合约，很难只承担1%或2%的风险，因为有时候你不得不止损10个点甚至20个点，尤其当K线非常大的时候——最近就是这种情况。
Stop placement on wide range days
宽幅日的止损位设置
Some of the days lately have had ranges of 80 points or 100 points. On some of those days, I risked over 50 points – 50, five-zero points, with my stop. I just sometimes dragged the stop on the price ladder far, far away. I don’t even pay attention to how far away it is. It’s very far away because if the bars are really big, I want to make sure that I’m using a stop based upon the price action. Sometimes that requires the stop to be very far away, and if the market starts to get close to the stop on the price ladder, then I’ll look closely at the chart and find out exactly where the stop has to be, and I’ll adjust it to make sure that it’s exact.
最近有些交易日的波动范围达到80点甚至100点。在那些日子里，有几次我的止损超过了50个点——50，5-0个点。有时候我就是把价格阶梯上的止损拖到很远很远的地方。我甚至不去注意它有多远。非常远，因为如果K线真的很大，我要确保自己的止损是基于价格行为来设置的。有时候这要求止损位设得非常远，而如果市场开始接近价格阶梯上的止损位，我就会仔细看图表，找出止损到底应该在哪里，然后调整它，确保它精确无误。
If you have a $50,000 account and you’re risking 50 points, as I have done lately – risked 50 points per contract on some trades – if you’re trading a $50,000 account, that is $2,500 per contract, and that’s 4% risk. That’s already too big if you have a $50,000 account. So if you’re trading a $50,000 account and you’re risking 50 points and one contract, that’s too big. You cannot do that. You have to trade smaller, like Micro Eminis. I think traders should be trying to risk no more than 1% or 2% of their account at any time, no matter how big their account is.
如果你有一个5万美元的账户，而你在冒50个点的风险，就像我最近做的那样——某些交易上每张合约冒50个点的风险——那么如果你交易一个5万美元的账户，那就是每张合约2500美元，也就是4%的风险。对于5万美元的账户来说，这已经太大了。所以如果你用一个5万美元的账户交易，冒50个点的风险，并且做一张合约，那就太大了。你不能那样做。你必须交易更小的规模，比如微型迷你。我认为交易者无论账户有多大，在任何时候都应该尽量冒不超过账户1%或2%的风险。
Risk per trade versus risk per day
单笔交易风险与每日风险比
Now, what about the issue of how much you’re risking per trade versus how much are you risking per day? Let’s say you’re willing to risk 2% of your account, and that’s absolute. So if your account is $50,000, 2% is $1,000. It doesn’t matter if you lose it on one trade today or on five trades today; that’s the end of your trading for the day.
现在，关于你每笔交易的风险与每日风险的关系？假设你愿意风险2%的账户资金，绝对固定。所以，如果你账户为5万美元，2%就是1000美元。无论今天你输掉一次交易，还是五次交易，这都是你当天的交易结束。
Let’s say you have a $5,000 account and you’re risking 1%. That’s $50. If you’re risking $50 on one trade because the bars are reasonably big and you lose your $50, it’s probably better not to trade again today. You might try trading one more trade if there’s a good setup, especially if you can trade a smaller size, but if you lose again and you’ve lost 2% on the day, I would stop.
假设你有一个5000美元的账户，你冒1%的风险。那就是50美元。如果你在一笔交易上冒50美元的风险，因为K线相当大，而你亏掉了这50美元，那么今天可能最好就不要再交易了。如果有一个好的形态，你也许可以再尝试交易一笔，特别是如果你能用更小的规模交易，但如果你再次亏损，当日已经亏了2%，我就会停下来。
You can also talk about drawdown from the all-time high. If you started with a $5,000 account and it became a $10,000 account, then 2% drawdown now is $200, so you can risk more. But if it drops $200 from the $10,000 in any one day, whether it’s on one trade or several trades, I’d stop trading again for that day. Everybody has a different comfort level, but I think most traders would not want to lose more than 2% of their trading capital in any one day.
