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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/v-bottoms-gaps-and-climaxes/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:56
BPA trading room Q&A: February 26, 2015
BPA 交易室问答：2015年2月26日
I sold Crude Oil at 11:30. Since V-bottoms do not exist. I thought a test of the low, or at least the trading range, a higher probability. Would you explain why V-bottoms do not exist?
我在11:30卖出了原油。由于V形底不存在，我认为测试低点或至少测试交易区间的概率更高。你能解释一下为什么V形底不存在吗？
Video duration: 4min 28sec
视频时长：4分28秒
Video transcript
视频文字稿
V-bottoms not what you may think
V形底并非你所想的那样
V-bottoms are almost always something else. Just because I say they don’t exist does not mean the market has to continue down during breakouts. It’s similar to what happened to the bulls and to the bears in the Emini as well, right? Whenever I see a bear trend like this and the market’s 20 or 30 bars into the trend, and then I see the biggest looking bear bar of the entire screen, you have to be asking yourself, “Okay, that is an important bar. It’s probably either going to be an exhaustion bar or a measuring gap.” Which is more likely? Ok, that is the question: “Which is more likely?” And always, always, always Exhaustion Gap is more likely than Measuring Gap. It can become a Measuring Gap, but it’s more likely to be an Exhaustion Gap.
V形底几乎总是由其他因素构成。我说它们不存在，并不意味着市场在突破时必须继续下跌。这与多头和空头在迷你标普（ES）中遭遇的情况类似，对吧？每当我看到这样的空头趋势，市场已经进入趋势的20或30根K线时，然后我看到整屏最大的空头K线，你就必须问自己：“好吧，这是一根重要的K线。它很可能是衰竭K线或等距缺口。”哪种情况更可能？好吧，这就是问题所在：“哪种情况更可能？”衰竭缺口总是比等距缺口更可能发生。它可能变成等距缺口，但更可能是衰竭缺口。
So with that in mind, exhaustion — usually, you’re going to get a couple legs sideways to up for 10 bars or so. When I see 56, I just let it go. Sometimes, I’ll miss a huge trend that just crashes, but I’d rather miss it because I know the probability is higher that it’s probably a more exhaustive move and exhaustive sell climax than it is a Measuring Gap. So for me, that’s why I would not be looking to short.
因此，考虑到这一点，衰竭——通常你会看到几段横向或向上移动的腿，持续约10根K线左右。当我看到56号K线时，我就让它过去了。有时，我会错过一个突然暴跌的大趋势，但我宁愿错过它，因为我知道概率更高的是，这可能是一个更衰竭的走势和衰竭的卖出高潮，而不是等距缺口。所以对我来说，这就是我为什么不会寻求做空的原因。
Look at other timeframes
查看其他时间框架
Now, in terms of V-bottoms, this is not a V-bottom. It depends. Obviously, this fits the conventional definition of a V-bottom. The market was in a bear Micro Channel and a bull Micro Channel, without much of a pullback. If you look at a smaller timeframe chart, there’s probably a Micro Wedge or a Final Flag in there – I’ll put up at a one-minute chart. Most V-bottoms are something else on smaller timeframe charts. On the one-minute chart, it’s a Wedge Bottom.
