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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/tesla-stock-price/ 生成时间: 2026-08-29 14:22
Video duration: 11min 18sec
视频时长：11分18秒
Trading room Q&A Tuesday July 7, 2020
交易室问答，2020年7月7日星期二
Q: Tesla at 1370. What’s going on? How did that happen?
问：特斯拉在1370。怎么回事？怎么涨成这样的？
Tesla stock price rationale
特斯拉股价的逻辑
Let me just say I own two Teslas. I like the car. I like – the body is terrible, but comfort – I had a Lexus before the Tesla, and the inside of the car was a much better car. The car felt more solid, and I like the comfort factors in the Lexus more than in the Teslas. But the Tesla is a heck of a fun car to drive. I love it when some teenage kid pulls up next to me at a stoplight in a pickup truck. It’s incredible how fast I can blow them away. So even though I’m an old guy. It’s fun to shut down the young punks. It’s a really, really great car.
我先说一句，我自己就有两辆特斯拉。我喜欢这车。我喜欢——车身做工很烂，但舒适性——在特斯拉之前我开的是雷克萨斯，那车内部好得多。那车感觉更扎实，而且雷克萨斯的舒适性比特斯拉更好。但特斯拉开起来真的超级爽。我特别喜欢红灯时旁边停个开皮卡的小年轻。我一下就能把他们甩没影，快得离谱。所以就算我一把年纪了，干掉这些小年轻还是很有意思。这真的是一辆非常非常好的车。
Tesla the most valuable company in the world
特斯拉：全球市值最高的公司
Tesla is right now the most valuable car company in the world, more than Ford and General Motors combined, more than Fiat, more than Mercedes, more than Honda, more than Toyota. It’s the single most valuable car company in the world. But this is not due to cars. They cannot sell enough cars to justify this kind of a price earnings ratio or that market cap. They just cannot sell enough cars. So this has nothing to do with what Tesla is doing. It has to do with what traders think Tesla might do.
特斯拉现在是全球市值最高的汽车公司，比福特和通用汽车加起来还高，比菲亚特、奔驰、本田、丰田都高。它是全球最值钱的汽车公司，没有之一。但这不是因为汽车本身。他们卖不出足够多的车来撑起这种市盈率或市值。他们就是卖不出足够的车。所以这跟特斯拉现在做了什么无关，而跟交易者认为特斯拉接下来可能做什么有关。
Monthly chart, we’re just going parabolic. All along the way, every now and then they put some clown on TV saying, “Oh, Tesla, they’re going to go bankrupt.” People said similar things about Netflix and a little bit about Amazon. When I see those people, I think they’re fools. I think Tesla is an incredibly great car. It’s different from all other cars. It’s a fantastic car. They’re not going to go bankrupt.
月线图，这就是在走抛物线。这一路走来，时不时就有个小丑上电视说：“哦，特斯拉要破产了。”当年也有人对奈飞说过类似的话，对亚马逊也说过一点。我看到这些人的时候，觉得他们就是蠢货。我觉得特斯拉是一辆极其出色的车，和所有其他车都不一样。它是一款梦幻之车。特斯拉不会破产的。
Great products, great companies
伟大的产品，伟大的公司。
Amazon, when idiots were saying Amazon was overpriced at 300, I’m thinking, what are you talking about? I buy all kinds of stuff on Amazon all the time. All they have to do is raise their prices 1% or 2% and then they’ll be making a ton of money.
亚马逊，当那些傻瓜说亚马逊在300美元的时候已经高估了，我心里想，你在说什么呢？我一直在亚马逊上买各种各样的东西。他们只要把价格提高1%或2%，就能赚一大笔钱。
And Netflix, how can you possibly be saying Netflix is going to go bankrupt? They have a great product and they’re the market leader. I remember – this is the monthly chart on Netflix – I remember back over here and up through here, all through Netflix, there were people on TV saying, “It’s going to go bankrupt. Disney’s going to put them out of business.” You’ve got a great product and you’ve got a customer base that understands you have a great product.
