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原文链接: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/what-trading-drawdowns-to-expect/ 生成时间: 2026-09-04 14:53
BPA trading room Q&A: October 6, 2015
BPA交易室问答：2015年10月6日
What kind of drawdowns should a trader expect at different stages of their development?
交易者在不同的成长阶段，应该预期会遇到什么样的回撤？
Audio duration: 7min 09sec — Scroll down for chart references at end
音频时长：7分09秒——请向下滚动查看结尾处的图表参考
Audio transcript
Trading drawdowns — Your risk on any one trade
交易回撤——你在任何一笔交易中的风险
Well, obviously that’s very open-ended and there’s so many variables, right? In general, a trader should try to risk no more than 1 or 2 percent of his account on any one trade. And when you first start out, you’re going to be losing all the time because you’re going to be making all the mistakes that everyone in the history of trading makes for the first several years when they start out. After they make the same mistake 20 times, they start making it less, and then they concentrate on all the other mistakes, and eventually you get through all the mistakes and you figure them all out, and all of a sudden you start discovering that you’re not getting the drawdowns anymore.
嗯，显然这是一个非常开放的问题，变量也很多，对吧？一般来说，交易者应该尝试在任何一笔交易中，将风险控制在账户的1%到2%以内。当你刚开始交易时，你会一直亏损，因为你会犯所有交易历史中新手在前几年都会犯的错误。在犯了同样的错误20次之后，他们开始减少犯错，然后专注于其他错误，最终你会经历所有错误并找出解决方法，突然间你会发现自己不再遇到回撤了。
But it’s fairly common for a trader to blow an account, even a really good trader. Richard Dennis back in the ‘80s — I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of The Turtles. Linda Raschke, she made a career of saying she was one of Richard Dennis’s Turtles. It was kind of a Pygmalion story. Richard Dennis had the belief that anyone could be turned into a trader, and he took a group of people and turned them into traders. So you always hear the argument that do you have to be born a trader or can you learn how to be a trader? It’s not like being a center in the NBA where you have to be born 7-feet-tall. That’s not what it is with a trader. I don’t believe you have to be born a trader. I think you can learn how to trade. I think you can learn how to do eye surgery. I did, right? You can learn law. You can learn any skill, and I think trading is no different from any other career, and you can learn it. It’s not like you need some special physical, intellectual ability to become a good trader. You do not have to be 6-foot-6 and 300 pounds, like an offensive lineman in the NFL. You do not have to be 7-feet-tall, like a center in the NBA. You just have to love what you’re doing, and you have to apply yourself, and focus really hard on getting rid of the problems. You just have to focus really hard on being objective and trying to do the right thing, just consistently doing the right thing.
但即使是非常优秀的交易者，也经常会爆仓。比如80年代的理查德·丹尼斯——你可能听说过“海龟交易者”。琳达·拉什克一直声称自己是理查德·丹尼斯的海龟交易者之一，这有点像皮格马利翁的故事。理查德·丹尼斯相信任何人都可以成为交易者，他挑选了一群人并将他们培养成交易者。所以你经常会听到这样的争论：你是天生就是交易者，还是可以学习成为交易者？这不像NBA的中锋，你必须天生身高7英尺。交易者并非如此。我不相信你必须天生就是交易者。我认为你可以学习如何交易。我认为你可以学习如何做眼科手术。我做到了，对吧？你可以学习法律。你可以学习任何技能，我认为交易与其他职业没有什么不同，你可以学习它。你不需要特殊的身体或智力能力才能成为优秀的交易者。你不需要像NFL的进攻线球员那样身高6英尺6英寸、体重300磅。你不需要像NBA的中锋那样身高7英尺。你只需要热爱你所做的事情，投入自己，并全力以赴地解决问题。你只需要全力以赴地保持客观，努力做正确的事情，坚持不懈地做正确的事情。
But let me go back to Richard Dennis. He was a pretty famous fund manager back in the ‘80s and he had, I don’t know, $100 million, $200 million dollars under management. And twice, I believe — I could be wrong on this, but I believe twice in his career he blew his account. In other words, twice he lost so much of his clients’ money that he had to close his fund. And when you hear about somebody blowing an account — let’s say an individual trader — let’s say you have a $5,000 account. Blowing your account, if you get down to zero, you blow your account. But you can blow your account and have more than zero. To me, a blown account is the account has dropped to a level where there’s not enough margin left to trade the style that you want to trade. So let’s say you trade two contracts and your account level drops to $3,000, and the margin is $2,000 per contract. To me, you have blown your account. You cannot trade the way you want to trade without putting more money in your account.
