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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/swing-trades-open/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:12
Trade selection — bad swing trades BPA trading room Q&A: July 27, 2016
交易选择——糟糕的波段交易 BPA交易室问答：2016年7月27日
Question 1: I bought the open for a swing up. Sold the B4 high, for a swing down, and then bought above B6 for a swing up. After which I was too upset to continue. Can you comment on these trades? Video duration: 6min 17sec
问题1：我在开盘时买入，预期价格会上涨。在B4的高点卖出，预期价格会下跌，然后在B6上方买入，预期价格会上涨。之后我情绪太糟糕，无法继续交易。你能对这些交易发表评论吗？视频时长：6分17秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
你也可以在需要时在 Al 的 YouTube 频道上观看这个视频。
Patience – wait for information
耐心——等待信息
Okay, so he bought the open, a breakout above yesterday’s high for a swing up. My first thought is on the open, a lot of times, usually, it’s better to get information and buying bar one is not enough information for me to buy. As soon as I see the close of B1, if I did buy the open of B1, I’m going to get out below B1. And then he sold the B4 high for a swing down. I don’t know if you were in the room at the time. I was talking about B4 being a buy setup for an opening reversal and I talked about all of the opening reversals that we’ve had over the past month. That so many days, we’ve had strong sell offs and then a quick early low of the day, despite a strong sell off. So, I personally would have not bought the open of the day. This is a weak rally and there’s just no way that I’m going to be buying high after a weak rally, at resistance — the all-time high. So, there’s zero chance I would take that buy. So I think that’s not a good buy.
好的，他买入开盘价，因为价格突破了昨日高点，预期会出现上涨波段。我的第一个想法是，在开盘时，通常情况下，获取更多信息更好，而买入第一根K线对我来说信息不足，无法决定买入。当我看到B1的收盘价时，如果我买入了B1的开盘价，我会在B1下方离场。然后他在B4的高点卖出，预期会出现下跌波段。我不知道你当时是否在房间里。我当时说过，B4是一个开盘反转的买入信号，我还谈到了过去一个月我们经历的所有开盘反转情况。很多天，我们都经历了强烈的抛售，然后迅速出现当日低点，尽管有强烈的抛售。因此，我个人不会买入当日的开盘价。这是一个弱势反弹，我绝不会在弱势反弹后，在高位（历史高点）的阻力位买入。所以，我绝对不会接受这个买入信号。我认为这不是一个好的买入机会。
Trade selection
交易选择
Obviously, the markets up there so the traders bought. For every seller there has to be a buyer, but not an individual trader—an institution maybe. Trade selection, I would not have taken that buy. This [above B4] is a buy setup more than a sell setup. And then [the trader] bought above bar B6 for a swing up. I think it’s okay to buy the B6 close. I think it’s okay to buy it above B6. But if you do, you’ve got to be aware that you’re buying right at resistance. The B3 high, and the high of the day, and yesterday’s high. So, you’re got to be pretty quick to get out. So if you buy the B6 high, where do you get out? Do you get out below B6? Maybe. Do you get out on a second pullback bar — bar 8 falling below B7? More and more bulls were exiting through here [B7-9]. That’s why we’re getting the series of bear bars and ultimately, the final bulls gave up on bar 11.
显然，市场上涨了，所以交易者买入了。每个卖家都需要一个买家，但不是散户交易者——可能是机构。关于交易选择，我不会选择那笔买单。这[B4上方]更像是一个买入信号，而不是卖出信号。然后[交易者]在B6 K线上方买入，期待价格上涨。我认为买入B6的收盘价是可以的。我认为在B6上方买入也是可以的。但如果你这样做，你必须意识到你是在阻力位买入。B3的高点，当日的高点，以及昨日的高点。所以，你必须非常迅速地离场。那么，如果你买入B6的高点，你会在哪里离场？你会在B6下方离场吗？也许吧。你会在第二个回撤K线（8号K线跌破B7）时离场吗？越来越多的多头在B7-9这里离场。这就是为什么我们看到一系列阴线，最终多头在11号K线放弃了。
What’s your objective — swing or scalp?
你的目标是什么——波段交易还是短线交易？
It depends on what your objective is. If you are trading for a swing, you have to use swing stops. The swing stop for the bulls buying the B1 open, the swing stop is below B1. The swing stop for the bears selling the B4 high is still above B1. Selling that B4 high, my stop is up here [above B1 or B3]. And for the bulls buying above B7, you’re buying at the top of a developing range. I talked a few times early on, if you read my post at the beginning of the day. I said it looked like a trading range open, so if you’re buying above B6, you’re buying at the top of a trading range. In general, that’s a bad thing to do.
