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Trading range days special BPA trading room Q&A: February 18, 2016
交易区间日特别BPA交易室问答：2016年2月18日
An Ask Al special on trading range days price action with five questions at end of trading room webinar all being 100% relevant to topic. See below video for all questions and transcript. Video duration: 11min 45sec
这是「问问Al」关于交易区间日价格行为的特别内容，在交易室网络研讨会结束时有五个问题，全部与主题100%相关。所有问题和文字记录请见下面的视频。视频时长：11分45秒
You can also view this video on Al’s YouTube Channel if needed.
如有需要，也可以在Al的YouTube频道观看此视频。
Video transcript — Trading range days
视频文字稿——交易区间日
Making money on trading range days
在交易区间日内获利
Question: Why would you assume that Bar 49, that we would have to test back to the 47 low? [Okay, Bar 49, that we would have to test back to the 47 low.] Even though we already had a micro double bottom?
问题：你为什么会认为49号K线必须回测到47低点？[好吧，49号K线，我们必须回测到47低点。]尽管我们已经出现了微型双底？
Okay. Because it’s a trading range day, so I don’t remember what I said, but in a trading range day I’m assuming that every breakout is going to get reversed, right? And that you can pretty much buy with impunity below anything, use a wide stop to scale in and make money. And you can pretty much sell above anything all day long and make money. That’s what I’m saying: A day like this, you say, “Oh Al, it rallied 10 points. Al, it rallied 10 points in a small pullback bull trend.” It doesn’t matter — trading range day. As long as you understand that and you trade it well, you can make money.
好。因为今天是交易区间日，所以我不记得我说了什么，但在交易区间日，我假设每一次突破都会被反转，对吧？而且你几乎可以在任何价格下方无风险地买入，使用宽止损来加仓并赚钱。你几乎可以在全天任何价格上方卖出并赚钱。我说的就是这个：在这样的一天里，你会说，“哦，Al，它上涨了10点。Al，它在一个小回撤的多头趋势中上涨了10点。”这并不重要——这是交易区间日。只要你理解这一点并做好交易，你就能赚钱。
Sometimes in a trading range day, you can set up like this: A reasonable buy, high or low major trend reversal, Bar 48, right? And then you get a plunge — sometimes four or five bars — and you’re thinking, “Oh, my gosh, I’m getting killed. This is going to be a big bear trend day.” It’s not. As soon as you get a bull reversal, 53, you buy it because you’re going to come back up here. Probably 70 percent chance.
有时在交易区间日的行情里，你可以这样布局：一个合理的买入，高点或低点的主要趋势反转，48号K线，对吧？随后你会出现一次暴跌——有时候是四五根K线——你会想，“天哪，我被干掉了，这看来要演变成大空头趋势的一天。”其实不然。一旦你看到牛市反转出现在53号K线，你就买进，因为价格会回到这里继续上行。大约有70%的概率。
It takes a while to believe all this stuff that I’m saying, but if you look at days like this, you start to see a lot of trading range price action. And then it’s selling off and there’s something wrong with the selloff — you’re getting these big bounces all the way down — it looks like it’s probably going to end up as a trading range day, in which case it’s going to be a very forgiving day. And the key is staying patient, and confident, and comfortable, and not getting scared by the big moves. It’s confident that it’s a trading range day. It’s going to keep reversing, and big legs, as strong as they are, they’re not going to go all that far.
要相信我说的这些内容需要一段时间，但如果你观察这样的交易日，你会开始看到很多交易区间内的价格行为。然后市场开始下跌，但下跌过程中出现了问题——你会看到一路向下的大幅反弹——这看起来很可能最终会成为一个交易区间日，在这种情况下，这将是一个非常宽容的交易日。关键是保持耐心、自信和舒适，不要被大幅波动吓倒。相信这是一个交易区间日。市场会持续反转，而强劲的推进段，无论多强，都不会走得太远。
Fading measured move targets
淡化等距运动目标
Question: Do you think fading most logical, measured move targets is usually good enough for a one-point scalp, realizing that nothing’s 100 percent and it depends on context?
