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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/trading-more-difficult-with-algorithms/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:07
Trading with algorithms and what returns to expect
使用算法交易以及预期回报
Okay. This is a question that comes up every now and then. Has trading become more difficult with the algorithms and what returns can a good trader expect?
好。这个问题经常被问到。在算法交易的环境下，交易是否变得更加困难？优秀的交易者可以期待什么样的回报？
Trading room audio extract — Friday May 8, 2020
交易室音频摘录——2020年5月8日星期五
Algorithms challenge traders
算法对交易者构成了挑战。
To be honest, I think the trading is more difficult with all the algorithms, but in a way, I like the challenge, so I’m doing well. Makes me feel good. There are smart guys, and gals. I have daughters, very smart. There are smart people running those algorithms. And to me, I like to play tennis. And I like to beat people. I like to win. So, for me, I like to take money from the algorithm computers. So it probably is more difficult. But I like the challenge.
说实话，我觉得在有这么多算法的情况下，交易变得更加困难，但从某种程度上来说，我喜欢这种挑战，所以我做得很好。这让我感觉很好。有聪明的人，也有聪明的女人。我有女儿，她们很聪明。有聪明的人在运行这些算法。对我来说，我喜欢打网球。我喜欢击败别人。我喜欢赢。所以，对我来说，我喜欢从算法计算机那里拿钱。所以这可能更困难。但我喜欢挑战。
And you’re also asking what is reasonable profit goal for traders? That is so vague. I can tell you this right now, if you are a trader and you trade your own personal account and you make 10% this year on your stocks and 10% next year, 10% the year after 10% the year after, you probably could manage a fund.
你还问到，交易者的合理盈利目标是什么？这个问题太模糊了。我现在可以告诉你，如果你是一名交易者，你交易自己的个人账户，今年你的股票盈利10%，明年盈利10%，后年盈利10%，再后年盈利10%，那么你可能有能力管理一只基金。
There would be a lot of people who’d be very happy to have you make 10% for them, and if your timeframe is shorter, the percentage gains will be higher.
会有很多人非常乐意让你为他们赚取10%的收益，如果你的交易周期更短，那么收益百分比会更高。
When I used to trade, I had trading buddies online, we used to talk about how many points per day relative to what the day’s range is. Let’s say the day’s range is 10 points.
我以前做交易时，在网上有一些交易伙伴，我们经常讨论每天相对当日波动范围能赚多少点。比如说，如果当天的波动范围是10点。
At a minimum, you’d want to make five points, so half of the day’s range, and if you made equal to the day’s range, 10 points, you’d be happy and every now and then you’d make twice the day’s range 20 points, and you say, yeah, I’m a really great trader, so you kind of strut and show off. Even that is, I think, unnecessary.
你至少希望赚取5个点，也就是当天波动幅度的一半。如果你赚了与当天波动幅度相当的10个点，你会很高兴。偶尔你会赚到两倍于当天波动幅度的20个点，你会说：“是的，我真是个伟大的交易者”，然后你会得意地炫耀。但我认为，即使这样也是不必要的。
Only one goal
只有一个目标
I wouldn’t worry about profit targets like that and goals like that. There’s only one goal that I worry about – I don’t even worry about it. But there’s only one thing that I want to do. I want to do good. Okay. And every part of my life I want to do good. I’m 68 years old. And I just want to be a good person.
我不会担心这样的盈利目标或这样的目标。我只担心一个目标——我甚至不担心它。但我只想做一件事。我想做得好。好吧。我希望在生活的各个方面都做得好。我今年68岁了。我只想成为一个好人。
I want to be a good trader. I don’t care if I’m the best trader, I don’t care if I’m the best person on the planet reading charts, I don’t care. That’s not my goal. My goal is I want to be good and I want to be consistently good. Every day I want to do good. I want to do good things. I want to be nice to people.
我想成为一名优秀的交易者。我不在乎是否是最佳交易者，我不在乎是否是这个星球上读图表最棒的人，我不在乎。那不是我的目标。我的目标是我想做得好，并且持续地做好。我每天都想做得好。我想做好的事情。我想对人好。
I want to trade well. I don’t want to make mistakes. If I do something dumb, I want to fix it immediately. If I do something dumb with person in my life, I want to apologize, you know, I’m sorry. If I do something dumb in trading, I want to get out. I don’t waste any time, so anytime I do something bad. I immediately stop it. I immediately get out, so if I do something dumb in trading. I get out. I do something dumb in my life, I stop doing it, I apologize. Right?