再说 Netflix，你怎么可能说 Netflix 会破产呢？他们有非常好的产品，而且是市场领导者。我记得——这是 Netflix 的月线图——我记得从这边一路到上面这里，整个 Netflix 这段走势里，电视上一直有人说：“它会破产，迪士尼会把它们挤出市场。”你有一个好产品，你的客户群体也清楚你有一个好产品。
Same is true with Tesla. If you’ve ever driven one of their cars, it’s an experiential thing. It’s hard – it’s like trying to describe a smell or a sound or a color or anything sensual. The words cannot convey adequately what the experience is. But for me, I like Tesla a lot. I like the car a lot. As I said, I bought two. I bought one for my wife.
特斯拉也是一样。如果你开过他们的车，那是一种体验上的东西。很难——就像试图描述一种气味、声音、颜色或任何感官体验。语言无法充分传达那种体验是什么。但对我来说，我非常喜欢特斯拉。我非常喜欢这辆车。如我所说，我买了两辆。我给妻子买了一辆。
But the car, it’s not the value of the company, the market cap of the company is huge. I don’t know what it is now. It’s probably in the $200 billion price area. There’s no way they can sell enough cars to justify that, but people are wondering, are they going to do things beyond cars? For example, will they take all Ford’s business for the F-150 trucks? But even if they took all Ford’s business ,and all the 18 wheeler business, and every car in the world, that price is way too high. If you put together all the car companies in the world, it’s too expensive. The market cap is too big.
但这辆车，它不是公司的价值，公司的市值是巨大的。我不知道现在是多少。可能在大约2000亿美元左右。他们不可能卖出足够的车来证明这个市值合理，但人们在想，他们会不会做汽车以外的事情？例如，他们会抢走福特F-150皮卡的全部业务吗？但即使他们拿走了福特的全部业务，以及所有18轮卡车的业务，还有世界上每一辆车，这个价格也太高了。如果你把世界上所有的汽车公司加在一起，它也太贵了。市值太大了。
Innovation drives growth
创新推动增长。
So why is it up there? Obviously, a lot of it is emotion , but a lot of it is also people thinking that the car is an innovator, the company is an innovator, and that they’ll keep innovating and that will make them increasingly valuable, and they will do things that are unimaginable now. It’s kind of like Apple 10-15 years ago. They came out with the – I guess it was 15 years ago, maybe 20 years ago, they came out with the iPods, and it was revolutionary. Then they came out with the iPhones and the iPads, and people bought because they just expected new ideas, things that nobody else had thought of before.
那它为什么会涨到那么高？显然，其中很大一部分是情绪，但很大一部分也是人们认为这家汽车公司是创新者，这家公司是创新者，并且他们会持续创新，这会让他们越来越有价值，而且他们会做出现在无法想象的事情。这有点像10到15年前的苹果。他们推出了——我猜大概是15年前，也许20年前，他们推出了iPod，那是革命性的。然后他们推出了iPhone和iPad，人们买是因为他们就是期待新想法，期待别人从未想到过的东西。
That’s why Tesla is doing this. People think that they’re going to come out with ideas that no one has thought of before. And what are those ideas? How am I supposed to know? No one has thought about them yet. But maybe self-driving taxis. Basically a totally automated Uber. They have talked about that. That will happen. And then maybe batteries that, instead of getting 200 to 300 miles per charge, you can get 1,000 miles per charge, and maybe the battery, instead of lasting 200,000 to 500,000 miles, it’ll last a million miles. They’re talking about that.
这就是特斯拉在做这件事的原因。人们以为他们会拿出一些以前没人想到过的点子。可那些点子是什么？我怎么会知道？还没人想到过。不过可能是自动驾驶出租车——本质上就是一个完全自动化的优步。他们已经谈过这个，这会实现。然后可能是电池：每次充电不是跑200到300英里，而是能跑1000英里；电池寿命可能不是20万到50万英里，而是能跑100万英里。他们正在谈这些。
Tesla longevity
特斯拉的耐久性
Just think about it. If you have a car and the doors and windows – they’ll wear out eventually. The tires will wear out. But if you think about the motor in a Tesla, it’s basically like a power drill, a big power drill. How often do you buy new power drills? Once every 30 years or something? The motors, the electric motors last forever, and the Tesla motor is going to last a long time. If they get a battery that can last a million miles, then Teslas are going to last a million miles. People will be buying Teslas with 800,000 miles on them, thinking that they can get another 100,000 miles.