关于V型底，这并不是一个V型底。这要看情况。显然，这符合V型底的传统定义。市场处于一个空头微通道和一个多头微通道中，没有太多的回撤。如果你看看更小的时间框架图表，里面可能有一个微楔形或一个最终旗形——我会展示一个一分钟图表。大多数V型底在更小的时间框架图表上都是其他形态。在一分钟图表上，这是一个楔形底。
So, V-bottoms are almost always something else. What about a 60-minute chart? A Final Flag reversal, Expanding Triangle, three pushes down, one, two, three, or one, two, three. Anyway, it’s an Expanding Triangle bottom. On the five-minute chart, you can call it a V-bottom. Usually if you get a V-bottom, and it’s not a Final Flag and it’s not a Major Trend Reversal, usually you’ll get a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal later. This is the Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, not very many bars down, so probably a minor reversal in a trading range. But that is the first opportunity that the pullback bulls really had to get a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
所以，V型底几乎总是其他形态。那么60分钟图表呢？一个最终旗形反转，扩张三角形，三次向下推动，一、二、三，或者一、二、三。总之，这是一个扩张三角形底。在五分钟图表上，你可以称之为V型底。通常情况下，如果你遇到一个V型底，它既不是最终旗形，也不是主要趋势反转，那么通常你稍后会遇到一个更高的低点主要趋势反转。这就是更高的低点主要趋势反转，下跌的K线不多，所以可能是在交易区间内的一个小反转。但这是回撤多头真正获得更高低点主要趋势反转的第一个机会。
My point is that V-bottoms — I never think of them in terms of V-bottoms. This is what you would call a V-bottom, but I would not think of it in those terms. It’s like all those stupid candle terms, like Haramis and Dojis and Shooting Stars; it’s all nonsense. You try to apply some magical term to the thing as if saying the word increases the chances that you’re going to make money, and that’s not how I think. How I think is support and resistance. The market’s always probing and it needs to go too far to find out how far “far enough” is. So whenever I see a big bar late in a trend, I’m thinking, “Probably an exhaustive move and probably a reversal soon.” Usually, when you get this, you’ll get a Micro Double Bottom, arguably down 56, up 57, down 58. And I just showed on the one-minute chart it actually was a Micro Wedge.
我的观点是，我从不把V型底看作是V型底。这就是你所说的V型底，但我不会用这种方式来思考它。这就像那些愚蠢的蜡烛图术语一样，比如孕线、十字线和射击之星；这些都是废话。你试图将某个神奇的术语应用到事物上，好像说出这个词就能增加你赚钱的机会，但这不是我的思维方式。我的思维方式是支撑和阻力。市场一直在试探，它需要走得太远才能发现“足够远”是多远。所以，每当我在趋势后期看到一个大K线时，我就会想：“这可能是耗尽性走势，可能很快就会反转。”通常情况下，当你遇到这种情况时，你会遇到一个微型双底，可以说是在56号K线下跌，57号K线上涨，58号K线下跌。我刚才在一分钟图表上展示了，这实际上是一个微楔形。
But in any case, when I see 56, I’m not going to short. I’m not going to short. It’s the biggest bear bar in a trend that’s gone on for 30 or 40 bars, and it’s more likely to be an Exhaustion Gap leading to a rally, if not on 58, then soon. On the Emini, we had this, but we went down further. So to me, I would not take the short because of the risk of exhaustion.
但无论如何，当我看到56号K线时，我不会做空。我不会做空。这是持续了30或40根K线的趋势中最大的空头K线，它更可能是一个衰竭缺口，导致反弹，如果不在58号K线，也会在不久之后。在迷你标普上，我们遇到了这种情况，但我们进一步下跌了。所以对我来说，我不会做空，因为有衰竭的风险。
What the Emini was doing at same time
同一时间迷你标普在做什么
Emini, you can say the same thing. Well, wasn’t 58 a potential V-bottom? Wasn’t 62 a potential V-bottom? Yes, but I needed more — I got more information with the Low 2 late in a bull trend, and then on the big sell climax, 67. Usually, when you get a V-bottom — you call this a V-bottom — usually, you get a Micro Double Bottom with it, or you get a Final Flag like this. Or usually, you get a pullback to a Higher Low in the Second Leg Up. But sometimes, they look like Crude Oil did today, a textbook V-bottom.
迷你标普也是一样。嗯，58是不是潜在的V底？62是不是潜在的V底？没错，但我需要更多信息 — — 在多头趋势后期得到的第二低点给了我更多信息，接着在大规模卖出高潮的67。通常，出现V底的时候，你就会这么称呼它 — — 通常会伴随一个微型双底，或者像这样出现一个最终旗形。或者通常会在第二腿上行出现回撤至更高低点。但有时候，它们会像今天的原油那样，呈现出教科书式的V底。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
Information on Al’s Online day trading room
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