但让我回到 Richard Dennis 的例子上。他在 80 年代是一位非常著名的基金经理，管理着大约 1 亿或 2 亿美元的资金。我认为他职业生涯中有两次爆仓——我可能说错了，但我认为他确实有两次爆仓。换句话说，他两次损失了大量客户资金，不得不关闭基金。当你听到某人爆仓时——比如说一个个人交易者——假设你有 5000 美元的账户。如果你亏到零，那就是爆仓。但你也可以爆仓，账户里还剩下一点钱。对我来说，爆仓是指账户跌到一个水平，没有足够的保证金来执行你想要的交易策略。比如说，你交易两个合约，账户余额跌到 3000 美元，而保证金是每个合约 2000 美元。对我来说，你已经爆仓了。如果不往账户里追加资金，你就无法按照你想要的方式交易。
I’ve never blown an account, but I had the good fortune of making a lot of money as an eye surgeon, so I always had enough money in my accounts. However, I lost for 10 years; I just kept losing, losing, losing, doing the same stupid things over and over again. Every now and then, I’d feel like I’d rid myself of one type of trading mistake and then I’d discover some new one and I’d try that one for several months And then when I got bored with that I’d go back to the old one that I missed because I hadn’t used it for several months. So I’m being facetious, right? But the point is that it just takes a long time to stop making the mistakes and to get really serious.
我从来没有爆过仓，但我很幸运，作为眼科医生赚了很多钱，所以我的账户里总是有一大笔钱。然而，我亏损了 10 年；我不断地亏损，不断地犯同样的愚蠢错误。有时候，我觉得自己已经摆脱了一种交易错误，然后又会发现新的错误，并尝试这种错误几个月。当我对这种错误感到厌倦时，我就会回到以前的错误上，因为我几个月没有用过它了，所以我很怀念它。我是在开玩笑，对吧？但关键是，要停止犯错误并真正认真起来，需要很长时间。
I think a lot of traders, when they start out, believe that they want to be a trader, but they don’t believe it’s possible, so something inside of them makes them feel like “I’m not good enough. I really don’t have the skills necessary to be successful at this. I don’t have the advantages that other traders had. Somebody went to Harvard, and then they worked at Goldman Sachs, and they have this team of software writers around them, and they have all these support people all day long cheering them on and giving them advice, and they have a big advantage.” That’s nonsense. That is all part of the search for the false god, and when traders start out, that is a common thing. We all want to believe in something and we always want a parent figure to take care of us. And I think one of the biggest difficulties traders have starting out is they believe they cannot do it on their own. They cannot do it unless there’s somebody there holding their hand and preventing them from doing something terrible — committing trading suicide, blowing an account And it takes a long time to get past that, but I think anybody can get past that. And again, I think you’re not born a trader. If you love what you’re doing , and you have the determination, and you really make up your mind that you’re going to stop making mistakes, I think it’s doable.
我认为许多交易者刚入行时，会觉得自己想成为交易者，但又不相信这是可能的，于是内心会产生一种“我不够好”的感觉。他们觉得自己缺乏成功所必需的技能，没有其他交易者那样的优势。有人上过哈佛，后来在高盛工作，身边有一整队软件开发人员，整天有很多人为他们加油、出主意，因而拥有巨大优势。这种想法纯属胡扯。这正是在寻找虚假的神灵，交易者起步时普遍会有这种心理。我们都想相信某些东西，总希望有一位父母式的人物来照顾我们。我认为交易者起步时最大的困难之一，就是他们觉得自己无法独自完成这件事。他们认为若没有有人牵着手、阻止他们做傻事——比如交易自杀、爆仓——就无法成功。克服这一点需要时间，但我相信任何人都能克服。再说一次，我觉得交易不是天生的。如果你热爱自己所做的事，具备决心，并且下定决心不再犯错，我认为这是可以做到的。
And back to your question, what kind of drawdowns a trader can expect, it all depends. There’s so many variables and a big one is how determined are you to continue to do stupid things? How unwilling are you to give up doing stupid things and then moving on to being objective? And each of us is different. It took me a long time, and now I’m very good at it.