问题：您认为淡化大多数逻辑上的等距运动目标通常足以实现一点的剥头皮交易吗？考虑到没有什么是100%确定的，这取决于具体情况。
Context is everything, right? So you can see today I have several measured move targets drawn in. So It fell here, rallied, went up here, sold off, fell here, bounced, bounced over here, and there are other ones that I’ve erased. I don’t think measured move targets are any better or worse than any other kind of support or resistance, prior highs and lows, trend lines, channels. It doesn’t really matter. In general, if the context is good, fading a test of support and resistance, that’s usually a good thing. But if the context is good for a breakout — let’s say you’re in a strong bear trend and you see a measured move down, I think you’re making a mistake buying with a limit order at that measured move down.
情况就是全部，对吧？所以你可以看到，今天我画了几个等距运动目标。它在这里下跌，反弹，上涨到这里，然后下跌，跌到这里，反弹，反弹到这里，还有其他一些我已经擦掉的目标。我不认为等距运动目标比其他类型的支撑或阻力、前期高点和低点、趋势线、通道更好或更差。这并不重要。一般来说，如果情况良好，那么淡化对支撑和阻力的测试通常是一件好事。但如果情况有利于突破——比如你处于强劲的空头趋势中，看到一个等距下跌，我认为你在等距下跌处用限价单买入是一个错误。
Because if you look at a bear trend day and you start at the first bar and don’t look at all the other bars to the right, hide them, and you start scrolling forward, you’ll start to see all kinds of measured move targets, and wedge bottoms, and all kinds of reasons to buy. But as long as you understand that, “Hey, this is a bear trend; we’re getting gaps to the downside, the pullbacks are small”, do not buy. So you have to assume all that support that you’re seeing as the market’s going down, it’s all going to fail.
因为如果你观察一个空头趋势日，从第一根K线开始，不看右边的所有其他K线，把它们隐藏起来，然后开始向前滚动，你会开始看到各种各样的等距运动目标、楔形底部和各种买入理由。但只要你明白，“嘿，这是一个空头趋势；我们正在向下出现缺口，回撤幅度很小”，就不要买入。所以你必须假设，当市场下跌时，你看到的所有支撑都会失败。
So when the market’s in a trend day, you have to assume 80 percent of bottoms — 80 percent of reversals will fail, right? When it’s in a trading range, you have to assume 80 percent of breakouts will fail. So we’re trying to breakout — it’s a trading range day. We’re trying to breakout — it’s a trading range day. Breakout, breakout, trading range day.
所以，当市场处于趋势日时，你必须假设80%的底部——80%的反转都会失败，对吧？当市场处于交易区间时，你必须假设80%的突破都会失败。所以我们试图突破——这是一个交易区间日。我们试图突破——这是一个交易区间日。突破，突破，交易区间日。
So for me, I would not just routinely fade every support or resistance level. I’m much more eager to do it when there’s a lot of trading range price action, or in climaxes. As you know, a lot of times I’ll fade very strong moves in climaxes.
对我而言，我不会只是机械地在每一个支撑或阻力位上都反做。当出现很多交易区间价格行为时，或者在高潮期间，我更愿意这么做。正如你所知，我很多时候会在高潮中反做非常强劲的行情。
Think limit-order scalping — for me that is!
考虑用限价单进行短线交易——这就是我的做法！
Question: You bought one point below Bar 27. For a scalp, you said you would not hold for a swing. Can you briefly explain when you would hold for a swing when taking this type of trade?
问题：你在27号K线下方一点的价格买入。你说过，如果是短线交易，你不会持仓等待波段。你能简要解释一下，在这种类型的交易中，什么情况下你会持仓等待波段吗？
Yeah. In general, when I think the day’s a trading range day, I’m just thinking scalp. My mind just goes to scalp limit orders. That’s how I trade, right? If you look at this day, there probably were 40 or more one-point scalps, and I don’t take all of them, but I take a lot of them. So is there a better way to trade it? There might be, depending on the personality, but I can make a lot of points on a day like today with a very high winning percentage. So there might be a better way that will suit somebody else’s personality, but I’m comfortable with what I’m doing. I’m happy, and I’m relaxed as I trade, and what more can we expect out of a job, right? You’re happy; you’re making money; and you like what you’re doing.
