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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/trading-range-breakout-failures/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:46
BPA trading room Q&A: September 22, 2015
BPA 交易室问答：2015年9月22日
Days like this really destroy the progress I’ve built up for weeks. I usually sit aside. I tried today and got tricked into going with breakouts that looked strong. Can you talk briefly again about tips to not get into these awful trading range breakout attempts? Audio duration: 3min 54secs
这样的行情真的会摧毁我几周以来积累的进展。我通常会选择旁观。今天我尝试了一下，结果被诱骗去追那些看起来强势的突破，结果被套了。你能再简要地谈谈如何避免参与这些糟糕的交易区间突破尝试吗？音频时长：3分54秒
Odds of breakout failures
突破失败的概率
Yeah. As you can tell from listening to me, I was hopeful at every breakout. A lot of them I bought fairly early or for the bull’s side or sold fairly early for the bear’s side, and automatically scalped out part right away because I knew the odds are that a breakout was going to fail. Days like this, you see 13, 14, you think, “Oh my gosh, it’s a bear trend,” and you see 32, “Oh, it’s a bull trend,” 40, 41, “Oh, it’s a bear trend.” 43, “No, It’s bull.” 48, “bear”. And you see lots of strong bars up and down. From the first bar of the day—one of the reasons why I pay attention to what happens at the open on bar 1, I said, “We’ll probably get a lot of trading range price action today,” and then I said, “2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8…” I kept saying, “It’s probably going to have a lot of trading range price action today,” and then once we started doing this [B14-28], I said, “Oh, tight trading range”.
是的。从我的话语中你可以听出来，我对每次突破都抱有希望。我经常在多头侧较早买入，或在空头侧较早卖出，并立即自动剥头皮部分仓位，因为我知道突破失败的概率很大。在这样的行情中，你看到13号、14号K线，会想：“天哪，这是空头趋势”，然后看到32号K线，“哦，这是多头趋势”，40号、41号K线，“哦，这是空头趋势”。43号K线，“不，这是多头”。48号K线，“空头”。你会看到很多强势的K线上下波动。从第一根K线开始——这就是为什么我关注开盘时1号K线的走势原因之一，我说：“今天我们可能会看到很多交易区间的价格行为”，然后我说：“2、3、4、5、6、7、8……”我不断重复：“今天可能会有大量的交易区间价格行为”，然后当我们开始出现这种情况（B14-28）时，我说：“哦，这是窄幅交易区间”。
Get in early—scalp out part
早点进场——剥头皮部分仓位
So once you know the odds are, either on bar 1 or bar 27, it doesn’t matter. Once you know the odds are that the day’s going to have a lot of trading range price action, for me what I do is I stop looking for swings or maybe swing a small part and switch to scalping every trade or the majority of my position on any trade And if the market continues to breakout and it enters a swing phase, I’m fine—I’ll look to put positions back on. But when I think the day—no matter how strong the breakout attempts are up and down, if I think the day is probably going to have a lot of trading range price action, I resist the temptation to swing, and I never buy high, and I never sell low. If anything, I’m looking for strong bull breakouts to fail and I’m looking for strong bear breakouts to fail as well. So a lot of times I’ll buy—I’m pretty sure I was long on 32, but I get out pretty quickly when it doesn’t continue up, and I do that all day long. I try to enter early enough so I can scalp out part, but if the breakout bar does not give me immediate follow through, I quickly exit.
所以，一旦你知道概率，无论是在1号K线还是27号K线，这都不重要。一旦你知道当天的行情可能会有大量的交易区间价格行为，我会做的是停止寻找波段，或者只做小部分波段，转而对每笔交易或大部分仓位进行剥头皮。如果市场继续突破并进入波段阶段，我也没问题——我会考虑重新建仓。但当我认为当天——无论突破尝试有多强势，无论是向上还是向下，如果我认为当天可能会有大量的交易区间价格行为，我会抵制波段的诱惑，我从不高位买入，也从不低位卖出。如果有什么，我是在寻找强势多头突破的失败，以及强势空头突破的失败。所以很多时候我会买入——我相当确定我在32号K线时持多头，但如果它没有继续上涨，我会很快出局，我整天都会这样做。我尝试尽早进场，以便可以剥头皮部分仓位，但如果突破K线没有立即给我后续跟进，我会迅速离场。
Hope—our ‘unhelpful’ survival trait!