回到你的问题，一个交易者可以预期什么样的回撤，这完全取决于情况。变量有很多，其中最大的变量是你有多大的决心继续做愚蠢的事情？你有多不愿意放弃做愚蠢的事情，转而变得客观？我们每个人都不一样。我花了很长时间，现在我做得很好。
Now, I still do stupid things. Probably once or twice a day, I do something and say, “Al, why — why’d you do that? That was just stupid.” But when I do something stupid, I get out within seconds. As soon as I say, “Al, you’re an idiot,” — as soon as I say that, I get out. And I don’t sit there and say, “Oh, I’m going to try to trade my way out of this.” I say, “No, I bought, and the market is not a buy — I got to get out.” It’s very straightforward. I might give myself five seconds and try to use a limit order to get out, break-even, sometimes a one-tick profit, sometimes a two or three-tick loss. But if I decide to do something stupid, within 15 seconds I’m out, and I don’t care if I lose three ticks or five ticks. I don’t care. If I’m doing something stupid, that means I should be doing the opposite, probably going to do the opposite.
我现在仍然会做蠢事。大概一天一次或两次，我会做某事然后对自己说：“Al，为什么——为什么你会这么做？这真是太愚蠢了。”但当我做出蠢事时，我会在几秒内平仓。一旦我说：“Al，你真是个白痴，——一说出来我就出场。”我不会坐在那里想：“哦，我要试着靠交易把自己从这局里救出来。”我说：“不，我买了，但市场并不是买盘——我必须出场。”这非常直接。我可能给自己五秒钟的时间，尝试用限价单平盘，有时持平，有时赚一个tick，有时亏两个或三个tick。但如果我决定做蠢事，十五秒内我就会出场，无论亏三个tick还是五个tick我都不在乎。如果我在做蠢事，那就说明我应该做相反的事情，大概率会去做相反的操作。
I think that is important for traders. They have to not be hopeful . They have to be objective. And if they conclude that they’ve done something stupid — well, they got to get out. And the other side of that is, if they decide that it’s stupid to not do something, they got to go do the something . Like Bar 10, it’s stupid not to be short. Bar 26, it’s stupid not to be short. Bar 57, when it closes, it’s stupid not to be long. So to me, that’s the other side of it. Just as its important to avoid stupid mistakes, doing stupid things — there are mistakes of omission as well. If you’re a trader and you decide, “Oh, Bar 10 — you see the close at 10, the close at 11? The market’s going down.” Well, if you say the market’s going down — sell. You know where the stop is — it’s above 9, it’s above 7. Take the trade . Put the stop there. Trade small enough so that you don’t get in trouble if your stop gets hit. But that’s what you got to do.
我觉得这对交易者很重要。他们不能抱有侥幸心理，必须保持客观。如果他们认识到自己犯了愚蠢的错误，那就得离场。反过来说，如果他们觉得不做某事才是愚蠢的，他们就必须去做那件事。比如 10 号 K 线，不做空是愚蠢的；26 号 K 线，也不做空是愚蠢的；57 号 K线收盘时，不做多是愚蠢的。对我来说，这就是另一面。就像避免愚蠢错误一样重要，做愚蠢的事——同样也是遗漏的错误。如果你是交易者，并且你想，“哦，10号K线——你看到10收盘价，11收盘价？市场在下跌。” 如果你说市场在下跌——就卖出。你知道止损在哪里——在9之上，也在7之上。进场交易。把止损放在那里。交易规模要足够小，以至于即使止损被触发也不至于陷入麻烦。但这就是你必须做的。
Al Brooks
Al Brooks
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