是的。一般来说，当我认为某天是交易区间日时，我只考虑短线交易。我的思维直接转向设置短线限价单。这就是我的交易方式，对吧？如果你看看这一天，可能有40次或更多的1点短线机会，我不会全部抓住，但我会抓住很多。那么有没有更好的交易方式呢？可能有，这取决于个人的性格，但我在像今天这样的行情中可以获得很多点数，且胜率非常高。所以可能有更适合其他人性格的更好方法，但我对自己正在做的事情感到满意。我交易时很开心，也很放松，我们还能对一份工作有什么更高的期望呢，对吧？你开心，你赚钱，你喜欢你所做的事情。
So I understand that there are all kinds of ways to trade and some ways are better than others, especially in hindsight. All I care about is whether or not what I do makes sense. That’s all I care about. There are always many logical ways to make money, and at the end of the day you can see which way was the best. I don’t worry about that. I just worry about “Did I do something that makes sense? Am I doing something that makes sense? Am I managing my trade correctly? Is what I’m doing logical?” That’s all I care about. And I trust that if I do, I’m going to make money.
我明白交易方式有各种各样的，事后看来有些方式确实比其他方式更好。我只关心我所做的事情是否合乎逻辑。这就是我唯一关心的。盈利的合乎逻辑的方法始终很多，到了一天结束时，你可以看到哪种方法是最好的。我不会为那件事担心。我只担心：“我做的事情是否合乎逻辑？我现在做的事情是否合乎逻辑？我是否正确地管理了我的交易？我所做的事情是否合乎逻辑？”这就是我唯一关心的。我相信，如果我这样做了，我就会赚钱。
So in a trading range day, in a day where there’s a lot of trading range price action and the breakouts just keep messing up, right — if there’s something wrong with every breakout and every reversal, like all through here and then here, right, that big tail and then this reversal — to me, it’s just reinforcing my belief that this is a trading range day and that it will probably continue all day long. So with that in mind, I’m doing a lot of one-point scalps, some two-point scalps, and a lot of limit order trading that I’m willing to scale in.
所以在交易区间日，也就是价格行为呈现大量交易区间波动、突破不断失败的一天，如果每个突破和反转都有问题，比如这里和这里，都有大影线和反转，对我来说，这只会强化我的信念，认为这是一个交易区间日，这种情况可能会持续一整天。因此，考虑到这一点，我会进行大量的一点剥头皮交易，一些两点的剥头皮交易，以及大量我愿意加仓的限价单交易。
Breakeven instead of profit and holding onto losers
�盈亏平衡而非获利，且持有亏损头寸
Question: I have a problem getting out at breakeven on most of my trades that are profitable and holding onto losers. Today, I broke even on selling 2 high and selling below 37. Can you comment on that?
问题：我在大多数获利交易中都难以平仓离场以保本，却总是持有亏损头寸。今天，我在卖出2号高点和低于37点时保本了。你能对此发表评论吗？
Yeah. I think in part it’s what I said several times today, or at least I alluded to it several times. That in a trading range day the market is always trying to get you to believe it’s becoming a trend day and it makes traders think, “Okay, maybe if I hold, this will be it. This will be the one that is a 10-point winner or a 20-point winner,” but the reality is it’s not going to be. The reality is all day long, as I said, there were probably 40 trades today — 40 limit order trades betting that breakouts would fail, so the odds are just overwhelming that if you’re holding onto a trade looking for a swing on a day like today, it’s hard. Maybe you sell below 36 and hold for a swing. It’s hard to hold short when you’re forming a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and a wedge bottom. It’s just hard. So for me, I’d rather just scalp, scalp, scalp, limit order, limit order, limit order. So once I decide that the day is getting a lot of trading range price action, I just scalp, scalp, scalp, and if suddenly — let’s say we had Bar 30. Let’s say 31 was another big bull bar closing on its high. I’d say, “Oh, look at that. It’s no longer a trading range day. It looks like it’s becoming a trend day,” then I might swing part. But until I’m hit over the head with a board, I’m going to just keep being stupid. It’s a trading range day. It’s a trading range day. I’m going to scalp. I’m going to scalp. Right?