这取决于你的目标是什么。如果你是做波段交易，就必须使用波段止损。对于买入B1开盘的多头来说，波段止损位于B1下方。对于卖出B4高点的空头来说，波段止损仍然位于B1上方。卖出B4高点时，我的止损设在上方（B1或B3上方）。对于买入B7以上的多头来说，你是在一个正在形成的区间顶部买入。我之前说过几次，如果你读了我早上的帖子，我说这看起来像是一个区间开盘，所以如果你在B6上方买入，你是在区间顶部买入。一般来说，这样做是不好的。
Low probability trades
低概率交易
I think trade selection is the issue. It sounds like you’re very eager to trade, and very eager to trade breakouts in a market, where the market has been sideways for 10 days. If the market is sideways for 10 days, in general, you want to buy low and sell high, not buy high and hope that this is going to be the start of a breakout. So you bought the B1 open and you bought the B6 high. Both times you were betting on a breakout, and the rally is just not all that strong, and we’re at the top of a 10-day trading range. By definition, you’re taking a low probability bet, and if you’re taking a low probability bet, you’re betting on a swing. If it’s going to be a swing, it will become clear. I think it’s not yet clear on the open of B1. It’s not yet clear on the close of B6. Although the close of B6 is hopeful for the bulls.
我认为交易选择是问题所在。你似乎非常渴望交易，尤其是在市场横盘10天后，渴望交易突破。如果市场横盘了10天，一般来说，你应该低买高卖，而不是高买并希望这将是突破的开始。你买入了B1开盘和B6高点，两次都押注于突破，但反弹并不强劲，我们处于10天交易区间的顶部。从定义上讲，你是在做一个低概率的赌注，如果你在做低概率的赌注，你就是在押注波段。如果是波段行情，情况会变得明朗。我认为在B1开盘时还不清楚，在B6收盘时也不清楚。尽管B6的收盘对多头来说是希望的。
Getting ‘upset’ is a problem
感到“心烦”是个问题。
You’re taking swing trades that are just not high probability and if you take them for the next 100 trades, I think you may end up making money. However, you are going to be losing 60% or more of the time, maybe 70% of the time. And it’s just not fun to lose that much. Like you said in your question, I was too upset to continue, right? So, if you’re taking low probability trades, you’re going to be too upset to continue . Like you said in your question. And the problem is, the only way you can make money, taking low probability trades, is by continuing to take them, and you get occasional winners that more than offset all of the losses. However, really difficult to do, because you used the word “upset”. That is the problem.
你做的波段交易概率并不高，如果你在接下来的100笔交易中继续这样做，我认为你可能会赚钱。然而，你会损失60%或更多的时间，可能70%的时间。损失这么多真的很不开心。正如你在问题中提到的，我太沮丧了，无法继续下去，对吧？所以，如果你做低概率的交易，你会太沮丧而无法继续。正如你在问题中提到的。问题是，做低概率交易的唯一赚钱方法是继续做这些交易，偶尔会有赢家，这些赢家足以抵消所有的损失。然而，这真的很难做到，因为你用了“沮丧”这个词。这就是问题所在。
Wait for high probability setups
等待高概率的交易机会
You’re a person, and I’m a person, and if we’re upset we cannot do what we need to do. And then if you’re losing too much of the time, it’s really hard to manage the occasional big winner well enough to make up for all of the losses. So for me, my comment is trade selection. I would be much more patient and wait for more information, and wait until it’s clearly bullish or bearish. The B11 close, probably bearish. B13 close, high probability we’re going down for some kind of a measured move. So wait for that, and it’s much easier to make money.
我们都是人，如果情绪不好，就无法完成需要做的事情。如果你经常亏损，就很难很好地管理偶尔的大赢单，以弥补所有亏损。所以，对我来说，我的建议是选择交易。我会更加耐心，等待更多信息，直到行情明确呈现多头或空头特征。11号K线的收盘价可能看空。13号K线的收盘价，大概率会出现某种等距下跌。所以等待这个机会，赚钱会更容易。
Question 2: Would you talk about the two or three best swing trades of the day?
问题2：您能谈谈今天表现最好的两三个波段交易吗？
Maybe selling the B10 close, stop above here [B7], and then getting out above B22. Selling the B13 close, stop would go above B13 or above B11, or above here [B7]. I think you’d still get out above B22. Then buying above B22, that’s not a swing. Buying above B36, theoretically it’s a swing because it makes sense that the bulls had a chance of converting a spike-and-channel into a trading range. I’m not sure the probability is high enough for a scalp. Then finally, buying above B56, or buying the B58 close, B59 low, or the B61 high, and you end up getting out below B73, making about a point. So some days you get really big swing trades; other days are days where you’re going to get a lot of reversals and not much follow through.
也许可以在10号K线收盘时卖出，止损设在这里（7号K线）上方，然后在22号K线上方离场。在13号K线收盘时卖出，止损可以设在这里（7号K线）上方，或者13号K线或11号K线上方。我认为你仍然会在22号K线上方离场。然后在22号K线上方买入，这不算是波段交易。在36号K线上方买入，理论上算是波段交易，因为多头有机会将尖顶和通道形态转化为交易区间，这很有道理。我不确定这种短线交易的概率是否足够高。最后，在56号K线上方买入，或者买入58号K线的收盘价、59号K线的低点或61号K线的高点，最终你会在73号K线下方离场，赚取约1个点。所以有些日子你会获得非常大的波段交易；另一些日子则会有很多反转，但后续跟进不多。
Hope everybody has a good night.
希望大家都有一个美好的夜晚。
Al Brooks
阿尔·布鲁克斯
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于阿尔在线日间交易室的信息