想想看。如果你有一辆车，车门和车窗——它们最终会磨损。轮胎会磨损。但如果你想想特斯拉的电机，它基本上就像一个电钻，一个大电钻。你多久买一次新电钻？大概每30年一次还是什么的？电机，电动机永远用不坏，特斯拉的电机也会用很久。如果他们能有一块跑一百万英里的电池，那么特斯拉就能跑一百万英里。人们会买已经跑了80万英里的特斯拉，想着他们还能再开10万英里。
Right now if you’re buying a used car and you can get 100,000 miles out of it, you’re willing to pay a lot of money for that used car. If you’re buying a used car and expecting 20,000 miles on it, you’re not going to pay much. But if you think you might get 100,000 to 200,000 miles on it, you’re going to pay a lot. So the resale value of Teslas is going to go up. That’s going to support the price of Teslas. The price of Teslas will go up.
现在，如果你买一辆二手车，而且你能让它跑10万英里，你愿意为那辆二手车付很多钱。如果你买一辆二手车，预期只能跑2万英里，你不会付多少钱。但如果你觉得它能跑10万到20万英里，你会付很多钱。所以特斯拉的转售价值会上升。这会支撑特斯拉的价格。特斯拉的价格会上涨。
If you buy a Tesla 3 or 4 years from now and it has a million mile lifetime to the battery, Tesla is going to charge $10,000 more, even though it might cost them $1,000 more to make. So that’s tremendous profit potential.
如果你三四年后买一辆特斯拉，而且它的电池有百万英里的寿命，特斯拉会多收你1万美元，即使他们制造时可能只多花了1000美元。所以那是巨大的利润潜力。
Self-driving vehicles
自动驾驶汽车
What happens if they finally figure out how to do the full self-automation, self-driving? I have self-driving on both of the cars. I don’t think it works all that well, and it certainly does not work all that well on city streets.
如果他们最终搞定了全自动驾驶，完全自动驾驶，那会发生什么？我的两辆车上都有自动驾驶功能。我觉得它并不怎么好用，而且在城市街道上肯定不太好用。
I went through a roundabout about a month or so ago, couple months ago, with one of the cars, and I had it set to go at the speed limit, and the car approached the roundabout and it would’ve just run right up in the middle of the roundabout had I not grabbed the steering wheel and turned it.
大约一两个月前，我开其中一辆车过了一个环岛。我把速度设在限速范围内，车接近环岛时，要不是我一把抓住方向盘转向，它就直接冲进环岛中间了。
So as a driver, I can see the roundabout and I know you’ve got to turn right when you get to the roundabout. But the stupid car didn’t realize that. So right now, the self-driving is okay. It’s entertainment, but it’s not all that good.
作为司机，我能看到环岛，知道到了环岛必须右转。但那辆笨车没意识到这一点。所以目前自动驾驶还行吧，算是种娱乐，但并没那么好。
I believe at some point in the next 2 or 3 years, it’s going to be so good that people will fully self-drive and do very little personal driving. At that point, all of a sudden you’re going to get driverless taxis, right? Uber, Lyft, they’re trying to do the same thing. Google is trying to do the same thing. But Tesla is in the best position to do it. So pretty much all the taxis in the world, all the Ubers in the world, Lyfts in the world, it’s all going to go away, and it potentially could all be Teslas. So they have another big income stream there.
我相信在接下来2到3年的某个时候，它会变得非常好，人们会完全自动驾驶，很少自己开车。到那时，突然就会出现无人驾驶出租车，对吧？Uber、Lyft，他们都在尝试做同样的事。Google也在尝试。但特斯拉处于最有利的位置。所以世界上几乎所有的出租车、所有的Uber、所有的Lyft，都会消失，而且有可能全部变成特斯拉。这样他们就又多了一大块收入来源。
As I said, this is the stuff that people are talking about now, and this stock chart is because people think that they’re going to come up with other things. That’s what is going on here. People are thinking that they’re going to succeed in all of the things that I just said, and they will come up with other things right now that nobody is thinking about.