是的。我认为这部分是我今天说过几次的话，或者至少我多次提到过。在交易区间日内，市场总是试图让你相信它正在变成趋势日，这让交易者认为：“好吧，也许如果我持仓，这将是那一次，将是10点或20点获利的那一次。”但现实情况并非如此。正如我所说，今天全天可能有40笔交易——40笔限价单交易，押注突破会失败，所以如果你在今天这样的行情中持仓等待波段，概率是压倒性的，这很难。也许你在36点以下卖出并持仓等待波段。当你形成更高的低点主要趋势反转和楔形底部时，持空头寸是很难的。这真的很难。所以对我来说，我宁愿只做剥头皮，剥头皮，剥头皮，限价单，限价单，限价单。一旦我决定这一天出现了大量的交易区间价格行为，我就会剥头皮，剥头皮，剥头皮。如果突然——假设我们有30号K线。假设31号K线是另一根大阳线，收盘于高点。我会说：“哦，看看那。这不再是交易区间日了。看起来它正在变成趋势日，”那么我可能会部分持仓波段。但在我被板子敲醒之前，我会继续犯傻。这是交易区间日。这是交易区间日。我要剥头皮。我要剥头皮。对吧？
So until I’m clearly wrong, then that’s what I’m going to keep doing. So if you sold the 2 high, you had two points, I’d take the two points. The 2 high at that point, you possibly could swing, but then when you see the doji bar and then the bull bar here — 4 — I think you’re going to be trying to get out. And selling over here on 36 low, to me, if I got one or two points I would bet on a trading range, which we had, I would just take the one or two points. For me, I’m more selling above bars. You know, selling above 31 or maybe selling above 34, scaling in higher selling more at the 31 high.
所以，除非我明显做错了，否则我会继续这样做。如果你在2号高点卖出，你已经赚了两个点，我会选择拿走这两个点。当时在2号高点，你可能可以波段操作，但当你看到这里的十字线和阳线（4号K线）时，我认为你会试图离场。至于在36号低点卖出，对我来说，如果我能赚一两个点，我会押注于交易区间，而我们确实遇到了交易区间，所以我会直接拿走一两个点。对我来说，我更倾向于在K线上方卖出。比如在31号K线上方卖出，或者在34号K线上方卖出，并在31号高点加仓卖出更多。
Trading range versus trend day
交易区间与趋势日的对比
Question: I sold the close of 33, the third consecutive bear bar, with a stop above the 12 high, [that makes sense.] betting on a test of the 23 close. [Okay, that might be a little bit aggressive, right? If this was straight down with no test, we already had a double bottom here, so I think there’s less need for this to get tested, although it ultimately did. Okay?] I ended up reversing to long above 43, and took a loss on 47.
问题：我在33号K线收盘时卖出，这是连续第三根阴线，止损设在12号高点上方，[这有道理。]押注对23号收盘价的测试。[好吧，这可能有点激进，对吧？如果这是直线下跌，没有测试，我们已经在这里有一个双底了，所以我认为这不需要再被测试了，尽管最终它确实被测试了。好吧？]我最终反转至43点上方做多，并在47点上亏损离场。
Okay. So he sold the third bear bar here, okay, and he held through this, and that’s okay, keeping a stop above 12. That’s okay. So he sold that third close, and he ended up reversing to long above 43, and getting out down here. Again, that’s the issue of what I’m saying about trading range day versus trend day. So yes, we had several good swings today. We had a swing from the open down to here, and up, and then down, and up and down. And if you entered exactly right or if you entered early and used a very wide stop, you could make a lot of money.
