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Trade probabilities and management BPA trading room Q&A: July 17, 2015
交易概率与管理：BPA 交易室问答，2015年7月17日
Question: Which book do you recommend for learning to identity trade probabilities and trade management? Audio duration: 7min 55sec
问题：您推荐哪本书来学习识别交易概率和交易管理？音频时长：7分55秒
Book recommendations?
有什么书籍推荐吗？
I don’t read books; I write books. I know that sounds narcissistic and I probably am a narcissist, but I don’t have an answer as far as books to recommend. I tried in my three books, the ones that I wrote a few years ago. I try to be comprehensive, discussing probabilities and trade management. Every day, I talk in the room. Traders ask me questions and I come up with better and better ways of wording things, ways of saying things that I hope are easier for people listening to me to understand. And every day, I get questions here and on the Brooks Trading Course website. And again that gives me a chance to think more about things in the course and in the books, and to try to come up with clear ways to say them.
我不看书，我写书。这听起来可能有点自恋，我可能确实有点自恋，但我没有什么书可以推荐。我在几年前写的三本书里都尝试过。我试图全面地讨论概率和交易管理。我每天都在交易室里说话。交易者向我提问，我不断地想出更好的表达方式，希望听我说话的人更容易理解。每天，我都会在这里和布鲁克斯交易课程网站上收到问题。这又给了我一个机会，让我更多地思考课程和书中的内容，并尝试用清晰的方式表达出来。
Trader’s development
交易者的成长
But anyway, back to your question, I really am not current on what other people are saying. My goal in everything that I do is to try to say things better than what anyone else is saying, and more clearly than whatever anyone else is saying, and I’m trying to be comprehensive.
但无论如何，回到你的问题上，我确实不了解其他人目前在说什么。我在所做的一切中的目标是，尝试比任何其他人说得更好、更清晰，并且我试图做到全面。
I’m pretty confident in my knowledge of the markets and I don’t trust a lot of other people out there. 25 years ago, I paid for tutors; I went to seminars; I bought all kinds of books; I bought all kinds of software; and I concluded that, most of the people who are talking are frauds. What they say, if you think about it, it sounds good when you first hear it, and a lot of it is cliché, but it really does not make sense. And that’s my concern about a lot of the people who write. I just don’t trust them. I’m being honest; I just don’t trust them. You can read MBA-type books, grad school type books on management, but it won’t be technical. Some of it might be technical, but most of it will be fundamental stuff.
我对市场的了解相当有信心，但我不信任很多其他的人。25年前，我请了导师；我参加研讨会；我买了各种各样的书；我买了各种各样的软件；我得出结论，大多数说话的人都是骗子。他们说的话，如果你仔细想想，第一次听起来不错，很多都是陈词滥调，但实际上没有意义。这就是我对许多写作者担心的理由。我只是不信任他们。我很诚实；我只是不信任他们。你可以读MBA类型的书，读研究生级别的管理类书籍，但它们不会是技术性的。其中一些可能具有技术性，但大多数都是基础知识。
Business schools not useful for traders
商学院对交易者没有用处
I have a daughter at Harvard Business School . I’ve been to Harvard Business School with her. She invited me and I spent a day there, and I think most people who are day trading will not find anything useful at business school. I think it’s not geared to that. It’s geared toward institutional investing, portfolio fund management — it’s not all fundamental — but it’s mostly all fundamental. And then the math for portfolio management is, I think, very complicated, and I think the average trader — the average profitable, successful, consistently profitable trader does not use any of it in his trading. He simply tries to do what’s right every day, and tries to look for ways to structure a trade.
我有一个女儿在哈佛商学院读书。我陪她去过哈佛商学院。她邀请了我，我在那里待了一天，我认为大多数做日内交易的人在商学院不会找到任何有用的东西。我认为商学院并不适合这个领域。它更侧重于机构投资、投资组合基金管理——不完全是基本面分析，但大部分都是基本面分析。此外，投资组合管理的数学我认为非常复杂，我认为普通交易者——那些持续盈利的成功交易者——在交易中并不使用这些内容。他只是每天努力做正确的事情，并寻找构建交易的方法。
Trade probability and management
交易概率与管理
At any given moment, you can buy or sell 90 percent of the time. On a day like today until the final hour, you can buy or sell and scale in lower if you buy, scale in higher if you sell, and as long as you logically approach what you’re doing, I think you can make money pretty much every day, right? And I do not think that you need much on probability or management beyond the stuff that I write about.