你也可以谈论从历史高点算起的回撤。如果你开始时是一个5000美元的账户，后来变成了10000美元，那么现在2%的回撤就是200美元，所以你可以冒更多的风险。但如果一天之内从10000美元里亏掉200美元，不管是单笔交易还是多笔交易亏的，我当天就会停止交易。每个人都有不同的舒适程度，但我认为大多数交易者都不愿意在任何一天内亏损超过其交易资金的2%。
Drawdowns for beginner and experienced traders
新手和有经验交易者的资金回撤
I want to draw a distinction when I’m talking about drawdowns between a beginning trader and an experienced trader. A beginning trader is going to lose money for many months, possibly even a couple of years, and he has to be trading the absolute smallest position size possible, like a single micro Emini or 10,000 units in the Forex market. He has to make sure that his account is going to remain big enough to trade while he learns how to trade.
我想区分一下，当谈到回撤时，新手交易员和有经验的交易员有什么不同。新手交易员可能会在最初几个月甚至几年内亏损，他必须交易最小规模的合约，比如单个微型迷你标普（ES）合约，或者外汇市场的10,000单位。他必须确保在学习交易的过程中，账户资金足够维持交易。
So the goal of a person starting out is different from a person who is already consistently profitable. A person starting out has to expect to lose money for a period of time. He should not be thinking in terms of drawdown; he should be thinking in terms of trading the smallest position size possible. So for example, as I said, trading a single Micro Emini contract or 10,000 units in the Forex market, and if he gets a couple losses in the day, stop trading that day and reevaluate. Look to try to understand what he did wrong and then try again tomorrow.
对于刚入门的交易者来说，目标与已经稳定盈利的交易者是不一样的。入门者必须做好在一段时间内亏损的心理准备。他不应该考虑亏损多少，而是应该尽可能地交易最小规模的合约。比如我之前说的，交易一个微型迷你合约，或者外汇市场的10,000单位，如果一天出现几次亏损，就停止交易，重新评估。尝试去理解自己哪里做错了，然后在明天再尝试。
Do not lose more than 2% a day
每日亏损不要超过 2%。
A consistently profitable trader is still not going to want to lose more than 2% of his account in a day. If he’s down 5% in a week, he should probably reduce his risk per trade until he’s consistently winning again. So for example, if he was trading one Emini and his account fell 5% from the all-time high – let’s say the all-time high was 2 months ago – he should stop trading, at least for the rest of the day, and reevaluate what he’s doing and probably reduce his position size when he starts trading again next week. For example, if he was trading one Emini contract, he might start trading one Micro Emini contract next week for a day or two until he’s consistently profitable again, and then go back to his usual trading size, one Emini contract.
一个稳定盈利的交易者，仍然不会想在一天内亏损超过账户的2%。如果他在一周内亏损达到5%，他或许就应该降低每笔交易的风险，直到他重新开始稳定盈利。举个例子，如果他之前交易一手迷你标普，账户从历史最高点回撤了5%——假设历史最高点是在两个月前——他就应该停止交易，至少当天剩余时间不再操作，重新评估自己的做法，并且在下周重新开始交易时，很可能要降低仓位规模。比如，如果他之前交易的是一手迷你标普合约，下周可能先交易一手微型迷你合约一两天，直到他重新稳定盈利，然后再回到他通常的交易规模，也就是一手迷你标普合约。
So that’s my overall thought about swing trading. I think a good swing trader, if he’s trading well, if he’s a consistently profitable trader, he should be thinking in terms of making about a half percent to 1% of his account size per day. And at some point, when you have multiple accounts and you have very big accounts, I don’t think in terms of that anymore. I just think about what is a comfortable amount of risk that I can take during the day, and then make whatever I can based on that risk. I would never be risking more than 1% or 2% of my entire trading accounts, my combined trading accounts, on any one trade or in any one day.
所以这就是我对波段交易的整体看法。我认为一个好的波段交易者，如果他交易得当，如果他是一个稳定盈利的交易者，他应该考虑每天赚取账户规模的0.5%到1%。而在某个时候，当你有多个账户，而且账户规模很大时，我就不再那样考虑了。我只考虑白天我可以承受的舒适风险量，然后根据那个风险去赚我能赚的。我绝不会在任何单笔交易或任何一天内，冒险超过我全部交易账户（合并后的交易账户）的1%或2%。
So I hope you found this useful. Again, this is Al Brooks. Thank you.
所以，我希望这对你有用。再次，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯。谢谢。