好的。他卖出了这里的第三根阴线，然后持仓度过了这段行情，这没问题，止损设在12上方。这没问题。所以他卖出了第三根K线的收盘价，最终反转做多，价格突破43上方，然后在这里平仓。再说一次，这就是我提到的交易区间日和趋势日的区别问题。是的，我们今天有几个不错的波段。从开盘开始，我们经历了一个波段，先下跌到这里，然后上涨，再下跌，接着又上涨和下跌。如果你入场的时机非常准确，或者你提前入场并使用非常宽的止损，你就能赚很多钱。
But to me, it’s just too upsetting to do that because I’m always getting torn up inside. “Hey, I sold the market, it’s going up instead of down.” Or, “I bought – argh it’s going down instead of up.” So I’d rather just take high probability limit order scalps and just do that all day long. So you’re selling below — selling this third close. But at the time — I don’t know if you were in the room at the time, I said the breakout 30 was strong enough so that we’d probably get at least a little bit more up and there probably would be buyers below. And 34 might be a breakout test of the 27 high. So had I sold the 33 close, which I did not — I was buying there — I would have exited above 34. And then over here, this is a tight trading range, so I’m not going to buy above 43 betting that we’re going to get the bull breakout. I would wait to see a very strong bull breakout and then buy. So — also 30, I thought we’d have one more leg up. Well, 36 might be that one more leg up. I understand that this could be a wedge, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, but it’s also a tight trading range in the middle of a trading range day, and I don’t want to be entering with stops above anything. But that’s my thought.
但对我来说，这样做实在太让人沮丧了，因为我内心总是充满矛盾。“嘿，我卖出了市场，结果它却上涨了，而不是下跌。” 或者，“我买入了——天啊，它却下跌了，而不是上涨。” 所以我宁愿只做高概率的限价单短线交易，整天都这样做。所以你是在下方卖出——卖出这个第三个收盘价。但当时——我不知道你当时是否在房间里，我说过突破30的力度足够强，我们可能会再上涨一点，下方可能会有买家。而34可能是在测试27高点的突破。所以如果我卖出了33的收盘价，我没有这样做——我当时是在买入——我会在34上方退出。然后在这里，这是一个窄幅交易区间，所以我不会在43上方买入，赌多头突破。我会等待看到一个非常强劲的多头突破，然后再买入。所以——还有30，我认为我们还会有一波上涨。嗯，36可能就是那一波上涨。我明白这可能是一个楔形，更高的低点主要趋势反转，但它也是一个交易区间日中间的窄幅交易区间，我不想在任何位置上方设置止损入场。但这就是我的想法。
So the message I’m trying to communicate today is: When you see a lot of trading range price action, that’s the old duck — it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s probably a duck, right? When you see a lot of trading range price action, it’s probably a trading range. And when there’s a trading range, I automatically start thinking limit order, scalp, limit order, scalp, buy low, buy more lower, sell high, sell more higher, and scalp, scalp, scalp, scalp, scalp. Right? And instead, “Aarr… look at that strong bar, Bar 30. I bet that’s the start of a bull trend. Or look at this strong rally up here — I bet it’s the start of a bull trend. Look at that bear breakout; maybe it’s a bear trend.”
所以我想今天传达的信息是：当你看到很多交易区间的价格行为时，那就是老鸭子——走路像鸭子，叫声像鸭子，很可能就是鸭子，对吧？当你看到很多交易区间的价格行为时，那很可能就是一个交易区间。而一旦出现交易区间，我会自动开始思考限价单、剥头皮、限价单、剥头皮、低买、更低再买、高卖、更高再卖、剥头皮、剥头皮、剥头皮、剥头皮、剥头皮。对吧？而实际上，“唉……看看那根强势K线，30号K线。我敢打赌那是多头趋势的开始。或者看看这里的强势拉升——我敢打赌那是多头趋势的开始。看看那个空头突破；也许那是空头趋势。”
Until I’m clearly wrong, I’m going to assume I’m right on a trading range day. But this is, I think, a really good example of a trading range day. Lots of big swings and limit order scalpers, if they manage their trades correctly, collected a lot of points today.
除非我明显判断错误，否则我会在交易区间日内假设自己是对的。但我认为，这是一个非常典型的交易区间日例子。今天出现了许多大幅波动，限价单短线交易者如果能正确管理交易，可以获得大量点数。
Okay, I hope everybody has a good night.
好了，希望大家今晚都有一个好结果。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
关于 Al 的在线日间交易室的信息