在任何时刻，你都可以买入或卖出90%的时间。在像今天这样的交易日中，直到最后一个小时，你都可以买入或卖出，如果买入则分批在更低价位加仓，如果卖出则分批在更高价位加仓。只要你逻辑清晰地对待你所做的事情，我认为你几乎每天都能赚钱，对吧？我认为除了我写的内容之外，你不需要太多关于概率或管理的知识。
Market cycle — 60% and 40% probability trades
市场周期——60%和40%概率的交易
In terms of probability, I use the example of the market cycle all the time. I try to keep it simple: If the market is in a breakout phase, there’s a 60 percent chance it will go to some kind of measured move based upon the breakout. And if it’s not in a strong breakout, then in general, you can buy or sell. If it’s a fairly tight channel — let’s say a fairly tight channel up, the math is better just to take buys. If the channel is broad enough you can trade in both ways. And whenever you’re in a channel or a trading range, if you’re structuring your trades right and taking second entries, it’s pretty easy to find setups where the probability is 60 percent. And if you’re taking strong breakouts, the probability is 60 percent.
在概率方面，我经常用市场周期的例子来说明。我尽量保持简单：如果市场处于突破阶段，那么有60%的概率会走出某种基于突破的等距运动。如果不是强劲突破，那么总体上你可以做多或做空。如果是一个相当窄的通道——比如说一个相当窄的上升通道，数学上更倾向于只做多。如果通道足够宽，你可以双向交易。而且无论你是在通道中还是在交易区间里，只要你的交易结构正确，并且等待二次入场，找到60%概率的 setups 是相当容易的。如果你做的是强势突破，概率也是60%。
Initial and actual risk
初始风险与实际风险
If you’re not clear and the market’s in a channel or in a trading range, assume the probability is 40 percent and go for a reward of two times risk. Or you can increase your probability by using wider stops and scaling in. Beyond that, I think the average trader does not need to know anything. He just needs to know that, in general, if the probability is very high, he can go for a reward equal to his risk, actual or initial — actual is actually the minimum — and if the probability is unclear and if he feels nervous, he has to assume the probability is low. If he takes a trade, he needs to go for a reward at least twice his actual risk. That would be the minimum.
如果你不清楚，而市场处于通道或交易区间内，假设概率是40%，并追求两倍于风险的回报。或者，你可以通过使用更宽的止损和分批加仓来提高概率。除此之外，我认为普通交易者不需要了解任何其他内容。他只需要知道，一般来说，如果概率很高，他可以追求与风险（实际风险或初始风险）相等的回报——实际风险实际上是最低的——如果概率不清楚，如果他感到紧张，他必须假设概率较低。如果他进行交易，他需要追求至少两倍于实际风险的回报。这将是最低要求。
Probabilities are fleeting
概率是转瞬即逝的
And, I really think that’s true. You don’t need more than that in terms of probability. Everyone wants to be able to look at a chart and say, “Ah, that’s a 90 percent certain trade.” I see trades all day long and, I don’t say it — I only say it to myself. But a lot of them I think are 80 or 90 percent certain. In my mind, I prefer to stick with certain 60 percent, uncertain 40 percent. You hear me talk all the time about 50/50, but I just try to keep it simple. Is it a strong breakout? 60 percent certain. Is it all confused? 40 percent certain.
我真的认为这是正确的。在概率方面，你不需要更多。每个人都希望能够看着图表说：“啊，这是一笔90%确定的交易。”我整天都在看交易，我不说出来——我只对自己说。但我认为其中很多交易有80%或90%的确定性。在我的脑海里，我更喜欢坚持60%的确定性和40%的不确定性。你经常听到我谈论50/50，但我只是想让事情简单化。这是一个强劲的突破吗？60%确定。这是否一片混乱？40%确定。
Most of the time when it’s 40 percent certain, I’m willing to scale in and that gives me increased probability, but I pay for it with increased risk. Increased risk because my stop is further away, increased risk because my position is larger. But that is basically how I trade. I think most profitable traders have some variation of that and they don’t spend a lot of time trying to perfect their ability to determine probabilities. Probabilities, they’re so fleeting. For one instant the probability is very high, the next instant it’s very low.
大多数时候，当我有 40% 的把握时，我愿意加仓，这能提高概率，但我也因此承担了更大的风险——止损距离更远导致风险增加，持仓规模更大也导致风险增加。不过这就是我的交易方式。我认为大多数盈利交易者都有类似的变体，他们不会花大量时间去完善判断概率的能力。概率转瞬即逝：一瞬极高，下一瞬又变得很低。
Many trades 90% certainty!