我想交易得好。我不想犯错误。如果我做了什么愚蠢的事，我想立即纠正它。如果我在生活中对某人做了什么愚蠢的事，我想道歉，你知道，我很抱歉。如果我在交易中做了什么愚蠢的事，我想退出。我不浪费任何时间，所以每次我做错事时，我都会立即停止。我会立即退出，所以如果我在交易中做了什么愚蠢的事，我会退出。我在生活中做了什么愚蠢的事，我会停止做，我会道歉。对吧？
So I know it’s really not the answer that you were expecting, but that’s how I look at it. The goal is to be consistently good and you don’t have to be great. Okay? You always hear about the gold medalists in the Olympics. You know the personal wins, the Super Bowl or the World Cup. And that’s fine, but it’s not my goal. My goal is to be good. Every day I just wake up, it makes me feel happy to be good. So that’s one of the reasons why I want to be good.
所以我知道这不是你期待的答案，但这就是我的看法。目标是持续地做好，你不需要成为伟大。好吗？你总是听说奥运会的金牌得主，你知道个人胜利，超级碗或世界杯。这很好，但那不是我的目标。我的目标是做好。每天我醒来，能做好就让我感到快乐。所以这是我想做好的一个原因。
Don’t worry about being the best
不要担心成为最佳
So I don’t worry about being the best. I don’t care somebody else’s 10 times better than me. I don’t care. I just care about doing what’s right and being consistently good. I miss a lot of trades. I don’t care. Sometimes I take trades that I should not have taken. I usually quickly get out and sometimes I get out with a loss, but my goal is trying to find trades that I think I can manage well and profitably, and I take those trades and I stick to the goal that I had when I went into the trade.
所以我不担心成为最佳。我不在乎别人比我好十倍。我不在乎。我只关心做正确的事，并持续地做好。我错过了很多交易。我不在乎。有时我做了本不该做的交易。我通常会迅速退出，有时我会亏损退出，但我的目标是尝试找到我认为可以管理好并盈利的交易，我会做这些交易，并坚持我在进入交易时设定的目标。
If I think it’s a good trending day, I’m more inclined to swing trade if I think it’s not such a good trending day I’m more inclined to exit. I often exit with less profit than what I could have exited with, but I just set a goal on the trade and if it looks reasonable, I get out, take the profit that I was expecting, and I don’t worry if the trade ends up making many more times what I would have made. If it keeps trending, I’ll look to enter again, and again, and again, or I’ll switch to swing trading.
如果我认为这是一个良好的趋势日，我更倾向于波段交易；如果我认为这不是一个良好的趋势日，我更倾向于离场。我经常在获利较少的情况下离场，而本可以获得更多利润，但我只是为交易设定一个目标，如果看起来合理，我就离场，拿走我预期的利润，而不担心最终交易可能带来比我预期更多的收益。如果趋势持续，我会再次、再次、再次寻找入场机会，或者我会转向波段交易。
But, as a trader, all I care about is doing things that make sense and managing things well and not doing stupid things. All of you, every one of you is trading well enough to make a living as a trader. Okay? So, you’re all taking enough good trades. But if you’re not making money consistently it’s because you’re also taking trades that you should not be taking.
但是，作为交易者，我只关心做合理的事、管理得好、不做傻事。你们每个人都交易得不错，足以靠交易谋生，好吗？所以，你们都在做足够多的好交易。但如果你没有持续赚钱，那是因为你也在做你不该做的交易。
And most of the trades, you know you should not be taking, but you’re still taking them and you got to stop doing that. So, the market has a lot of two-sided trading. You don’t want to be selling low, hoping that it’s going to become a trend. If you don’t sell low, you look to sell high. And if it’s low, you’d look for a reason to buy.