希望——我们“无益的”生存本能！
There’s a natural tendency for people to be hopeful. I think it’s a survival trait. You always have to be hopeful. You don’t want to be wandering through the desert and then give up, and then have your body be found 200 yards from an oasis. It’s a trait that I think was just developed in our evolution. Being hopeful is a survival skill —it keeps us going during difficult times. You’re trying to feed your family. You don’t give up at 3 o’clock saying, “Err… I’ve hunted all day, didn’t get anything.” No, you keep hunting until you get something. You know, you keep hoping that there will be something there. And that works against you as a trader. You’re constantly hoping that the day will turn into a swing day because it’s easier to trade, but until it does, every attempt to turn into a swing trade will be a trap.
人们天生倾向于抱有希望。我认为这是一种生存特质。你必须一直抱有希望。你不想在沙漠里漫步，然后放弃，结果发现自己的尸体距离绿洲只有200码。我认为这是我们进化过程中刚刚形成的特质。抱有希望是一种生存技能——它在艰难时刻让我们继续前行。你在努力养家糊口。你不会在3点钟就说，“唉…我一整天都在打猎，一无所获。”不，你会一直打猎直到有所收获。你知道，你会一直抱有希望，相信那里会有东西。而这种心态对你作为交易者来说是不利的。你总是希望这一天能转变为波段日，因为那样更容易交易，但在它真正转变之前，每一次尝试去进行波段交易都会成为陷阱。
So it just takes a long time. For me, it’s kind of depressing. I dealt with it decades ago, but it was really kind of depressing because it just didn’t seem right. The market is trying to go up; it should keep going up instead of reversing abruptly. And if it’s going down, it should keep going down. But instead, it seems to just reverse abruptly And it just kind of offended my sense of how the world operates—and it’s upsetting. But now, I see it every day. On a day like this, you see it a lot. I’m at the point where, to me, I just look at it and say, “Yeah, it makes sense,” right? Everyone wants the swing, and the market’s telling us it’s not going to swing, and therefore every attempt to swing is probably going to reverse pretty quickly because all the hopeful traders will be trapped and they’ll have to get out pretty quickly.
这就需要很长时间。对我而言，这有点令人沮丧。我早在几十年前就遇到过这种情况，但当时真的很郁闷，因为感觉不对。市场试图上涨；它应该继续上涨，而不是突然反转。如果它在下跌，它应该继续下跌。但实际情况是，它似乎只是突然反转。这实际上让我对世界运作方式的感觉受到冒犯——让人不快。但现在，我每天都能看到。像今天这样的日子，你会经常看到。我现在已经到了这种地步，我看着它就会说，“是啊，这说得通”，对吧？人人都想要波段，但市场告诉我们它不会波段，因此每一次尝试波段很可能很快就会反转，因为所有抱有希望的交易者都会被套住，他们不得不快速离场。
Al Brooks
我是 Al Brooks，全球顶尖的价格行为（PA）交易教育者。
在交易中，我们需要关注市场的价格行为，识别多头和空头的动态。阳线和阴线是我们判断市场情绪的重要工具。回撤和突破是常见的价格行为模式，而突破回撤则需要我们特别注意，因为它可能预示着突破失败。
交易区间和窄幅交易区间是市场横盘整理的区域，而趋势则是价格持续上涨或下跌的方向。开盘趋势是我们判断当日市场方向的关键。信号K线和入场K线是我们入场交易的重要依据。
内包线和外包线、十字线等K线形态，以及后续跟进和推进段，都是我们分析市场走势的重要工具。波段交易和短线交易是不同的交易策略，而始终持多或始终持空则是一种长期的交易策略。
等距运动、更高的低点、更低的高点、更高的高点和更低的低点，这些都是我们判断趋势强弱和反转的重要指标。均线、K线、楔形、通道、宽通道、头肩形态、双顶/双底、主要趋势反转、高潮（衰竭）、缺口等技术形态，都是我们分析市场的利器。
迷你标普（ES）和微型迷你是常见的交易品种，止损和目标位是我们控制风险和锁定利润的重要手段。风险回报比是我们评估交易机会的关键指标，而加仓（分批建仓）则是一种控制风险的策略。限价单和停损单是我们执行交易的重要工具。
机构是市场的重要参与者，概率和优势（edge）是我们评估交易机会的重要因素。在交易中，我们需要保持直接、实用、简洁的思维方式，就像在交易室里对学生讲话一样，不绕弯子。
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