就像我说的，这是人们现在正在谈论的东西。这张股票图表之所以这样，是因为人们认为他们会搞出其他新东西。这就是现在的状况。人们认为他们会在我刚才说的所有事情上取得成功，而且他们马上还会搞出一些现在没人想到的东西。
Tesla in the home and beyond
特斯拉在家居及更广领域
I don’t know if they’ll do stuff related to the house. I don’t know if they’ll expand beyond – maybe they’ll make air conditioners for the house. Maybe they’ll develop battery packs that are so big that you can store 2 or 3 days’ worth of electricity in your house and never have to worry about a power outage. Maybe you can buy five or six battery packs for your house and store enough electricity for 2 or 3 weeks. There are millions of houses in the United States, and how much would people be willing to pay to have a 100% guarantee of never having a power outage again?
我不知道他们会不会做跟家居有关的东西。我不知道他们会不会扩展到更远——也许他们会为家庭造空调。也许他们会开发出很大的电池组，让你在家里存上2到3天的电，再也不用担心停电。也许你可以为家里买五六组电池，存够2到3个星期的电。美国有数百万套房子，人们愿意付多少钱来获得100%永不停电的保障呢？
So the solar panels, you generate electricity, and you can create tremendous stores of it. Cities, governments, they will – if Tesla can make huge battery packs, governments, countries, everybody’s going to buy it. I think there’s a lot of potential there. Obviously, given what we know today, this is crazy. You have an overbought market.
所以太阳能板，你发电，然后可以大量储存。城市、政府，他们会——如果特斯拉能制造巨大的电池组，政府、国家，每个人都会买。我认为那里潜力巨大。显然，基于我们今天所知，这很疯狂。你面对的是一个超买的市场。
This is the daily chart. Here’s the weekly chart. You have an overbought market, and it’s just rallying in an extremely unsustainable way. But ultimately, I don’t see why anybody would not buy it.
这是日线图。这是周线图。你面对一个超买的市场，而且它以极其不可持续的方式上涨。但归根结底，我看不出有什么理由不买它。
It was interesting when the market was down here at 200 and Musk was joking it would go to 420, the marijuana thing. He smokes marijuana. And everyone kind of thought he was just stupid, that why would it ever go to 420? Well, look what happened with the pandemic crash. It tested 420. Tested 400. So 420, 400 was resistance, and now it’s support, and now this area is support, 1,000.
有意思的是，当市场在这里跌到200时，马斯克开玩笑说它会涨到420，就是那个大麻的事。他抽大麻。大家都觉得他挺蠢，它怎么可能涨到420呢？结果看看疫情崩盘后发生了什么。它测试了420。测试了400。所以420、400是阻力，现在成了支撑，现在这个区域是支撑，1000。
But I gave a very long answer regarding Tesla, but right now, people are betting that it’s the new Apple. Apple was the great innovator, and Apple still is a great innovator, but their product line does not overlap with Tesla. Tesla has the potential of being absolutely huge with those batteries. If they can do something spectacular with those batteries, it will change the world. The electric car is changing the world, but not everybody will buy an electric car. But if the entire power system of the world switches over to have these batteries all over the place, that will change the world. It could easily justify Tesla at 2,000, 5,000, pick some thousand number, but some big, big number.
但关于特斯拉，我做了很长的回答。现在，人们都在押注它是新的苹果。苹果曾是伟大的创新者，苹果现在也依然是伟大的创新者，但他们的产品线与特斯拉并不重叠。特斯拉有潜力凭那些电池做到极其庞大。如果他们能用那些电池做出惊人的东西，就会改变世界。电动车正在改变世界，但不是每个人都会买电动车。但如果全世界的电力系统都转向到处安装这些电池，那就会改变世界。这很容易让特斯拉值2000、5000——随便选个千位数，但一定是个很大的数字。
All right. Hope everybody has a good night.
好了。祝大家今晚愉快。