大多数交易你都知道不该做，但你还是做了，你必须停止这样做。所以，市场上有很多双向交易。你不想在低位卖出，希望它会变成趋势。如果你不想在低位卖出，那就考虑在高位卖出。如果价格低，你就寻找买入的理由。
And the opposite is true. If it’s going up, you don’t want to be buying big bull bars near the top. If you have a lot of Trading Range trading, you either sell those bars, sell the close, or you look for a reversal down to sell. If it keeps going up, then maybe it will become a strong trend and then maybe you can buy closes.
反之亦然。如果价格上涨，你就不应该在顶部附近买入大阳线。如果有大量的区间交易，你要么卖出这些K线，要么卖出收盘价，要么寻找反转向下卖出。如果价格继续上涨，那么它可能会变成一个强劲的趋势，然后你也许可以买入收盘价。
Doing nothing when needed
在需要的时候什么都不做
A lot of time, you gotta get rid of the bad trades and the result is that you end up spending a lot of time doing nothing. Just sitting there. I fly fish, not as much as I used to, but I like to fly fish. I fly fished with one guy, buddy of mine for years, and he used to, at the end of the day, tell me Al, I caught 15 fish.
很多时候，你必须剔除掉那些糟糕的交易，结果就是你会花很多时间无所事事，只是坐在那里。我喜欢飞蝇钓鱼，虽然没有以前那么频繁了。我和一个朋友一起飞蝇钓鱼了很多年，他每天结束时都会对我说：“Al，我今天钓到了15条鱼。”
But that was not my goal. That was his goal. And a lot of times he would go to little holes where there were a lot of little fish and he’d catch all these little fish. I’m usually trying to catch the most unusual fish, so the biggest fish. So a lot of times I’ll just sit. I would sit on the bank or even lie down on the bank, so I wouldn’t cast a shadow and the fish wouldn’t see me.
但那不是我的目标，那是他的目标。他经常会去那些有很多小鱼的小洞里，然后把这些小鱼都钓上来。我通常试图钓最不寻常的鱼，也就是最大的鱼。所以很多时候我会只是坐着。我会坐在岸边，甚至躺在岸边，这样我就不会投下阴影，鱼也不会看到我。
If I see a fish, or I see where a fish is, I would just keep working it. Just trying to cast well, try not to spook the fish and trying to catch that one big fish. And I’ve caught a lot of big trout doing that. And it makes me happy. It’s fun to catch a lot of fish, but for me it’s more fun to catch special fish.
如果我看到一条鱼，或者我知道鱼在哪里，我就会继续努力。我只想把鱼饵抛好，尽量不要惊吓到鱼，然后试图抓住那条大鱼。我用这种方法抓到了很多大鳟鱼。这让我很开心。抓到很多鱼很有趣，但对我来说，抓到特别的鱼更有趣。
So sometimes I’ll just be very patient and just lie there on the grass trying to catch that special fish. So it looks like I’m doing nothing, but I’m actually fishing. And when I’m trading, a lot of times when the market gets really quiet, middle of the day, in a tight range. I don’t do anything.
所以有时候我会非常耐心地躺在草地上，试图捕捉那条特别的鱼。看起来我什么都没做，但实际上我在钓鱼。当我交易时，市场在白天中间变得非常安静，处于窄幅交易区间时，我经常什么都不做。
I’ll just sit there and patiently watch it. I might take some trades, but the range gets very tight. I just patiently wait. I know that it will change. It’s not going to last all day and if it does last all day, it won’t be there tomorrow. I’ve been doing this for almost 35 years now.
我会坐在那里耐心地观察。我可能会做几笔交易，但区间变得非常窄。我只是耐心地等待。我知道情况会改变。它不会持续一整天，如果它真的持续了一整天，明天也不会再出现。我已经这样做了将近35年了。
Reasonable trade setups keep coming… and coming…
合理的交易机会不断出现……一个接一个……
There’s a stream of reasonable setups that just keeps coming, and coming, and coming, and coming. Even with the computers dominating markets, there are always going to be reasonable things to do and reasonable things that can lead to a pretty-good living as a trader. I hope that kind of answers your question.
市场上源源不断地出现大量合理的交易机会，即使在计算机主导市场的今天，也总有合理的操作方法，这些方法可以让你过上相当不错的交易生活。我希望这能回答你的问题。
Alright, hope everybody has a good weekend.
好了，希望大家周末愉快。