很多交易有90%的确定性！
I give the example of all of us being 90 percent certain many times a day. Let’s say you buy somewhere and you have a limit order two points above. At one point it hits your limit order and does not fill you. And at that instant you’re trying to get a one-tick profit from the current price. And your stop might be seven or eight ticks away, and you continue to hold. So why are you holding trying to get one tick while risking eight ticks? Why don’t you just simply exit at the market? And you can only continue to hold if you feel you’re 90 percent certain that you are going to get that final one tick. Otherwise it’s insanity to hold for a one-tick profit while risking eight ticks.
我举个例子：我们一天中多次会有 90% 的把握。假设你在某处买入，并在上方两点设置一个限价单。行情触到该限价单却未成交。当时你试图从当前价格赚取一个点的利润。而你的止损可能相隔七八点，你仍然持有。那么你为何要冒八点的风险去赚取一个点？为什么不直接市价平仓？只有当你确信自己有 90% 的把握能拿到最后那一个点时，才能继续持有；否则，为赚一个点而冒八点风险简直是疯狂。
Manage your profits
管理利润
So, all day long when you’re taking trades, that you are 90 percent certain briefly many times a day. Many times a day you are 90 percent certain; you don’t want to think about it because you don’t want to be thinking, “Gosh, I’m risking eight ticks to make one tick,” and that’s a fool’s way to trade. But that is truth. All good traders who take profits with limit orders are in that situation pretty much in every trade.
所以，全天交易时，你一天中多次会短暂地拥有 90% 的把握。你一天中多次有 90% 的把握；你不想去想，因为你不想心里想着，‘天哪，我冒八点的风险只为赚一点’，那样交易就是愚蠢的。但这是事实。所有使用限价单获利的优秀交易者，几乎在每笔交易中都处于这种情况。
Every now and then, you’ll get a trade that just flies through your limit order and you get filled. Most of the time, it goes up a tick, down a tick, up a tick, down a tick. So it hits your limit order, doesn’t fill you, hits your limit order again, doesn’t fill you. So most of the time, that’s what’s happening. It’s hitting your limit order several times before it fills you, and that means you’re trying to get a one-tick profit. Maybe there’s a two-tick pullback, maybe trying to get two-ticks profit, but you’re risking to your stop, which could be eight, ten ticks away.
偶尔，你会遇到一种行情直接穿过你的限价单并成交的交易。大多数时候，价格会上跳一个点，下跌一个点，再上跳一个点，再下跌一个点。于是它会触到你的限价单却未成交，再次触到又未成交。大多数时候，情况就是这样：在成交前，限价单被多次触及，这表明你在试图赚取一个点的利润。可能出现两点的回撤，或者你想赚两点利润，但你的风险是面向止损，而止损可能相隔八到十点。
But for the most part, I think about probabilities in terms of 60 percent or 40 percent. Are we in a strong breakout, or are we not in a strong breakout? And sometimes if we’re not in a strong breakout — let’s say we’re in a broad channel or a trading range — a second entry buy at the bottom, a second entry sell at the top, that can also be 60 percent.
但大多数情况下，我会从60%或40%的概率角度来思考。我们是否处于强劲的突破行情中，还是没有处于强劲的突破行情中？有时，如果我们没有处于强劲的突破行情中——比如说我们处于宽通道或交易区间内——那么在底部进行第二次买入入场，或在顶部进行第二次卖出入场，概率也可能达到60%。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Postscript [BTC Admin]
附言 [BTC 管理员]
In his recent 52 Traders podcast Al did suggest an excellent general trading book which is highly recommended: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: With New Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore by Edwin Lefevre and Jon Markman. This book is certainly one of the few ‘must read’ trading books out there.
在最近的《52位交易者》播客中，Al 推荐了一本非常棒的通用交易书籍，强烈建议大家阅读：埃德温·勒菲弗和乔恩·马克曼合著的《股票操盘手回忆录：杰西·利弗莫尔的一生与时代的新评注与见解》。这本书绝对是市面上少数几本必读的交易书籍之一。
I would add Trading & Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners by Larry Harris. This book gives you valuable facts on how the market works – most of which is unknown to many traders. And copious details on the different kinds of traders present in the market, and how they actually trade.
我还会推荐 Larry Harris 所著的《Trading & Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners》。这本书提供了许多关于市场运作方式的有价值事实——这些对多数交易者来说是未知的。此外，书中详细描述了市场中各种类型的交易者以及他们实际的交易方式。
So just 5 books recommended in my humble opinion: Al’s Price Action Trilogy (Trinity?), and these two books. Feel free to comment below on others.
所以，我个人只推荐5本书：Al的价格行为三部曲（三联体？），还有这两本书。欢迎在下面评论其他书籍。
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息